That has been my assumption about the failure too. I haven't seen any info on the underlying geology, but at some point there has to be some bedrock below - it is a ridge after all.
CVG,
Thank you for those estimates. 640,000 cfs is a frightening number. Fortunately virtually impossible for the conditions to set up that way. Half of that is still a devastating flow for the region - likely inundate well over 150 sq miles, tens of thousands of homes.
Thanks again.
Peter,
That sounds right. I did you the weir equation to get a ballpark of absolute worst case scenario - over 400,000 cfs. I think it is more reasonable to think worst likely case is more like 300,000 cfs - which is still double the capacity of the downstream levees.
Thanks, Steve
Greetings,
I work on river issues in California. I am trying to figure out how to estimate the potential flow rate if the Oroville Dam auxiliary spillway fails. Can you help?
worst case scenario - the whole spillway fails, creating a 25' x 1450' opening, with 25' of head at first, 25 square...
