44% cost increase for TransMountain 1

[1503-44]

Trans Mountain Corp. is 80% complete with its 590,000-b/d Trans Mountain crude oil pipeline expansion project (TMEP), with mechanical completion expected by end 2023. The company expects TMEP to enter service first-quarter 2024. Once TMEP is completed, the pipeline system will have a total capacity of 890,000 b/d.

TMEP consists of installing 992 km (615 miles) of 36-in. and 42-in. OD pipe, reactivating 193 km of pipe, and constructing 12 new pump stations, 19 new storage tanks at existing terminals in Burnaby and Sumas, BC, and Edmonton, Alta., and three new berths at Westridge marine terminal in Burnaby. The Alberta portion of the project is complete. All pump stations across both provinces are complete. Berth 1 at the Westridge marine terminal is scheduled to be commissioned May 2023.

Project capacity is 80% committed to 11 shippers, representing a mix of Canadian and international producers and refiners, under 15 and 20-year take-or-pay contracts. The remaining 20% of capacity will be available for spot shipments.

Trans Mountain expects total project cost to be C$30.9 billion ($22.35 billion), a 44% increase from last year’s estimate. The company, a part of the Canadian government, says it is in the process of securing external financing to fund the project’s remaining cost. Canada bought the pipeline from Kinder Morgan Inc. in 2018. Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland has repeatedly said that the government well sell the pipeline once it’s complete.

Specific factors cited by Trans Mountain for the cost increases include “high global inflation and global supply chain problems; unprecedented floods in British Columbia; unexpected major archaeological discoveries; rough terrain between Merritt and Hope, BC; earthquake standards in the Burnaby Mountain tunnel; unexpected water disposal costs in the Sumas Prairie; and issues regarding densely populated areas between Sumas and Burnaby, BC.”

https://www.ogj.com/pipelines-trans...=CPS230327190&o_eid=7988I6312067A1B&rdx.ident

[pull]=omeda|7988I6312067A1B

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

 

[Gr8blu]

"Rough terrain between Merritt and Hope" ... really? What did they expect when going from the edge of the a valley floor up into a mountain pass? Did they even look at a terrain map?

"issues regarding densely populated areas between Sumas and Burnaby" ... really? The pipeline either has to pass through (or around) Abbotsford (pop 150k), Langley (pop 26k), and Surrey (pop 518k) - without adversely impacting the Fraser River watershed,

Neither of these is a "sudden surprise". Archaeological discoveries might be - although the lower third of the pipeline route runs through THREE known archaeological sites (between Merritt and Surrey).

Converting energy to motion for more than half a century

 

[1503-44]

You'd think so, but I guess it was a sudden surprise to somebody.

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

 

[IRstuff]

Cost is ALWAYS a factor in contract bidding, so the probability of overrun is way higher than what one would hope for.

Is this the first envelope or the second? i.e., is this the "blame previous management" or "re-organize"

Spoiler

There's an old joke where the new CEO finds a letter from the previous CEO saying, "I've left you 3 numbered envelopes with advice, but don't use them unless absolutely necessary"
So, the new CEO does their thing until the sh!% hits the fan, so they open the first envelope, and it says, "blame the previous management," which they do, and everything runs smoothly again.
Again, the sh!% hits the fan, so they open the second envelope and it says, "reorganize," which they do, and everything runs smoothly again.
Again, the sh!% hits the fan, and the third envelope says, "prepare three envelopes"

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg

faq731-376 forum1529 Entire Forum list

http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

 

[dik]

...another thing to thank Turdeau for.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[1503-44]

He probably deserves the least thanks of all. On the other hand, that's export earnings for Canada, so higher costs are passed on to the purchasers, not depleating Canada's pocketbook. Decreasing potential profits, but not a loss.

Canada's problem is normally getting around and past the US oil producer's competition on the way to export markets. Alaska on one side of the fence and the lower 48 on the other. Here the USA gets outflanked. A lot of pain getting there, but a bit of success, at least in some measure, in the end.

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."