AI designs an electric grid for Australia's NEM

[GregLocock]

Designing a power generation system that delivers an average of 24 gigawatts (GW) while accommodating the intermittency of renewables and aligning with typical daily demand curves requires a strategic mix of energy sources. Below is a proposed energy mix, along with associated costs and considerations:

Proposed Energy Mix​

1. Onshore Wind (30%)
   
   • Capacity: Approximately 24 GW installed capacity.
   • Capacity Factor: 30%
   • Average Contribution: 7.2 GW
2. Solar Photovoltaic (PV) (25%)
   
   • Capacity: Approximately 40 GW installed capacity.
   • Capacity Factor: 15%
   • Average Contribution: 6 GW
3. Offshore Wind (10%)
   
   • Capacity: Approximately 8 GW installed capacity.
   • Capacity Factor: 45%
   • Average Contribution: 3.6 GW
4. Natural Gas (20%)
   
   • Capacity: Approximately 6 GW installed capacity.
   • Capacity Factor: 80%
   • Average Contribution: 4.8 GW
5. Battery Storage (15%)
   
   • Capacity: Approximately 10 GW with 4-hour storage duration.
   • Role: To manage peak demand and balance intermittent renewable output.

Cost Estimates​

• Onshore Wind:
  
  • Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE): $40–$59 per megawatt-hour (MWh)
  • Total Annual Generation: 63,072 GWh
  • Annual Cost: Approximately $2.52–$3.72 billion
• Solar PV:
  
  • LCOE: $27–$56 per MWh
  • Total Annual Generation: 52,560 GWh
  • Annual Cost: Approximately $1.42–$2.94 billion
• Offshore Wind:
  
  • LCOE: $60–$100 per MWh
  • Total Annual Generation: 31,536 GWh
  • Annual Cost: Approximately $1.89–$3.15 billion
• Natural Gas:
  
  • LCOE: $45–$108 per MWh
  • Total Annual Generation: 42,048 GWh
  • Annual Cost: Approximately $1.89–$4.54 billion
• Battery Storage:
  
  • Cost: $209–$278 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) of installed capacity
  • Total Installed Capacity: 40,000 MWh
  • Total Capital Cost: Approximately $8.36–$11.12 billion
  • Annualized Cost: Assuming a 10-year lifespan, approximately $0.84–$1.11 billion per year

Total Annual Costs​

• Onshore Wind: $2.52–$3.72 billion
• Solar PV: $1.42–$2.94 billion
• Offshore Wind: $1.89–$3.15 billion
• Natural Gas: $1.89–$4.54 billion
• Battery Storage: $0.84–$1.11 billion

Total: Approximately $8.56–$15.46 billion per year

Considerations​

• Intermittency Management: The combination of wind and solar, complemented by battery storage and natural gas, aims to provide a stable and reliable power supply that matches typical daily demand curves.
• Capacity Factors: Capacity factors are based on typical values for Australia:
  
  • Onshore Wind: 30%
  • Solar PV: 15%
  • Offshore Wind: 45%
  • Natural Gas: 80%
• Battery Storage: Assumed to have a 4-hour storage capacity, suitable for managing daily peak demand and short-term fluctuations in renewable output.
• Cost Variability: LCOE ranges reflect variations in technology, location, financing, and operational factors.
• Inflation and Technological Advancements: Future costs may decrease due to technological improvements and economies of scale.

This proposed energy mix and cost estimate provide a framework for developing a reliable and cost-effective power generation system that aligns with Australia's renewable energy potential and typical demand patterns.


It should be noted that the new transmission lines need add a further $16B+maintenance , call that $2B per year.

So $17B/year for 24 GW= 8c/KWh in direct energy costs, which is not far off what we pay now. Of course it's used LCOE which is pretty political rather than accurate.

 

[GregLocock]

Replacing some of the renewables and gas with reactors gives

If we replace some of the wind, solar, and battery storage with 1 GW nuclear reactors to provide baseload power, the overall cost structure would change significantly. Below is an analysis comparing the original plan (dominated by renewables) with a nuclear-based alternative.

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Scenario 1: Renewables-Based Mix (Original Plan)​

• Average Output: 24 GW
• Components: Onshore Wind, Offshore Wind, Solar, Natural Gas, Batteries
• Total Annual Cost: AUD 8.56 – 15.46 billion
• Additional Transmission Cost: AUD 16 billion (one-time investment)

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Scenario 2: Nuclear-Based Mix​

Changes:

• Replace 12 GW of renewable + storage with 12 x 1 GW nuclear reactors
• Reduce onshore wind, offshore wind, solar, and battery capacity accordingly
• Keep some gas capacity for peak demand
• Require less new transmission investment

Key Assumptions for Nuclear:​

• Capacity Factor: ~90%
• LCOE (Levelized Cost of Electricity): AUD 90–150 per MWh
• Capital Cost: AUD 8–12 billion per reactor (for 1 GW each)
• Construction Time: 10–15 years

New Cost Breakdown:​

• 12 GW Nuclear: AUD 96–144 billion(capital cost)
  • Annually (assuming 40-year lifespan, 5% financing cost): AUD 6.4–9.6 billion
• Remaining Renewables (12 GW mix of wind, solar, gas): AUD 4–6 billion per year
• Reduced Transmission Costs: Possibly AUD 5–8 billion instead of AUD 16 billion