Australia east coast electricty market today 2

[GregLocock]

Wind is blowing in NSW and SA, so vic gets cheap electricity and coal plants lose money hand over fist

and an interesting statistic on renewables penetration.

If you ignore the headline figure, the max penetration, the min tells you how much more you need to install, or some idea of how much storage you need.


Another take on that is the fuel breakdown over the last 12 months

68% fossil fuel.

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[GregLocock]

And now we are running on coal, gas and diesel, including the mendicant state which boast about renewables. We are getting some batteries

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[GregLocock]

We've got a big high stuck over Australia. As such the wind (the green bit) has stopped blowing continent wide for several days. As you can see several billion dollars worth of battery (pale blue just under hydro) are doing damn all as well. So, if you want to replace coal with wind, you're going to need a lot more wind, and/or hundreds of billion dollars of batteries.

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[hokie66]

I don't understand. The politicians are windy enough. They just need to be collocated with the windmills.

 

[GregLocock]

Here's screenshot from openNEM showing the recent performance of South Australia's much vaunted wind powered grid. Note that on the cursored night for 15 hours the grid was 95% powered by gas and imported coal power.
So, if they were going to keep the power on overnight they need 15 hours times 1.5 GW, 22.5 GW of batteries. This will cost around $45 Billion. That's about 1/3 of annual state government expenditure and would have to be repeated every 15-20 years. It's also about 1% of the entire global annual battery manufacturing capacity, to provide one night's power for 2 million people. Battery production is expected to double by 2030, but then other first world countries claim to be going down the wind+solar+storage path, so they will need to buy batteries as well.

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[GregLocock]

22.5 GWh, not GW. Also notice that renewables weren't crash hot for the preceding and follwing days, so that battery size if of the lower end of what is needed.

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[GregLocock]

and so it starts. Australia's undesigned Field of Dreams style renewable grid starts knocking excess solar off the grid.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-27/solar-juggernaut-sparks-first-low-demand-warning/104406680

It's going to be a long and confusing summer for people with rooftop systems. My prediction, at least one suburb with old style domestic solar will be cut off as it tries to feed excess solar into a grid that is chock full. Politicians will then have to explain why houses that are generating power can't have any. Popcorn time.



Cheers

Greg Locock


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