Preliminary calculations indicate that, as of 12:00 pm (PDT) on Sept. 30, 2016, there is 0.006% to 0.2% chance (less than 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 500) of a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake being triggered on the Southern San Andreas Fault within the next seven days through October 7, with the likelihood decreasing over time
A few weeks before this made the news, I was noticing a lot of earthquake insurance ads; unusual because that insurance is generally unaffordable here (no I don't have it and we're in "D". Our mover and shaker is the Rose Canyon Fault the next canyon over). Time for conspiracy theories.
In the 90's, i owned a home about two miles from the San Andreas in SoCal. The insurance had a $35,000 deductible. It only covered repair of the structure, nothing else. It wasn't terribly expensive, but it would have required complete collapse of the house in order to be of any value. I survived the Whittier, Landers, Big Bear and Northridge quakes (the closes was about 25 miles) and all the hundreds of aftershocks and none caused significant damage. Unless you are located very close to the epicenter, structural damage is likely to be small. this swarm is located in the Salton Sea, a long way from the city and unlikely to trigger a quake closer to LA. I think this whole warning deal is an overblown political stunt.
Well, I had to fan the flames and advise the local new agency that the sister fault they've been talking about feeds the Rose Canyon fault, which includes the Spanish Bight Fault which passes directly under the corner of the two new nuclear aircraft carrier wharves constructed in Coronado.
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