Most chillers have a current draw reading on the control panel. A chiller is sized to provide a specified cooling tonnage capacity. If that capacity is not met, but the current draw is close to 100%, then your chiller is undersized.
Capacity is measured with flow and Delta T. A higher return temp by itself means nothing - that could be an indication that the end-user coils (AHU's?) are not sufficient. The chiller may still be able to compensate. It's the temperature difference that's important. Nevertheless, it still has to be combined with flow (and technically the fluid properties, too) to get an accurate idea of the load/capacity.
Q = Cp*m*dT, where Cp is the specific heat of the fluid, m is the mass flow rate, and dT is the temperature difference.
To check rated capacity, you will need a load that corresponds to the peak value, or at one of the certified test points performed at the factory when it was purchased.
Large centrifugals are usually run constantly during cooling cycles, and the load variance is absorbed by the chiller turn-down capability. If you get surging, the current draw is always at 100%, and you cannot supply water at the desired temperature, then the chiller is undersized. Surging does not happen as often in low load conditions (less than 10-20% rated load) because the chiller's internal safeties cycle the machine off. If you get a lot of on-off's (short-cycling), then the chiller is tremendously over-sized, because you're driving it into a regime below its minimum turndown.
Anything inbetween, and it gets a little harder to tell. All things being equal, the current draw and/or failure to meet supply temperature is usually the basic indicator for chiller performance issues (undersizing, refrigerant loss, or fouling).