China: is the worm about to turn? Or wishful thinking?

[jmw]

This interesting article caught my eye.
I've no doubt many would like to believe it is true but is it too simplistic?
Does it ignore political factors?
Is the fear of the poor justified?

Despite the number of millionaires and billionaires in China today and the vast "middle class" the majority of people are still dirt poor. The fear is that they too will want their share of the wealth. Well paid jobs and the opportunity to own their own homes, cars and all that goes with it. The real fear is that they will not wait too long and that a peaceful transition over time is an unrealistic expectation. Why else has China had such a large army except as a protection against the masses? The trouble is that following Tienanmen Square protests the choice offered to the people of more economic freedom or more political freedom has resulted in a dangerous but expedient choice for some.
Noticable too that the Government is being more cautious with signs of dissent such as the village surrounded after the villagers protested about land being taken with no compensation.

Shanghai may have shopping malls filled with busy wealthy shoppers but China has also built cities where hardly anyone lives except maintenance people and a few inhabitants.
One gets the feeling that China has a tiger by the tail and isn't sure what to do but is praying things work out the way they need.

But maybe this view is also wildly off.
There are plenty of signs but what do they really portend?
Will whatever happens at last mean something good for other economies? Somehow I doubt there will be a happy ending for anyone.




JMW

http://www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

[cranky108]

Gee, they really want better paying jobs, and a better standard of living. And people protesting here for better paying walfare, and a better standard of living.

So what's in common between the two?
What's different between the two?

 

[cloa]

The corruption and corrupt practices is a big killer- its the cause of its unreliable quality so importers are turning to countries such as Vietnam.

 

[cranky108]

Corruption is everywhere where big money can be made. Power and influence are just a means.

Personally I believe the solution is public displays of punishment. Which is why we are seeing more of it here, as well as China.

Have you seen the new executive prisens?

 

[patprimmer]

Yes

In the USA the major occurrence is contribution to campaign funds.

The poorer the country, the more likely it is that underpaid civil servants will earn the living via tips, just like waiters in the USA.

Different cultures and even different individuals vary on how they divide the grey areas differentiating corruption and gratitude or genuine support.

Having said that I agree that China has issues with meeting Western stds. re corruption and theft of IP. Of course Western stds very much protect the wealthy and the status quo. It is extremely difficult for foreigners to pursue a legal claim against a Chinese national in China. Chines ethics are very much about sharing foreign wealth more evenly with poor Chinese or supporting family by any means.



Regards
Pat
See FAQ731-376 for tips on use of eng-tips by professional engineers &

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm

for site rules

 

[cranky108]

China already has had a difficult time meeting western stds for manufactured equipment, but many companies have not taken it as much of a concern. Prior to that it was Japan.

I think China has learned that western consumers are concerned with quality, and will react to poor quality.
I haven't seen that as much in South America. So you do see lower quality goods, and at a lower price than in the US.

So I believe China is learning the power of the consumer. The next lesson might be the power of the new Chinese consumers might want better quality from there goverment.

 

[jmw]

Chinese consumers wanting better "quality" from their government might do well to recall that the result of the Tienanmen Square protest was tacit consent to more consumer freedoms and a form of capitalism in exchange for more political freedom.
But are the Chinese really taking quality to heart?
Though not exclusively a Chinese problem, "Quality Fade" is a recognised phenomena.
It pursuit of markets costs are trimmed and then trimmed some more after winning contracts. There are some pretty alarming stories about how they get past tests.
This article is from back in 2007. Can they have turned it around so quickly?
A more recent article is here

JMW

http://www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

[patprimmer]

It is the consumer and the competition who ultimately sets both the price and quality.

The Chinese are turning it around very quickly, however like anywhere else they have a variety of qualities, depending on the individusals you are dealing with.



Regards
Pat
See FAQ731-376 for tips on use of eng-tips by professional engineers &

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm

for site rules

 

[drawoh]

jmw,

For a good insiders view of all this, I recommend Poorly Made In China by Paul Midler.

JHG

 

[MiketheEngineer]

Look at Japan right after WWII - burned out piece of rubble.

They started manufacturing "cheap" products which they basically copied from the USA.

Today, the have one of the highest standards of living.

We buy a lot of equipment from China - took us about 6 months to get it "right" - but it is as good or better than we were getting here or England or Germany - at exactly half the price. That was 10+ years ago - now the price has gone way up and we are looking back at US suppliers, etc. Also we don't have wait 12-16 weeks for delivery.

The Chinese want telephones, microwaves, cars, houses, etc and you don't do that on a $100 a week salary.

Look at Mexico - many (most) companies have pulled out of there - too much corruption, rising salaries, drug cartels, etc.

What goes around - comes around!!!

 

[Metalhead97]

Personally, I hope China develops an affluent (by western standards) middle-class. However, the only way this is going to happen is if China stops artificially devaluing its currency. Once Chinese workers can buy American products you'll know a middle-class is starting to form.

metalhead

 

[CastMetal]

iPads seem to sell pretty well. Even at the going rate of two months salary.

Comprehension is not understanding. Understanding is not wisdom. And it is wisdom that gives us the ability to apply what we know, to our real world situations

 

[KENAT]

Just what American made consumer products were you planning on shipping to China Metalhead?

Posting guidelines faq731-376

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

(probably not aimed specifically at you)
What is Engineering anyway: faq1088-1484​

 

[Metalhead97]

Cars and Levi's jeans.

 

[KENAT]

How many Levi's are still actually made in the US?

The cars were the only thing that sprang to my mind.

Posting guidelines faq731-376

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

(probably not aimed specifically at you)
What is Engineering anyway: faq1088-1484​

 

[patprimmer]

Good luck selling US made cars anywhere outside the Americas unless some real serious design and manufacturing improvements occur along with recognising and designing to the target market tastes.

Regards
Pat
See FAQ731-376 for tips on use of eng-tips by professional engineers &

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm

for site rules

 

[KENAT]

I don't know Pat, last I heard Buicks were oddly popular in China - though I believe some (or maybe only components) are already being made in China.

Posting guidelines faq731-376

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

(probably not aimed specifically at you)
What is Engineering anyway: faq1088-1484​

 

[Metalhead97]

For some reason, they love Buicks in China. However, it's not the common worker that's buying them. The main problem is that the best product out the USA is still military stuff.

 

[KENAT]

Right, as long as we're willing to buy loads of stuff from a country we refuse to sell some of our best products to then it's difficult to imagine the balance of payments or whatever evening out much.

Posting guidelines faq731-376

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

(probably not aimed specifically at you)
What is Engineering anyway: faq1088-1484​

 

[cranky108]

The question maybe when will China adapt international standards for quality, and intelectional property?