Con Edison Aging Assets 4

[Mbrooke]

For those who don't know Con Edison has a lot of moribund equipment (transmission and distribution) in service where as Eversource, JCP&L, PSE&G, National Grid, Central Hudson and the like have all been aggressively replacing aging assets the last 20-30 years.

The result as I predicted last year- not good-

Hundreds Left In The Dark After Bronx Manhole Fire Knocks Out Power In Mott Haven

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFm4Swe0930

(remember "customers" is not people, 1 customer can be a building with thousands of tenets aka "utilities included")

Con Edison asks 116,000 Queens residents not to use air conditioners during heat wave

https://abc7ny.com/con-edison-queens-conserve-energy-reduce-power/6326527/

ConEd asks 80K customers in Bronx to not use AC amid heat wave repairs

https://abc7ny.com/con-edison-bronx-queens-conserve-energy/6329690/

"Crews are working to restore power to 1,000 customers, about half of whom are in the Bronx. They have already restored service to about 6,000 customers since Sunday."

https://www.qgazette.com/articles/c...-the-heat-to-keep-power-flowing-to-customers/

Feeder cables out and manhole fires with 5% or 8% voltage reduction in place.

The secondary network arrangement makes it worse in that when multiple primary feeder cables fail those remaining in service begin overloading degrading their longevity/integrity (cables that are already significantly aged) leading to more failures down the road. A vicious cycle...

My question is- what would cost to gradually upgrade the system? Is there a technical reason behind not being able to make investments in new system assets?

This will only get worse. The big one is coming btw.

 

[DTR2011]

TBM>>CBM>>RTF Maintenance

A similar situation occurred in the Midwest in the late 1990’s.

I can’t comment on NY, but in the Midwest, the local guys were sure upper / middle management were making huge bonuses prior to shutting down half the city, including the financial district.

I got paid to sit with the fire department as they sprayed down severely overloaded transformers to cool them off.

There were cable faults that happened to be close to underground oxygen lines that sent manholes flying in the air.

 

[itsmoked]

Ah, Con Edison must be understudies of the true masters of rotting infrastructure. PG&E

Keith Cress
kcress -

http://www.flaminsystems.com

 

[Mbrooke]

Wow! Is that the line bracket which failed starting the campfire? That is bad, though I am not surprised.

I'm bad with acronyms, but what is:

TBM>>CBM>>RTF Maintenance

 

[DTR2011]

Back in the day, assets were inspected on a time based schedule, based on either manufacture or end user experience. Ex-test the transformer ever 10 years (full test). OCBs might be 3-5 years. (TBM=Time Based Maintenance)..

Maintenance is expensive. Some assets are difficult to switch out. A large Xfmr may take several days to test everything. As the voltage level increases, the difficulty to disconnect leads and connect test equipment increases. At 500&765kV, often the test set leads are not long enough and require special consideration. Test crew, Man lifts, switching, data analysis and record keeping. Some devices such as on line DGA can be useful. There are some other monitoring devices for breakers, surge Arrestors that have some success. Digital relays have self test alarms and perhaps TCM. I recently commissioned a scheme that looked at CT/VT/CCVT magnitudes to alarm for a ratio error. These are examples of CBM-Condition Based Maintenance. NERC has required for some time proof of some kind of protection systems, DC systems, trip circuit and instrument transformers. A Digital relay may go 10+ years between maintenance. When I do a 10 year routine on a relay in my area, our utility tries to coordinate the protection work with the outside “Doble” crews that may be timing the breaker or testing the transformer. If it’s a transformer, a DGA is generally taken prior to the outage to help address any issues.

RTF is Run to Failure. It may not be called this term exactly, but this maintenance approach is utilized by some until the consequences force a return to a better strategy.

I’m probably missing something, but typing on a phone is difficult.

 

[itsmoked]

RTF is indeed "Run Till(To) Failure".

Mbrooke; Yes the bottom one in front of the "PG&E" caused the camp fire.
I understand they still have hardware in service in the same area that is in the same shape as the top pictures.

Keith Cress
kcress -

http://www.flaminsystems.com

 

[Mbrooke]

That clears it up, thanks DTR2011!

@Itsmoked- I knew it was bad, I didn't know it was that bad! I can't thank you enough for those pics.

 

[cuky2000]

The asset modernization is more a financial than a technical issue. We hope ConEd with one of the highest energy rate in the county seriously start addressing the unreliable electrical infrastructure.

The modernization of PSE&G in NJ mentioned earlier is a relative success business/technical case. It was consisted in uprating the 1940’s 26kV distribution system with urban AIS substations replaced by 69 kV modern GIS substations. Unfortunately, the OH line was impacted with even less visual pleasant taller wood poles running all over cities and towns. The project financial test passed after the PUC approved increasing the electric rate and FERC granted an excepción to reclassify the new distribution/sub-transmission network of 69 kV as transmission asset to benefit for a faster return on the investment in accordance with the rate paying rules.

Utilities failing to recognize that the ‘bandage’ approach and resistance to introduce modern technology no only do not work but also have been demonstrated is counterproductive. Many utilities can not survive for long without modernizing the system or worst can go in bankruptcy if no properly implemented.


We can guess that Volts & Amp (technical) is no everything in the power industry is but rather is a financial driven issue compounded with social and political pressures. By personal experience in the last decade engaged with large modernization programs for several utilities, this a serious commitment requiring 10’s of $Billions .

We wish the best of luck to ConEd and particularly to our colleagues usually forgotten during the bonuses season.

 

[Mbrooke]

The modernization of PSE&G in NJ mentioned earlier is a relative success business/technical case. It was consisted in uprating the 1940’s 26kV distribution system with urban AIS substations replaced by 69 kV modern GIS substations. Unfortunately, the OH line was impacted with even less visual pleasant taller wood poles running all over cities and towns.

Yup- and not just at the 69kv level- upgrades at the 230kv level with new state of the art 230kv-69kv substation. Several generating switch yards have also been rebuilt. Automation on the 13kv system.

People lightly protested the taller poles- it was often in the news- even a few cartoons being drawn up about them. But in the end they were much needed as well as all the substations. NJ has been an overhaul and its paying off.

The thing is Con Ed should have started 40 years ago. If Con Ed had raised bills by 0.01% 40 years ago billions in infrastructure upgrades would have already been payed off.

At this point I hate to say it- its to late. With everything now past its expiration date there is not enough money to replace everything at once. Power outages will start to become the norm, politicians will blast Con Ed demanding answers. Eventually one way or another experts will reveal billions upon billions are needed immediately in order to replace severally aged (and abused) assets. What will happen next is up to the imagination.

 

[itsmoked]

I just don't see how PoCo's can run as investor companies. The entire focus of investor companies is to get the money out. They can run well for years until some weak knee'd CEO and board of directors take a bunch of heat from investors. At that they switch to looting to make themselves great which sucks all the maintenance money out. It looks good just long enough for these roaches to scurry away to retirement or new jobs just when the lack of years of maintenance starts to hit.

You can look at any power company and see that this will eventually happen.

Keith Cress
kcress -

http://www.flaminsystems.com

 

[cuky2000]

Mbrooke,

I do recall back in the early 1990's following other utility business models, ConEd upper management starter downsizing the engineering department and promising that the vacuum will be filled by an outside consulting firm that never happens.

At the end of the day, they through on the street a large number of engineers and frozen the new hiring. The management starts investing in foreign assets and pocketing the savings in the form of large bonuses and incentives and let the infrastructure deteriorate limiting the investment using the bandage approach resulting in what they managing today.

Probably they are banking in a magic bailout, but this may not find a lot of sympathy in any political party and the consumers. Big mess.

 

[Mbrooke]

Oh, it will be a big mess, trust me on this. NYC is the center of the universe. What happens there effects the US's image on the global stage. Con Edison is to big to fail so ultimately a bail out will happen possibly putting Con Ed in the public domain afterwards.

 

[itsmoked]

Might be what's needed!

An alternative would be the requirement of an outside group/company/board with the power to continuously audit the maintenance aspect of PoCos. This could level the playing field as then the investment return would have to be moderated or balanced against some standard of maintenance/updating.

Cuky; We had the same thing happen here at PG&E. I had a buddy who worked for them for 10 years happily then one day he told me they were laying off people to reduce the payroll. They were going to cover anything needed with contracted firms. They didn't. About every 2 years he'd describe more cuts and more cuts. The most knowledgeable staff were the first to go. I'm pretty sure that was also when virtually all maintenance stopped and only repairs continued.

Keith Cress
kcress -

http://www.flaminsystems.com

 

[Mbrooke]

Today's drama in Jackson Heights, multiple manholes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hCWG6jVNt4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grFv3lnU37g

To be fair this does happen a few times a year through out the city, but it seems to be on the rise during the summer.

 

[Mbrooke]

And, again, age is showing:

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/08/07/sporadic-power-outages-reported-in-manhattan/

 

[Mbrooke]

Regarding the latest incident judging by the outages my best guess is something happened at Rainy causing transmission supplies to East 75th st and West 110th st substation in Manhattan to drop.

Here is a transmission map- blue into Manhattan is 5 radial 138kv (sub)transmission lines, blue into Vernon is two 138kv (sub)transmission lines, Red is 345kv lines (two from Mott Haven in Bronx three from Farragut in Brooklyn) plus Ravenswood generation interconnects into Rainy:

https://imgur.com/pYoraqK

Singe Line of Rainy:

https://imgur.com/XLCe95r

Reports of flashes in the sky before or during the outage:

https://imgur.com/QdR0jyO

https://imgur.com/3prQqGI

So I'm now left wondering what was behind this event? Setting my watch for the next set of transmission outages.