Country electric demand forcasting

[noreddine]

I am currently working in a project in wich i need to forcast de electric demand using econometric methode. My question is : should i consider the demand by sector or it is better to work on global forcasting?

 

[DRWeig]

Hello noreddine,

Whether you forecast by sector or by total demand for a country depends on what the goal of your forecast is.

I made econometric models for a single utility, and I found that the most significant correlation was with the size of the civilian employed work force. Slightly less accurate was the population in general. Employment correlates with industrial growth.

Best to you,

Goober Dave

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[noreddine]

Dear Goober Dave,
First, would like to thank you for your interesting reply.
actually, the two methodes are good but i've read somwhere that forcasting by sectors would be prefferable. the economectric parameters i would take into consideration are GDP, demography and electricity price. i am not sure i'll get all these datas especially if i want to do by sector. for example, electricity price is not easy to calculate knowing that different electricity operators apply different electricity prices by voltage not by sectors.
well, would like if somone did it in country scale, just to share experience.
thank you again Dave,

 

[DRWeig]

Good luck, that sounds like a fun project.

Your independent variable list looks good to me, but I agreee that price will be hard to describe.

Best to you,

Goober Dave

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