As a first go, do an elastic analysis - the rockfill is the load - can get the elastic solutions in Poulos and Davis among other references. You have indicated compact sand (must be Canadian!! yeah!!) so the 'N' value is likely about 20 (10 to 30). Estimate the E value (as per Bowles correlations - or others) - then do a sensitivity analaysis. Vary the E value and see what the immediate settlements will be - use 'very low' E to 'high E'. As your waste rock will be flexible, the solutions will also be able to give you the settlement at many points and you can then estimate if the strains are too much for the geomembrane. Do any of these give worrisome settlements? If not, then, ok - if yes, what can you do to reduce the settlements? Maybe load the site for a few meters, then remove and then reload?? (likely not a good scenario). You could consider then methods of densifying further your soil to a higher state of relative density.