Global roundup of offshore wind (OFW) generation costs 1

[GregLocock]

These are what operators are demanding at auctions.

Prices are AU $ per MWh. This only one component of your bill, there are many other parasitic costs.

Victoria baseline (60% coal) 59
Victoria 2022 government estimate 94
CSIRO 2023-24 estimate 146-190
UK current round 84-no bids 139 in progress
US various projects 230 (roughly what one very troubled nuke is at as well, I haven't seen a good price for what battery storage for OFW will be)

The timeline for an OFW project is 6 years plus, and they may last 15-20 years. The UK built its first commercial reactor (Calder Hall) in 3 years and it operated for 47 years.








Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

 

[GregLocock]

NY's plans for offshore wind are in trouble

https://www.cfact.org/2024/04/28/ma...cently-canceled-but-media-spin-at-full-power/

In an earlier article, French noted “It’s clear now the state is no longer on track — derailed by growing costs, canceled projects and regulators’ refusal to provide more ratepayer-funded subsidies. Part of the problem is there are simply not enough existing, awarded and contracted projects in the pipeline to hit the 2030 target”. Politico

Victoria in Oz is in much the same trouble.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

 

[TugboatEng]

As a gearbox operator, I don't see the capacity available to maintain these wind turbine gearboxes. I have a cracked pinion on a 2000 horsepower box and I can't get a replacement for 6 months because all of the suppliers are at capacity. These types of gearboxes have life expectancies around 40k-60k hours. The gears don't wear out, the bearings start spinning in the housings which throws the alignment off. If the largest wind turbines are 3MW it's going to take thousands of units to meet goals. There are going to be thousands of gearboxes needing repair in the next 10 years. Gearbox repair is a much more specialized task than gearbox assembly. Someone needs to build a direct drive wind turbine generator.

 

[GregLocock]

Meanwhile in Australia

Victoria is considering a year-long delay to the rollout of its offshore wind industry, the centrepiece of its plans to transition away from fossil fuels, amid concerns an auction would attract few if any bids.

Shortly after announcing plans to have offshore wind generate 20 per cent of its electricity within a decade, Victoria’s state government said it would hold the first so-called contract for difference auction in 2025.

Such auctions set the minimum and maximum return a developer would receive once generating electricity. Projects typically are only viable once they have secured an agreement.

But The Australian understands the state government is considering a delay of at least a year amid concerns that it would attract few if any bids.

The reasons for this are many. Firstly, for various reasons the allocated areas are in deep water. Offshore floating wind turbines aren't a serious proposition, globally. So the tech isn't ready. Secondly the areas proposed aren't actually that great for wind power, as calms are frequent. Third the facility where they were to be built was sited in an environmentally sensitive area and the Feds said no. So even if they had a design (they don't) and they could overcome the economics (they can't) then they will have to build them elsewhere, which will remove the employment 'bonus' that so many of these unfeasible projects rely on.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

 

[hokie66]

So it's just a brain fart. Not an unusual experience in Victoria.

 

[GregLocock]

The Scottish floating offshore cash generating machine Green Volt will get around £240 per megawatt hour, call it AUD 450/MWh, ie 3 times the current UK auction price.



Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

 

[rb1957]

"which will remove the employment 'bonus' " ... don't worry, the subs will make up the shortfall !?

cast thy bread upon the waters ?

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.