Hooray! Ni prices are falling!!

[arunmrao]

It is too true to believe. In India Ni containing scrap prices have fallen suddenly by over 25%. All traders( read hoarders) have gone into a huddle. Are others too experiencing this good news.

" All that is necessary for triumph of evil is that good men do nothing".
Edmund Burke

 

[EdStainless]

Scrap prices are falling in general. Once upon a time the Ni in scrap was worth 60-80% of the LME. The recent trend with it worth 90-100% was short lived. This was based on the fear of possible supply disruption.
This drop in scrap value is largely driven by the fact that stainless mills around the world are cutting back production this summer.

Right now you see virgin Ni prices falling also. It went to $18.69 this morning. The traders and brokers will say things like 'the price is in free fall', or 'plunging', or 'crash', or 'collapse', but stop and think. Even if Ni fell 50% it would still be over four times its historical price.

My stance is that we are seeing the "fear premium" come off of Ni. People are no longer scared that they won't get metal. The market is still tight, inventories are low and demand is high. So prices will fall from the low $20s into the mid-teens.

My advice is that if you use scrap, buy now. If you sell scrap you may want to wait until the mills come back to full production in Sept. and we see what happens.

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[unclesyd]

Here is some discussion on the decline in Ni prices as well as some other metals.

Read Mondays post also, it seems to say that a little hanky-panky might have been going on.

http://www.marfas.com/newsarchive.shtml

 

[arunmrao]

Ed 90-100% of pure Ni prices was acceptable. But,here we were asked to pay for Cr, Mo,Ti, nb contents too extraa!!

I have started ordering for Ni metal as well as scrap too. Hope,this is not a dream and it lasts.

" All that is necessary for triumph of evil is that good men do nothing".
Edmund Burke

 

[EdStainless]

I can see Ni and Mo, maybe Cu and even Cr, but at what discounts to market. As I see it scrap has less utility than virgin metal and the price should reflect that.

This is a link to one of the best Ni news sites out there.

http://www.estainlesssteel.com/stainless-steel-news.shtml

Even those of us in the middle of supply hope that price fall, just not too fast. I remember the early 80's, peoples inventory valuation dropped by 75% in two days.

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[EdStainless]

I hope that you bought yesterday, Ni is up over $1/lb this morning.

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Neither should your protection

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[arunmrao]

Thanks,the news has still not reached here,ofcourse I have committed some purchases at low price 1600Rs/kilo.

" All that is necessary for triumph of evil is that good men do nothing".
Edmund Burke

 

[EdStainless]

The second session in London should be over. Now to wait and see where it closed today. It looks to be in the range of $19.50-20.00 (no, I don't have the conversion off of the top of my head).

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Rust never sleeps
Neither should your protection

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[EdStainless]

OK, I missed. It closed at $18.96 cash

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Rust never sleeps
Neither should your protection

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[EdStainless]

What did you say?

19 June, Official cash price $17.80
As of today the June average stands at $20/lb

I would like to see the average loose $1-2 each month until it is back in the 12-15 range. And then it needs to stay put for a while.

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Rust never sleeps
Neither should your protection

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[arunmrao]

Yet another reason for fall of Ni prices. Please refer to the link too for details.


"So is demand falling because of the typical slow summer season, or is it because of substitution? It would be easy to blame it all on European vacation's, but isn't that an easy cop-out? June of 2005 and 2006 were also in the "typical slower summer season", but their inventories showed declines. Could it be that the threatened substitution is having a bigger effect than many thought? We feel it is very possible, and as we have stated before, nothing motivates end-users to deviate from an established pattern, than anger. Those of us in sales, know there is no better candidate for a new customer, than one who is angry with someone else"

http://www.estainlesssteel.com/stainless-steel-news.shtml

" All that is necessary for triumph of evil is that good men do nothing".
Edmund Burke