Post-Flight Debriefing with Flight Crew

[Sparweb]

I have recently been reminded of the value of the post-flight debriefing session with flight crew and command after critical missions. Review of mission timeline and analysis of critical events is valuable for many reasons.

This can be seen in a photo that seems to have been taken during a recent F-22 post-flight debriefing, following a recent air-to-air kill (the first ever for the F-22 Raptor aircraft type):

(The photo isn't mine - it's C.W.Lemoine)

 

[rb1957]

yeah, F22 1 Balloons 0 ... F22s to face Lions in the final (and Christians take on Balloons for bronze).

Still find it hard to believe that anyone would use a balloon for gathering information. I hadn't realised that this had happened before (several times).

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

 

[Comcokid]

Google, and later a Alphabet division experimented with balloons for internet. Project Loon. The "fuel" for balloons is both helium and ballast. So these had a balloon inside the balloon. A pump moves gas in/out of the inner balloon where the helium is kept at a slightly higher density. That way the balloon changes altitude to air currents moving the right direction on command from a satellite link. An interesting approach from an engineering perspective. I know someone who interviewed with them.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loon_LLC

Unlike surveillance satellites, which might be overhead a few minutes per orbit, balloons can loiter for days. That can cover intelligence gaps. They can carry both cameras and ELINT monitoring of low-level signals. Then there is the geo-political statement such balloons make.

 

[3DDave]

In LEO a satellite gets a few minutes, to just a minute, of view on some place on the ground. While the ground path of a satellite is better known/predictable than for a balloon, that time limit means a lot of data has to be collected in a short time and that the data represents only a short time. There is a reason for putting a blimp over a racetrack to give a view of the entire race rather than using satellites to see who is in the lead.

Obviously there are drawbacks to balloons, but why not both?

The main thing that balloons are good for is getting atmospheric information and making close ground observations.

The one claim I'm interested in is whether those were solar panels or rectangular elements in a phased array radar/passive radar receiver. I see no reason for the spacing of solar panels, but phased array elements do get some space between them.

 

[Comcokid]

Link to a 2020 Chinese paper: "High-Altitude Balloon-Based Sensor System Design and Implementation"

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7180688/

 

[WKTaylor]

You know GIs... It is almost a given that the F-22A that fired the missile will have a 'Chi-Com Balloon Kill' insignia painted below the canopy on the the side of the fuselage.

I imagine that the F-22 struggled to get high enough for a 'lock-on' to attain a positive AIM-9X hit. Says a lot about the max altitude of release/tracking/kill capability for the AIM-9X.

RE the 2020 PRC paper 'High-Altitude balloon...'... simply add solar panel array(s) and a reserve helium or hydrogen tank... and the balloon could fly its mission for weeks... if not months.

Note the reported sightings have 'gaps in the visual track'. I'd bet a paycheck that was 'day-night-day-night-day-night-and-so-on. Also looked like the balloon picked-up the perfect Jetstream flow... dipping far south over CONUS... and relatively slow.

In the early 1960s high altitude balloons were sent aloft over So Cal by NASA and the USAF.... resulting in 'UFO calls'... I just thought they were fascinating. Some were manned testing 'spacesuits' and survivability... others electronics and atmospheric phenomena.

Regards, Wil Taylor
o Trust - But Verify!
o For those who believe, no proof is required; for those who cannot believe, no proof is possible. [variation, Stuart Chase]
o Unfortunately, in science what You 'believe' is irrelevant. ["Orion", HBA forum]
o Only fools and charlatans know everything and understand everything." -Anton Chekhov

 

[Sparweb]

Something tells me there's more going on with this balloon than China will admit. No - I don't mean I think it's nefarious... sure it's conceivable... plenty of people believe that. But I think there's also a reasonable possibility that some university in China set out to do some atmospheric research, launched the balloon, but the system to control the balloon's descent failed, and it just kept on going. If that's true, then there's a bunch of post-docs busting their guts laughing for a week about this. On the part of the PRC government, maybe it's a case of "well let's see what the Americans do - could be interesting". And boy did the Americans deliver: 5th gen fighter versus bag of helium.

I'm venturing this hypothesis before the US military releases any findings about the material they recover from the debris. If the equipment they recover turns out to be benign, then there's a chance my little theory could be true.

 

[moon161]

Maybe some chinese flat-earthers just had to see the curve of the earth for themselves.

 

[rb1957]

I suspect the number of chinese flat earthers is vanishing small ... that's an advantage of the chinese style of governing

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

 

[WKTaylor]

my 2-cents... Just speculating...

IF this were truly a university/industry experiment then it would be normal for the 'sending nation' to share the technical information about, the location and projected flight path, etc... of the 'awshit' experiment gone awry. NOPE, NOT the Chi-Coms.

Up until a couple of years ago, Russia and the USA had the Open Skies Treaty as part of the nuclear/CBR disarmament treaty. Designated specially equipped aircraft [OS-135B]... multispectral cameras, radiation sensing equipment, chemical sniffing equipment, radar/LIDAR, etc... from each country were allowed 'mostly' unfettered access over/across any/all areas of the country [with one national observer on board for diplomacy reasons]. US was pretty open about this... Russia, not so much. That agreement finally fell apart ~3-years ago when Russia refused to extend the agreement. Duhhh. Now the only available surveillance is from space.

The 'low-altitude' surveillance... from TR-2 [U-2], OS/RC/EC-135s, RB-57s a few UAS, etc... has been used to refine satellite surveillance data over the decades boosting 'clarity' and refining the satellite data... and even refining the sensors on newer generation recon satellites themselves.

I am pretty sure Chi-Coms don't have any known manned/unmanned very high altitude research aircraft [like the TR-2 or UAS]... so high altitude balloons with compact sensors... and solar-cell power.... running in the atmospheric flow provide a unique low-cost/low-risk/low-threat option for over-country surveillance. This offers the opportunity for refining recon over foreign territory. I presume, due to geography, and atmospherics... it would be difficult to impossible for a balloon to track over higher northern latitudes without being released from a research ship close to/above the arctic circle... which would be very awkward to keep secret.

BTW... at close to 60,000-Ft altitude, flying gets pretty sketchy, and margins are 'thin'. 'Maneuvering for the 'shot'... safely... likely took lots of planning and simulation and maintenance prep for the aircraft involved... and physiological preparation by the crew. I doubt if the F-22 has been so high since flight-testing. Looks like a 'lead and wingman' were dispatched Eglin AFB or Tyndall AFB F-22A weapons'-test squadron to do the deed.

Regards, Wil Taylor
o Trust - But Verify!
o For those who believe, no proof is required; for those who cannot believe, no proof is possible. [variation, Stuart Chase]
o Unfortunately, in science what You 'believe' is irrelevant. ["Orion", HBA forum]
o Only fools and charlatans know everything and understand everything." -Anton Chekhov

 

[rb1957]

do you mean that China doesn't have spy satellites in geo-stationary orbit, sitting above the US, monitoring ... ??

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

 

[WKTaylor]

Rb... was Your question to me... or someone else? My 2-cents.

Geostationary recon satellites at 22,222(ish)-mi over the equator... or oscillating above/below the equator for a better observation of the far northern and southern latitudes of the Americas???

Hopefully Space COM folks know. Keeping them 'secret' [electronically quite] would be a challenge since they would have to transmit to ships at sea... or slant-wise over the horizon.

Regards, Wil Taylor
o Trust - But Verify!
o For those who believe, no proof is required; for those who cannot believe, no proof is possible. [variation, Stuart Chase]
o Unfortunately, in science what You 'believe' is irrelevant. ["Orion", HBA forum]
o Only fools and charlatans know everything and understand everything." -Anton Chekhov

 

[IRstuff]

do you mean that China doesn't have spy satellites in geo-stationary orbit, sitting above the US, monitoring ... ??

It's actually pretty crowded in the geo-synch orbit, due to mostly communications satellites, but with scattered surveillance satellites amongst them. However, the resolution/coverage is compromised; the US spent billions in the 80s building humongous focal plane arrays to get sufficient coverage from geo.

But, there's never enough resolution; even from low-Earth orbit (LEO), which improves ground resolution by a factor of 30x, that's sometimes still not enough; at 20 km, which is what the Chinese balloon should have been flying at, that's an additional factor of 60 improvement over LEO. Alternately, a balloon could carry an off-the-shelf SLR camera with a 1600-mm EFL telephoto lens and get 0.7-inch ground resolution at 20-km altitude. However, a 4k sensor with that resolution would only cover 77-m of ground, so if the balloon is off course, it's not going to see much at all.

A gimbaled sensor could improve the situation, but a course error of more than 20 km would make that moot, and it's likely the balloon was much farther off course than even that, so oops, a few million dollars gone to waste.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert!

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[Sparweb]

How far has anyone been able to track the balloon backward?

 

[WKTaylor]

SW...

Red' posted what looks like a 'backward-predictive-track' to an approximate launch area in China. She did not mention where the chart came from.

I assume that this 'track' accounted for time-to-climb, weather/winds-aloft, day/night variances, etc. I suspect that at +60,000-Ft any winter WX effects [turbulence, icing, sprites, etc] would be minimal... so winds-aloft would be the major player ~24-hrs after launch. I wonder if corona/static build up is a significant factor in balloons... with little/no air friction around the vehicle?

CCP Spy Ballooon

https://www.eng-tips.com/viewthread.cfm?qid=502111

Title of that thread has me puzzled... CCP =?= PRC?? I'm pretty sure if I've never heard CCP before... much-less, as related to the PRC. I suppose I should ask...

Regards, Wil Taylor
o Trust - But Verify!
o For those who believe, no proof is required; for those who cannot believe, no proof is possible. [variation, Stuart Chase]
o Unfortunately, in science what You 'believe' is irrelevant. ["Orion", HBA forum]
o Only fools and charlatans know everything and understand everything." -Anton Chekhov

 

[rb1957]

Chinee Communist Party ?

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

 

[3DDave]

I think so - People's Republic of China - PRC; the government running it, Chinese Communist Party - CCP, but officially the Communist Party of China (CPC)

 

[moon161]

I suspect the number of chinese flat earthers is vanishing small ... that's an advantage of the chinese style of governing

Yes the fraction may be very low, but the sample is quite large.

 

[Sparweb]

Thanks.
I'm not subscribed to the ET pub any more.

traced that plot posted by Redsnake back to a Twitter message:

https://twitter.com/wildweatherdan/status/1621293636943052801

They used this model to generate the plot:

https://www.ready.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT_traj.php

I tried using that model to see if it would be easy to replicate the result. It is not easy. This is the type of code that "does exactly what you ask it to" even when your inputs are wrong or nonsense. To get valid results, you need to know exactly how to use this software, set up models, and troubleshoot errors. So the plot below "could be" correct, but we have no idea what was input into the model to get this track.

 

[WKTaylor]

SW... any idea what hPa means?

My 'best guess is...

height Pressure altitude perhaps??

Regards, Wil Taylor
o Trust - But Verify!
o For those who believe, no proof is required; for those who cannot believe, no proof is possible. [variation, Stuart Chase]
o Unfortunately, in science what You 'believe' is irrelevant. ["Orion", HBA forum]
o Only fools and charlatans know everything and understand everything." -Anton Chekhov