Turnaround refinery project management

[0707]

"In the 1970s and 1980s, a typical refinery maintenance outage lasted anywhere from 30–45 days and occurred every two or three years. Today, many refineries can run twice as long before they need to shut down for maintenance and the typical outage lasts about half the time. One of the most important processes in a refinery is the fluid catalytic cracking process. This process, which is used in refineries to break down heavy oils into lighter products, allows owners to meet the demand for higher-quality, higher-octane products.
Because of the vital role of this process, refineries that have Fluid Catalytic Cracking Units (FCCU’s) generally choose to revamp or upgrade these units during a regularly scheduled maintenance shutdown.
FCCU maintenance projects are driven by operational needs, such as the need to increase the capacity of the FCCU, handle a change in the stream fed into the FCCU, or improve reliability and extend the life cycle of the FCCU. These projects can range from relatively minor repair projects to major revamps that result in, essentially, the installation of a brand new unit."

Fluid Catalytic Cracking
"In-site" Repairing

Advantages:
They are “eventually” less onerous.
We will need minor transport logistics and lighter cranes.

Disadvantages:
We will have great manpower concentration in the work specialties conflicts in confined spaces making it difficult to manage simultaneous works.
We will have bigger outage duration.
We will have lesser react capacity to hypothetical unexpected works.
We will have a less efficient safety management.

Fluid Catalytic Cracking Repairing
Through Kits spare parts

Advantages:
We will have lesser manpower concentration "in site".
We will have lesser outage duration.
We will have Inexistence of unexpected works
We will have a more efficient safety management

Disadvantages
“Eventually” we will have bigger shutdown costs.
We will need bigger transport logistic with heavier cranes.

I invite the forum to comment.

Luis Marques

 

[GregLamberson]

Luis

I think one way to approach this is to look at each scenario independently. Each will need a schedule with resources. The cost can then be estimated. Additionally each scenario should have a risk assessment done and a sensitivity on the schedule. A final, P10, P50, and P90 cost should be developed.

I think when you look at them side by side, you will see which is the most advantageous.

Greg Lamberson
Consultant - Upstream Energy
Website:

http://www.oil-gas-consulting.com

 

[Lhenrique]

Luis

Remember that you have to take out the old one part that wasn't fastened like a kit to install a brand new kit spare parts, it's gonna take the same time that conventional repair. The second kit change, maybe years ahead, is that you'll see the benefits of it, 'cause I suppose engineers has designed a fast and easy way to connect it.

Luiz Souza
Brazil

 

[0707]

Greg

Excuse me my ignorance but what do you mean by P10, P50 or P90 cost?

I am from refinery inspection not from maintenance management.

Regards

Luis

 

[0707]

L Henrique & Greg

I don’t no if you are familiar with FCC refinery turnaround works, so, maybe this question is confusing you. Of course during a turnaround everything is done in the field.

The difference between “in site” & “Through Kits spare parts” is as follows:

On site repairing is a repair where the parts have to be rebuilt inside the equipment in confined spaces with lots of people doing several specialties such as cleaning, welding, applying refractory, grinding, hammering, dismantling and so on. If it happens any unexpected repair the planning has to be updated the critical path changes and the outage schedule will be delayed.

The repair through kits spare parts is more accurate, unexpected repairs will be minimized, specialties management will be optimised and with a good planning the outage schedule will be achieved.

This is my opinion based on some life experiences of several turnarounds

Cheers

Luis

 

[Lhenrique]

Luiz,

As my homonym above I'm involved with refinery maintenance as well and has not to do with management. But I'm curious. How is “Through Kits spare parts” maintenance? I means has anyone doing it already? Where? Have you followed up the jobs?

Sorry for so many questions but as a mechanicall engineer that works on-site, I just want help with my little experience.

Luiz
Brazil

 

[zeusfaber]

P10, P50 and P90 are cost (in this case) estimates that assume different different levels of risk turning bad. Each is more pessimistic than the last.

You have 10% confidence that the project will come in at less than your P10 estimate (only 10% of similar projects will be this good). This is a really optimistic estimate.

You have 50% confidence that the project will come in at less than your P50 estimate (only 50% of similar projects will be this good). This is a more realistic estimate.

You have 90% confidence that the project will come in at less than your P90 estimate (only 90% of similar projects will be this good). This is the estimate you'd probably like to have in your formal objectives.

A.

 

[GregLamberson]

Luis

My apologies, as a guy once told me, we use too many TLA's in our business. What's a TLA? Three Letter Acronym.

zeusfaber nailed it perfectly.

The P numbers only refer to the possibility of achieving the estimate - 10% chance, 50% chance or 90 percent chance.

Greg Lamberson
Consultant - Upstream Energy
Website:

http://www.oil-gas-consulting.com

 

[BernardErtl]

The difference between “in site” & “Through Kits spare parts” is as follows:

On site repairing is a repair where the parts have to be rebuilt inside the equipment in confined spaces with lots of people doing several specialties such as cleaning, welding, applying refractory, grinding, hammering, dismantling and so on. If it happens any unexpected repair the planning has to be updated the critical path changes and the outage schedule will be delayed.

The repair through kits spare parts is more accurate, unexpected repairs will be minimized, specialties management will be optimised and with a good planning the outage schedule will be achieved.

Could you elaborate a bit more on what you mean by "repairing through kits spare parts"? What kind of work are you referring to versus on-site repair?

For an FCC unit, we generally see the critical path running through the Reactor and/or Regenerator repairs. As far as I am aware, there are no kits available for this work scope.

Bernard Ertl
InterPlan Systems
- eTaskMaker Project Planning Software
- ATC Professional Turnaround Management Software