Big step in nuclear fusion research 5

[JoshPlumSE]

I want to say that someone commented on this in another thread. But, I can't find it right now, so I thought I'd post it here in a new thread.

Essentially, this latest experiment generated more power than the power that went into creating it. That's a pretty big step. And, correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe fusion is generally believed to be "cleaner" than current fission reactors. At least in terms of what sort of waste is created from the reaction.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2014.14710

 

[rb1957]

Fusion is IMHO the only long term energy source. Yes, the radiation waste is very low level, and very short lived, and plants "shouldn't" explode.

This is a fairly old article (2014) so I don't think it is the "break-through" it proports to be. But all avenues are worth pursuing (until you hit a brick wall, that can't be surmounted by money and effort).

The problem is that it has been 30 years in the future for the last 30 years ... typical science ...
1) solve one problem, find two more or
2) the effort required to double the current result is a magnitude higher than thought !

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

I hope they never solve it.

Availability of unlimited cheap energy would be an unmitigated disaster.

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

[SwinnyGG]

I'd very much like to hear the logic behind this statement:

Availability of unlimited cheap energy would be an unmitigated disaster.

 

[JoshPlumSE]

Oh, I didn't mean to link to a 2014 article. I believe there was recently a newer article and newer experiment. I just linked to the one that I thought was least likely to have a "paywall".

Below is the NYT article that I first read. Though they may have a paywall.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/17/science/lasers-fusion-power-watts-earth.html

 

[rb1957]

@im ... I hope I don't live in your world.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

[JoshPlumSE]

This one might be better. Both this and the one above address the Aug 8th, 2021 experiment. Not the older 2014 one.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/story/2021-09-26/nuclear-fusion-experiment

 

[rb1957]

there is lots of research going on, on a shoestring budget. Many avenues look hopeful (promising is too optimistic).

ITER is the "big science" approach, many smaller alternative approaches.

One of the things I've read is to be careful about very optimistic results. Often they report energy output compared to fuel energy input, without including the other energy inputs required to get the reaction going (and continuing).

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

[JoshPlumSE]

Optimistic results (in this field) really mean that it's a leap forward from where they've been in the past. But, it's still a while before you can turn it into something commercially feasible compared to fission reactors, gas turbines or even solar and wind.

 

[rb1957]

we're IMHO decades from a commercial reactor. But each new experiment result, which improves on the previous, is overhyped ... as the small ventures need VC to work with, and so "much ado about nothing". We're making progress but it won't be easy.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

@im ... I hope I don't live in your world.

Unfortunately you are stuck with me in this one. And there is no Planet B.

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

I'd very much like to hear the logic behind this statement:

It is logical to the extent that humans are logical, which is to say, not very. Not everything that is true is logical or even rational.

(The person who coined 'Homo Sapiens' was being sarcastic.)

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

[JoshPlumSE]

IM is just trolling this thread. Not sure why.

 

JP is simply mistaken, not sure why.
My first comment was deadly serious.

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

[JoshPlumSE]

My first comment was deadly serious.

I never said that you weren't a sincere troll.

I don't mean to belabor this point, but your original comment on this thread seem somewhat non-sequitur. Maybe intended more to "stir the pot" and get people riled up than to participate in any kind of genuine dialog.... Hence the reason why I said you were trolling.

 

[rb1957]

can we get back to discussing fusion power ?

The "promise/curse" of fusion (that of cheap or endless power) is an awful long way in the future (IMHO).

First we need a commercial concept and working plant, maybe this century.

Then the builders of these early plants will need to recover their costs, maybe next century ?

Eventually we'll have cheap power.

And, yes, that'll bring some unintended side effects (mining rare earth metals for batteries, etc)
Maybe by then we'll have off-world options (asteroid mining, ET settlements ?).

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

Since you insist, here's the logical reason:
The problem with cheap unlimited energy is that we would use it.
(Honestly, the answer is so stone cold obvious that it embarrasses me to spell it out, and I am not easily embarrassed.)

That is based on 2.5 centuries of human OpEx, with zero counterexamples, and without even considering the relentless impetus to weaponize any and all technologies.

The mythological clues can be found with Prometheus and Icarus. You might have heard of those guys.

The fundamental issue hobbling most of these threads is the unchallenged conviction that there are technological solutions to problems created by the use of technology. I am merely pointing out that this is magical thinking. Don't think of unintended consequences as unfortunate 'accidents'.

For purposes of continuing education (because that college degree was really only about job training), I urge every engineer to start thinking more broadly about entropy. It's not just for steam! Do a little of your own research into how it impacts virtually every sphere of human activity. The information is out there, it just isn't found on (anti)social media or for sale on amazon.

Then decide if administering more poison should remain the only cure for poisoning.


"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

[rb1957]

but that goes for everything we've ever done, as you say.

All inventions have a "baby" element and a "bath water" component, and we must be careful to distinguish between the too.

All, or pretty much all, inventions have some component that benefits mankind, and some component that we'll twist into a problem.

Cheap energy will be a tremendous boon for mankind, but that in itself is a tremendous potential problem (in that you'd expect to see a large population growth, up to some other limit of the environment). We can't not develop fusion power because of this. If "we" don't, then "someone else" will and that'll be a different problem. What we can do is be aware of the potential problems and try and prepare for them. But there will always be unintended consequences.

IMHO, energy (and CO2) are side issues ... the primary existential threat to mankind is social unrest and how we manage that will determine the future.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

rb1957,

So basically, 'press on regardless'?

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

[rb1957]

no, "press on regardfully" ... what choice is there ? stop now (rhetorical), and call an end to the experiment ??

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?