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(can of worms alert) Globe hasn't warmed in the last 16 years 76

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not saying GT is not a good school, but unfortunately, the US News ranking does very little to rank the schools on the basis of research or technical competency, it does however include analysis of

Undergraduate academic reputation (22.5 percent for National Universities and National Liberal Arts Colleges; 25 percent for Regional Universities and Regional Colleges):

Retention (20 percent for the National Universities and National Liberal Arts Colleges and 25 percent for Regional Universities and Regional Colleges):

Faculty resources (20 percent):
Faculty salary (35 percent) is the average faculty pay, plus benefits, during the 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 academic years, adjusted for regional differences in the cost of living using indexes from the consulting firm Runzheimer International. We also weigh the proportion of professors with the highest degree in their fields (15 percent), the student-faculty ratio (5 percent), and the proportion of faculty who are full time (5 percent).

Student selectivity (15 percent):
Financial resources (10 percent):
Graduation rate performance (7.5 percent;
Alumni giving rate (5 percent):
 
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David: no, your statement about positive feedback does not disprove the greenhouse effect (obviously the GAIN matters a great deal David!) Rather, it makes it clear that others should take your pronouncements on the subject with an appropriate measure of salt, as this statement (and others you've made) betrays significant ignorance with respect to the topic. No offence is intended to you by saying this: there is quite a bit of subject matter unrelated to this topic in which your opinion is very well informed and hence very valuable to me.

As to the accuracy of the climactic models used to predict the effect of CO2 emissions: all that matters to me is that the people who are the most in the know in relation to the planet's energy balance are seriously concerned about the risk posed by doubling the CO2 concentration, much less increasing it at the rate that we continue to do. But even if you, like I, are suspicious that such a system is too complex to model in anything but the coarsest terms, that is no argument to merely ACCEPT the risk that our CO2 emissions represent as inevitable or to dismiss the effects as insignificant. It is similarly not a reasonable argument to say that because any measures we take to reduce CO2 emissions will be partial, they are necessarily automatic failures and hence not worth attempting. You can argue that the cost is not proportional to the potential harm, but then again you need to estimate the harm, and the real cost of the mitigating measures, to make that argument. My retort to that is simple: if we later discover that CO2 has no negative effects worth worrying about, we can start burning fossil carbon again with gusto. Not so easy to put the CO2 back into the ground after the fact, though- there's a minor matter of entropy to contend with.

You can similarly argue that developing the international concensus to act in a meaningful way to mitigate CO2 emissions is too difficult, and I'd agree with you. The willingness of so many engineers on this forum to throw out the informed scientific consensus on this subject based on rather amateur theorizing and the odd Google search or article from a dodgy UK news outlet is ample evidence to me that we're screwed. I sincerely wish it were not so.
 
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The comment from above "Clouds also block the sun, which change the albedo", which leads me to ask, Are there other ways to change the albedo?

Several ways possible, add dust to the air, increase or decrease the amount of vegestation, or as simple as paint to increase reflectivity.

Why is this given less importance than increases taxes?
 
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On Georgia Tech...

Tech gets slayed in the "overall" US News rankings because USNWR gives bonus points to schools like Stanford that are impossible to fail out of as long as you have enough money. GT leads the nation in diploma %ROI: (sort by column 6)

#3 Civil Engineering program in the country:

#1 IE:

#4 Aerospace:

#5 EE:

#6 Comp E:

#6 ME:

#2 Biomed:

#10 Chem EL

#6 EnvE:

etc. etc.

So I guess it depends on how you define "prestigious." In your field, rb1957, it is more prestigious than everywhere except Stanford, Cal Tech, and MIT. In my field, we beat all three of them. While the ranking of the EAS program isn't as high as the engineering programs, it should be clear that the head of the program isn't a quack. You don't have to go out on a limb to say the models are "flawed" when models make very specific predictions and those predictions fail to come true, given that the point of a model is to predict things.



Hydrology, Drainage Analysis, Flood Studies, and Complex Stormwater Litigation for Atlanta and the South East -
 
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Moltenmetal,
You and I will never agree on this subject. You seem to revere people that I find to be self-serving manipulators of data.

Your basic statement that:
moltenmetal said:
if we later discover that CO2 has no negative effects worth worrying about, we can start burning fossil carbon again with gusto. Not so easy to put the CO2 back into the ground after the fact, though- there's a minor matter of entropy to contend with
Click to expand...

Sounds to me much like the hypothetical argument that "testicular cancer occurs in a significant portion of the population, so castration must be mandatory for all men past 40 years old". If someone where to propose that STUPID idea, we would not run blindly off of that cliff to implement it; we would stone them. Kyoto and subsequent "carbon taxes" and "cap and trade" scheme are on track to decapitate economies as "preventive medicine".

David Simpson, PE
MuleShoe Engineering

"Belief" is the acceptance of an hypotheses in the absence of data.
"Prejudice" is having an opinion not supported by the preponderance of the data.
"Knowledge" is only found through the accumulation and analysis of data.
 
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Cranky - the biggest way to change the albedo of the earth is to spread a few billion humans across it and tell them to chop down forests, proliferate agriculture, and build cities. And that effect correlates with human expansion as good or better than CO2 emissions does. Something to think about, anyway. And albedo effects, combined with the effects of direct heat, can actually be seen, instead of merely theorized upon. Google "urban heat island" for more information.

The willingness of so many engineers on this forum to throw out the informed scientific consensus on this subject based on rather amateur theorizing and the odd Google search or article from a dodgy UK news outlet is ample evidence to me that we're screwed.
Click to expand...

I'm willing to question it based on the authority of the respected academics quoted in the article, and on the data the article presents. The funny thing about your "informed scientific consensus" is they all get paid for saying the same thing, and the more they say it, the more they get paid. And the ultimate benefactor of their work is a very rich bank (Goldman Sachs) that has positioned itself to make billions of dollars in a faked up "carbon credit" market as soon as they can donate enough money to senators to pass cap/trade as a policy, despite no model ever showing that cap/trade will have any effect on the environment, and the models we do have being unable to predict warming trends.

Something very important we learn in water policy, is you never propose a policy without some agreed upon understanding (model) of what result that policy is going to have. There is no such thing, AFAIK, for carbon cap/trade. Nobody knows if it'll do squat, yet that link is conveniently ignored in the public discussion.

Hydrology, Drainage Analysis, Flood Studies, and Complex Stormwater Litigation for Atlanta and the South East -
 
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I'm amused by the fact that so far in this thread global warming has been accused of being both creeping socialism and also a plot to increase corporate profit by Goldman Sachs.
 
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If increases in `greenhouse gas` concentrations ALWAYS results in positive feedback (more heat means more water vapor means more heat trapped...), then the FIRST (and every one thereafter) natural bump in such gases should have created a runaway temperature effect, which does not seem to be the case.

Conversely, albedo-affecting events, like Krakatoa, that reflect away heat should have created a runaway ice age, which does not seem to be the case.

The answer is the obvious: It is a very complex set of complex relationships that are subject to a bewildering array of unknown.

We are basing REAL WORLD reactions on a sets of data that are defended like a religion. You just gotta have faith. Whenever someone challenges the data, or conclusions, or provide alternative data or conclusions, they are labeled HERETIC or `oil company stooge` and thrown under an eco-friendly bus.
 
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I`m going to have to go with the equally valid conclusions of the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster (FSM):
{It is an actual (tongue-in-cheek) theory, google for it...}

Global warming has been caused by a worldwide shortage of Pirates.
 
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Brad179,
I don't see the disconnect. I look to the old USSR where there was socialism for the masses and a hell of a good lifestyle for the commissars. In this case the masses get significantly poorer while a very small minority harvest trillions (not billions) of dollars for taking a "small" percentage off of every cap and trade transaction (and there will be a LOT of transactions, many of which will have VERY large bottom lines.

David Simpson, PE
MuleShoe Engineering

"Belief" is the acceptance of an hypotheses in the absence of data.
"Prejudice" is having an opinion not supported by the preponderance of the data.
"Knowledge" is only found through the accumulation and analysis of data.
 
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Well the lack of cooling over the last few years may correlate with activity off Somalia.

Given the developments in that country over the last year one might think that piracy will decrease a bit over the next few years.

Keep watching your thermometers.

Posting guidelines faq731-376 (probably not aimed specifically at you)
What is Engineering anyway: faq1088-1484​
 
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You don't see the disconnect between global warming being creeping socialism and global warming being part of a plot by a huge corporation to increase profits?


I'm still amused.
 
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No, because I see practical socialism as a plot by a small number to enslave the masses for their own good. If that small group is the commissars then you have the "USSR" protecting the peasants from capitalism. If it is Goldman Sacs it is "Cap and Trade" protecting the world from AGW. No diff.

David Simpson, PE
MuleShoe Engineering

"Belief" is the acceptance of an hypotheses in the absence of data.
"Prejudice" is having an opinion not supported by the preponderance of the data.
"Knowledge" is only found through the accumulation and analysis of data.
 
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I think anyone who sees the trends in Washington as "socialism" is forgetting the definition of the term. Socialism is the government owning the means of production. What we are moving rapidly towards, is the means of production (or rather of money itself) owning the government. Different beast with similar effects, once they start using government influence to sell to the government (defense industry) or worse, passing laws to force us to buy their flawed products (light bulbs, Robamacare). It's not government obfuscation of the free market as in socialism, it's corporate obfuscation of the free market. A socialist would not, for instance, appoint the ex VP of Montsanto to head the FDA.

But that's really got very little to do with the topic.

Hydrology, Drainage Analysis, Flood Studies, and Complex Stormwater Litigation for Atlanta and the South East -
 
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if you ask me, GW is being caused by too many pirates ... only pirates wearing Really good suits, travelling to Really exotic places, and preaching "give us your money and we'll save you (from yourselves)" ... dogbert couldn't've come up with a better scam.

i've posed the question before, how much personal insurance do you have ? how much medical insurance ? how much are you willing to pay (and not to pay) for risks that will directly impact you ? now someone comes along selling insurance against becoming a UFO hostage/abductee, how much would they get ? or non-traditional medical operatives (could be witch doctors) ? i guess we'd feel a little more comfortable if we could see carbon taxes contributing to something meanful about the problem, but i don't see that feedback.
 
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That's sort of funny, because some people see the goverment as an insurance company for all of those things (My guess would be a non-profit insurance company). The problem I have is the sales tactics of there sales force.

Simular to GW stuff. I don't mind being greener, but ask me to pay more because you have closed down all the alternitives is not a great sales moto. Yes I have some of those free light bulbs, but they don't fit several on the fixtures in my home.

Just like the suggestion that I should keep my tires aired up. I don't check them between oil changes, because it costs money to add a few pounds of air to my tires. Someone do the economic analysis as the the proper interval to air up my tires consitering the cost to air up my tires is $1.25, and I can air them up for free every oil change.

In the end many people will be greener, but the cost to become green today is beyond many peoples means.
 
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Cranky,

A simple google search leads you to your answers, see the article from the DOE
Above you said that turning the thermostat down a couple of degrees caused an outbreak of colds in your home (which someone else pointed out has been shown to not be related), now you say that $1.25 is a deal breaker...

Also, let me (try to) get this straight, some of you feel that political action to attempt to lessen or prevent CAGW is a socialist/plutocracy/<insert some extreme political/economic ideology> conspiracy that will strip you of your freedom and bankrupt the masses, based on what exactly? Yet you dismiss papers which support the theory of CAGW (based on imperical and model demonstrated data) as "dooms day" alarmists? I'm with Brad, the irony is amusing.

Now, I like the discussion on the science itself (from both sides) but when we start saying that a carbon tax or cap-and-trade will lead to some dystopic society, I get a little short. Yes, there are costs associated with trying to lessen our CO2 emmissions but be reasonable people.
 
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place tongue in cheek...

Villagers: (enter yelling) A witch! A witch! We've found a witch! Burn her! Burn her!

(After Sir Bedimere gets the crowd to admit that they dressed her up as a witch, their only basis for accusing her is that one of them claims that she turned him into a newt. But because he "got better", they need some way of determining her guilt).

Bedimere: there are ways of telling if she's a witch. What do you do with witches?

Villagers: Burn them!

Bedimere: And what do you burn, apart from witches?

Villagers: Wood?

Bedimere: Right! So why do witches burn?

Villagers: Because they're made of wood?

Bedimere: Right! . Now, what else do you do with wood?

Villagers: Build bridges with it!

Bedimere: But do we not also build bridges from stone; does wood float in water?

Villagers: Yes.

Bedimere: And what else floats in water?

King Arthur: (after more confused suggestions from the villagers) A duck!

Bedimere: Right! So, if she weighs the same as a duck, she'd float in water, and she must be made of wood, so.

Villagers: A witch! Burn her!

(They weigh the woman on a large scale with a duck in the other balancing basket, but inexplicably the scales do not tilt one way or the other. As the villagers drag the woman away, the witch looks at the camera and says with resignation "it was a fair court".)

Bedimere: (to King Arthur) Who are you who are so wise in the ways of science?




This scene from the Monty Python film describes, in a general way, some of the confusions and irrationalities which can arise when scientific logic interacts with the law. The faultiness of the logic employed is obvious, but the scientifically educated judge/lawyer sways the crowd with a logical (sounding) theory. Further convinced by the appearance and opinions of a scientific expert (King Arthur) they proceed to reach the same conclusion that they were previously inclined to make. The defendant is guilty.
 
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If people are all worried about socialism/capitalist plots to take our money, perhaps a first step would be to stop subsidizing all fossil fuels immediately? And maybe the folks here would prefer the carbon fee and dividend idea that puts money directly back into your pockets rather than going to the government?
 
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