Climate change considered in flood modelling 5

[GreenySuz]

I need to incorporate climate change into my peak flow calculations when modelling a river to determine the height of a bridge. Are there any practical and exact guidelines as to how it is normally done? Additionally the site is in Africa (data is limited), some specialists increase the freeboard by 0.5 meters but I have not find a specific guideline method to do this.

 

[dik]

Naofumi... that's likely one of the better approaches. It will remove a lot of the guesswork, but still may be off.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

 

[dik]

This says a bunch. I suspect we will be over the 2C change...

There is only a small amount of the area that is within the 10% range.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

 

[beej67]

Some of the best evaluations of climate scenarios come out of Judith Curry's website in my opinion. This article states that RCP8.5 is not very likely at all, and RCP2.6 may be the best thing to use in terms of future predictions if you were setting overall climate policy:

https://judithcurry.com/2019/01/28/reassessing-the-rcps/

That said, if all you're doing is building a bridge, and the relative cost difference between building the bridge to an expectation of RCP8.5 is minimal as compared to building it to RCP2.6, then designing it around an expectation of RCP8.5 may be the smarter engineering choice.

Hydrology, Drainage Analysis, Flood Studies, and Complex Stormwater Litigation for Atlanta and the South East -

http://www.campbellcivil.com