Deindustrialisation in United States 12

[GeoSmith]

Deindustrialisation---the shrinkage of industrial jobs

I would like to open a discussion because I read an article today. It is said that America has a huge trade deficit not because it is not exporting enough, but because American consumers are spending too much.

Developed economies' comparative advantage is in knowledge-intensive activities, because thet have so much skilled labour. In developed economues today, telecoms, software, banking and so on can create more wealth than making jeans or trainers in "world factory".

It is also said that under proper training, lay-off people can find a high tech job easily. All developed country, like Japan, German and UK, all manufacturing jobs are declining.

 

[Slugger926]

Wes - You are going to like the housing prices in Texas when you get there. Don't be surprised that you can have a new house built in the suburbs cheaper than you can buy an existing house you can move into today.

 

[wes616]

epoissess - If you link to the website, you will find data going back to 1980.

Newfella - I do. Los Angeles. But not for long. Saturday at 5 am, I am getting in my car and driving to Texas and not comming back (for a while atleast)

Slugger - My wife and I are looking at (hobby) farm properties out in a suburb of Dallas called Waxahache. 50 acres and a farmhouse for 200K. Plus we are looking for a "fixerupper" casue she's an architect and wants something in HER MIND, that we'd never find anywhere... but want something old (exterior) like from pre 1940.

Wes C.
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Make a dent in the Universe... do something great...

 

[2dye4]

The widely circulated theory about the benefits of creative
destruction in the job market goes something like this.
When good paying manufacturing jobs go away people are
made available for new and supposedly more advanced work.
Most people not involved in manufacturing get the benefit
of cheaper goods. But how can people find jobs that pay
as well as the manufacturing ones??
High pay comes with either undesirable work or highly
skilled work. We as engineers try to fit in the highly
skilled work catagory. Some engineering disciplines are
not very affected by outsourcing due to the scale of what
can be transported by ship.
The issue comes down to the complexity of the replacement
jobs that are created. Those with brain want to find
challenging work not necesarilly for self satisfaction but
because the probability of standing out above the rest
and therefore higher salary depend on complex difficult
work. What kind of jobs can be created that will offer
opportunity for this complexity that are not related to
manufacturing or designing a product ??
It will result in equilization of the skilled and
unskilled worker classes in the developed world.

 

[davefitz]

Back to the original post.

In terms of personal standards of living, it doesn't matter if the US completely de-industrializes or not, provided the country participates in a global economy and is not disadvantaged in international trade due to politcal or military issues. The fact that someone, somewhere, will manufacture the product and trade it for whatever goods or services the US has to offer is sufficient ( in times of peace) to keep the whole pyramid scheme going indefinetly.

Just like, the retired senior citizens of Ormond Beach, Florida don't expect to have a loss in standard of living because Ormond Beach has zero industrial capacity and most residents are retired ( as the USA is to be in 2020 ); what it doesn't manufacture for its residents, it buys from other cities, and exchanges some other service or goods in return.

The scheme falls to pieces, of course, if the trade routes falter due to war , or a shock occurs, such as a disruption of the oil supply needed to transport the goods from a manufacturing State to a sit-on-your butt-and consume State.

 

[GeoSmith]

My question is that if the US completely de-industrializes, all the jobs here will be out-sourced to other developing countries. The people who lose their jobs can find different fields of job here? All engineering jobs in US will soon disappear? Or many people will work at service sectors?

 

[RDK]

Most of the de-industrialized retirees in Florida are either living on the interest or investment income or do not expect that the savings will last forever; after all the savings only have to last their lifetime.

However the US expects to keep on going for many years; past the lifetime of any individual now alive, let alone now retired. The country is not living within the investment income that it generates. High government deficits, massive trade deficits and massive borrowing n a personal and corporate level will eventually erode the US capabilities to sustain its lifestyle, that is as long as the de-industrialization trend continues to occur or lifestyles continue to be much higher than world average.

Since I believe that world wide freer trade is now a fact of life, I do not see there being many other options other than to either re-industrialize or accept lower standards of living.

Factor into the equation that the US needs some domestic industrial capacity for military and security purposes, the present trend must change




Rick Kitson MBA P.Eng

Construction Project Management
From conception to completion

http://www.kitsonengineering.com