EV roadblock - lithium 14

[GregLocock]

During one of those conversations with a guy named Phil Gross, we talked about the approximately 15 million new cars sold in the US each year.
I already knew that 15 million number, so I wasn’t surprised when Phil brought it up. I was surprised, however, when Phil told me that there simply isn’t enough lithium on Earth to keep producing cars at anything like that rate and that North American carmakers would soon be facing, “an existential threat” (his words) as they transition to EVs.

Phil should know. He’s the CEO of Snow Lake Lithium, a hard-rock mining operation up in Snow Lake, Manitoba, Canada, and it is quite literally his job to know (or, at least, try to know) precisely how much lithium is out there … and he’s not terribly optimistic.

“Right now, I can tell you precisely how much lithium is being mined in North America, to the ounce,” he says. “Zero,” he makes an “O” with his hand, driving the point home.

We went on to talk about China and South America and how they didn’t want to export lithium to the US, and the relative merits of hard rock mining vs. extracting lithium from brine solutions, but that’s not what stuck with me.

What did stick was this: no matter how you slice it, or where you look for it, there’s not enough lithium to keep up. If the manufacturers and politicians stick to their EV-only plans

https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2022/05/opinion-these-brands-wont-make-it-in-the-us-as-evs/

It takes 7 years to get a lithium mine up and running. I find it hard to believe there is GLOBAL shortage of lithium, I suspect the real issue is that China (and any other producers) would rather export batteries, not raw materials.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

 

[SnTMan]

Maybe you have read about start up Rivian. They have discovered there is no supply chain for batteries

Hmmmm, emoticon not working...

The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

 

[dik]

When I was a kid, I used to collect rocks... one of my samples was a material called Lepidolite. It was a very pretty shiny purple 'flecked' rock. I think it was a micacious type of rock.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Do you feel any better?

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

Lilac Solutions claims to have a solution to the lithium shortage.

https://lilacsolutions.com/

 

[JoshPlumSE]

What did stick was this: no matter how you slice it, or where you look for it, there’s not enough lithium to keep up. If the manufacturers and politicians stick to their EV-only plans

This sort of thing is expected when we make such a huge transition in our economy. Right? Currently, lithium batteries are the most efficient ways to do all electric cars. But, when the shortage really hits, then we'll (hopefully) find other solutions that will become more economical than lithium.
a) It might mean that we get better at recycling lithium from existing batteries.
b) It may mean that EV become less sought after and that hybrids become a better choice.
c) It may mean that we get really good at bio fuels at some point in the future. Maybe combined with batteries (for hybrid type cars).

When I was a kid in a high school economics class we talked about how industry transitioned very quickly one whaling was basically outlawed internationally. Whale blubber was used for so many things. Shampoo, conditioner, soaps. All kinds of products. The teacher brought in a bottle of Jojoba shampoo. It's was made from the oil of this weird desert shrub. When there is a demand, someone will find a way to make something work for it.... And, they'll make a lot of money doing it. Like whoever started farming jojoba roots and selling it to the shampoo industry.

 

[dik]

Some other changes in lifestyle may have to be made... maybe drastic ones.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Do you feel any better?

-Dik

 

[SnTMan]

To have a society and economy naturally transition from one state to another is one thing. To have government mandate a change of state to an arbitrary deadline is another.

The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

 

[dik]

Some other changes in lifestyle may have to be made... maybe drastic ones.

I've already made drastic alterations to my lifestyle. Putting my blue box on the curb every week and banning two-stroke lawnmowers has really impinged on my liberty and the human rights of IC engines.

How much more sacrifice do you want?

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

To have a society and economy naturally transition from one state to another is one thing. To have government mandate a change of state to an arbitrary deadline is another.

That's an awful lot to unpack, so maybe you could explain the politics behind it all.

p.s., transition: not a verb.


"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

[dik]

ironic... It's a start.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Do you feel any better?

-Dik

 

[JoshPlumSE]

To have a society and economy naturally transition from one state to another is one thing. To have government mandate a change of state to an arbitrary deadline is another.

The ban on whaling was a governmental action too. Though it was brought about by the fact that the "resource" was being hunted out of existence.

There are plenty of other examples, transition from leaded to unleaded gasoline.... based on government regulations. Many car features (seat belts, air bags, crumple zones, crash tests, fuel economy, catalytic converters....). LED light bulbs, reduced flow toilets. Energy efficient requirements for windows or appliances or such.

Of course, if you are referring to this specific political opportunist / fraud / huckster, then I totally agree with you:

https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/g...-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/

However, I would argue that this particular move is mere political posturing and is just done for appearances. It has a very tenuous legal basis. Like it's in the Newsom's power to decree by executive order that 2035 all cars sold in California need to be zero emission vehicles. The legislature didn't even vote on it. Newsom won't be governor then.

The CA people love their cars, their economy is built around cars and has almost no mass transit.

Cars are going to get more expensive to buy and to operate. I think that's part of the natural transition. Gas is going to get more and more expensive in a relative way. Though it may not happen as quickly as we think.

 

[SnTMan]

IM, society transitioned its energy sources from biomass to wood to coal to petroleum over hundreds of years without mandates to do so. Very little widespread economic or civic dislocation occurred.

Contrast that with mandates to transition our energy sources to be carbon free renewables in, oh say, twenty-five years without a single project anywhere in the world demonstrating feasibility.

The "politics" is of course AGW.

The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

 

[TugboatEng]

The 2-stroke engine bans and blue recycling bins are good examples bad perception.

Another user posted about the Achates engine reviving the 2-stroke architecture.

And that blue bin? You don't even want to know what happens to the stuff you put in there.

A lot of times government mandates cause us to double down on the problems and don't allow for reflection. They must be absolute.

Don't get me started on carpool and now toll lanes.

 

[Compositepro]

"p.s., transition: not a verb."

ironic metallurgist,
statement such as this do not help your credibility.

noun
noun: transition; plural noun: transitions

the process or a period of changing from one state or condition to another.
"students in transition from one program to another"
h
Similar:
change

verb: transition; 3rd person present: transitions; past tense: transitioned; past participle: transitioned; gerund or present participle: transitioning

undergo or cause to undergo a process or period of transition.
"we have transitioned from a high-intensity combat operation to a support role in the community"

 

[JoshPlumSE]

And that blue bin? You don't even want to know what happens to the stuff you put in there.

I'm pretty sure Ironic Metallurgist post was somewhat tongue in cheek. Basically pointing out that most people are willing to make "changes" so long as they have almost zero impact on their lives.

Those minor changes do make a difference, but it is reasonably minor and (like evolution) takes years or generations to transform society.... And, that's a very different time frame that what we're fearing needs to happen to effectively deal with AGW.

 

[SuperSalad]

society transitioned its energy sources from biomass to wood to coal to petroleum over hundreds of years without mandates to do so. Very little widespread economic or civic dislocation occurred.

Am I understanding you correctly? You are under the belief that society did not experience significant economic or civic dislocation starting toward the beginning of the industrial revolution leading to present day?

- Andrew

 

[SnTMan]

SS, yes you are right, but there was not the wholesale abandonment of that which is known to work for that which is not as is apparently being proposed by governments across the West.


The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

 

Wow, this is a new, bigger and more fascinating rabbit hole with many branches.

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

[SnTMan]

You're right, climbing out now

The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

 

"p.s., transition: not a verb."

Thanks for the extensive, detailed pedantry, but you epically missed an empty net!

Transition is no longer even a word at all, it is a viral mania. Extrapolating from the current trend, I predict that by the end of 2022 it will replace all other action verbs and remain the only one in popular use. (The worst offenders and propagators are our betters in the executive class.)

Further, 'icon' will be the only permitted noun, 'iconic' the only adjective, and 'iconically' the only adverb. Attaining a comprehensive vocabulary has never been easier.

All of this will be effectively codified into law by the chattering classes in media of all types - mass, social, and antisocial. Politicians will heartily endorse it, as they are more enthusiastically sheeplike than the sheep they think they are herding.

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."