I totally agree with Superstress. Without naming names, there once was an OEM who was "encouraged" by the certification authorities to perform an ultimate test on their wing which they did not entirely think was necessary. Three to four years of negotiations later, $$$$ later, multitudes of FEM non linear runs later, volumes of comparisons later, etc., the test was finally performed (the engineers wanted to do it, but management just didnt want to pay the money but finally caved in). The wing failed well prior to reaching ultimate load due to a detail which was overlooked and not predicted by FEM! (note this occurred recently, not in ancient history - history tends to repeat itself lest we learn our lessons and behave humbly once in a while)
FEMs are great tools but they must (and I cannot overemphasize this) be based on correlation to test data. This does not mean one must test everytime, however, one must at least run thru the entire exercise once to understand it and to understand the design and load path of the structure they are modelling. In the old days, OEMs tested all the time and engineers benefited and were trained with that knowledge. The only two OEMs in the USA who still feel this way (although probably not much longer now that beancounters run them) is Boeing and Cessna.
Now, obviously, your case is a bit different. You are not designing a new wing, only a modification. This lessens the overall magnitude of the effort but not its importance.
Superstress is entirely right about the correlation. Linear behavior can be easily correlated to, however, its the non-linear behavior that is difficult to predict. Superstress' example of the spar is a very good one. I am currently working an aging aircraft program where the rear spar web buckles at about 75% of limit load.
Considering your currently low margins with the existing MZFW using classical methods, I am not sure FEM will get you there without some sort of correlation to test data representative of actual flight conditions.
Now, that being said, I would not rule out entirely the possibility of refining your classical methods. There can be a large variation in classical results considering which assumptions are made. The Boeing TES170 method was well correlated to testing and provided very good results (I do know it was used on the 707, 727, 747, and for sizing on the 757 and 767 I believe). So, FEMs are not entirely better but do provide ways of handling things other than a simple box beam.
Also, obviously not being the OEM and probably not having access to their data, you might not know this. But, do you know what structure is critical for changes in the MZFW? Most OEMs generally do this by comparing VMT envelops for the wing and in some cases even are able to write some of it off as not being critical without having to reanalyze. But alas you do not have this luxury. So, you may want to revisit how your loads were developed. Depending on how complete your loads analysis is, you may want to look at what load conditions are affected by the increase in MZFW vs current MZFW and which particular structural components are affected. Then,see which areas are designed as shear resistant or not.
Well,this probably has not been much help but I wish you good luck. As for TES170, I do not believe it is available anywhere on the net. The method was documented in old stress reports but not sure it is available. Its essentially a much elaborated on version of whats in Bruhn or Cozzone's paper on Unit Beam (I myself am still looking for an original copy of his paper - 1943 I believe).
Definitely talk to your cert people and lay out a good plan well ahead of time and it will save you in the long run, they are there to help you. The "once upon a time" OEM I mentioned above where the wing failed ended up paying 10 times what the test would have cost had they done it during the desing phase. I am a firm believer that bean counters have their place, but engineers should be running aircraft companies.
Lots of luck
James Burd
FAA DER - Structures/Fatigue and Damage Tolerance