Fewer Engineers/More Work 28

[metengr]

Has anybody heard or have read stats on the number of engineering graduates per year, and trends?

I was talking with my friends kid the other day about the engineering profession (20 years for me). I know that the job market is highly dependant on location. However, in my discussions with him, it seemed like fewer students are entering engineering schools after the computer dot.com bubble blew up. Does it seem like most college students want to make easy money the easy way versus working as engineers?

If this is the case, I would expect a critical shortage of engineers in the next 5 to 10 years.

 

[pmkPE]

I would like to emphasize moltenmetal's comments regarding risk (that in addition to just compensation for our education, qualifications and so on) there is the very important issue regarding liability! Such liability issues affects our ability to pay for errors and ommision insurance. Since I have been with my firm for over 16 years we have performed work for multi-million dollar contracts in a variety of disciplines and industries including federal, state, municipal, and industrial and some commercial and we have never been sued; in fact we have never had any major problems at all (nothing out of the ordinary). (We pay attention to detail and throughly understand the project and potential problems before the designs are issued). The legal responsibilities that others such as contractors, lawyers and real estate agents try to spread out to civil/strucural engineer's and surveyors is driving our costs for such insurance out of reach for a small firm such as ours. Without establishing acceptable rates for various types of work for engineers across the country, we are going to continue spiraling our charges down competing with the numerous engineers that set up shop based on the lowest prices in town. We have to be aggresive in advertising that qualifications based selection pays in the short and long term. Experienced engineers are worth the higher fees that they (should be ) charging because they can save their clients money by designing economical designs, they can save many misunderstandings by not taking shortcuts in their design presentation/plans - so they communicate more clearly and concisely to the builders and clients. How do we teach the "public", which includes our clients, to select a firm wisely?

There is a saying that doctor's bury their mistakes, engineer's make monuments out of theirs.

 

[QCE]

I have read the survey(thanks moltenmetal it looks to be a nice little report) and it says for engineering 95.1% of engineers have work and it also states that on average 85% of them are in their field. Seems like reasonable numbers to me.

 

[Lorentz]

Hello All:

I'm glad moltenmetal brought up veterinary medicine in his last post. Please check out:

http://www.cvma-acmv.org/Default.asp?section=home

You will learn that there are only 4 colleges in all of Canada that teach veterinary medicine, and that the total number of graduates per year is only 400.

It is my belief that the main goal of engineering faculties is to provide employment for engineering professors, and to accomplish this they must maintain enrollments at much higher levels than society really needs. The results are of course high unemployment and low salaries for engineering graduates.

 

[QCE]

Are we saying 95% employment is too low?
Most salary surveys that I have seen show a steady increase in new grad salaries. Are you saying the salaries are too low? Taking the salary above for example is $58,000Cdn too low for an engineer in training with 2 or less years of experince?

Note I am talking about Canada and don't mean to say this is happening everywhere in the world.

 

[moltenmetal]

Any field in medicine: 99-100% employment
QCE- have a look at that report again:

Two years after a year 2000 Bachelor's graduation, the employment stats were:

Average of ALL fields of engineering: 95.1% (4.9% unemployment)

Average employment for ALL graduates of ALL university programs: 96.1% (3.9% unemployment)

Average unemployment for ALL CANADIANS in the same period, including those who didn't graduate from high school much less a professional program like engineering: 92.7% (7.3% unemployment)

By those stats, engineer were 25% more likely to be unemployed than the average university graduate- that includes ALL programs. Sound like a profession in sharp demand, with a shortage? HARDLY! Is this acceptable? ABSOLUTELY NOT!

This data is for recent Canadian grads only. In the same year as those ~ 8,000 recent eng grads entered the work force, ~ 18,000 engineering immigrants came to Canada...and their work prospects are absolutely terrible- especially in Toronto where 54% of them settled. That's equivalent to 117% of Canada's entire engineering graduating class, looking for work in a city with 17% of Canada's jobs. How does THAT situation sound to you?

As to the stat about 85% being employed in their field- that's a mis-quote on your part. The stat was an average of all grads, not just of engineers, and it was the total number of people who said that their work was either "closely", or "somewhat", related to their university education. It's hard to imagine anyone working in a field which is not at least tangentially related to skills they gained in university. So the question was the equivalent of, "Did you learn ANYTHING in university which is relevant to your present job?". And 85% answered "yes"- big whup! The other 15% are working at McDonalds, I guess! If you asked the question, "Are you working in a profession related to your field of study", I doubt the response would have been anywhere near 85%.

Far from being a profession in demand or shortage, ours is in massive surplus, and getting worse every day. Have another look at those stats and ask yourself which of those professions you'd recommend YOUR child study?! Unless your kid's in love with engineering, I'd send them looking elsewhere. Take optometry for instance: 100% employment and almost twice the starting salary- and only one additional year of training relative to a Bachelor's in engineering. Why can't engineering be like that? It never WILL be if we don't get a handle on the supply side, that's for sure!

 

[QCE]

Wow, that is some funny math.

Would I send my child into a program that has a 95% employment rate? - Yes

It is funny how you state that the study is flawed when it doesn't agree with your opinion but it is perfect when it does agree with your opinion.

 

[metengr]

Hmmmm…..when I started this thread 25 posts ago, I began by stating that one perception from a college student is that fewer students are entering engineering schools. This may or may not be the case, depending on the engineering school and engineering major. Most things in life other than death and taxes are cyclical in nature, so the lull in the job market shall come to pass.

As far as the engineering profession in the US, it is ALIVE and very WELL in the Power Generation, the infrastructure and in the industrial services sectors of the US. The industrial services sector consists of large or small engineering consulting firms that provide equipment condition assessment services, plant operational problem solving, construction project management services for new or re-powering aging power plants, failure analysis of power generation equipment, boiler/pressure vessel inspection services, just to name a few. The infrastructure services sector - road and bridge construction is also alive and well - I see want adds for project (civil and structural) engineers for local state DOT in my Tribune paper in spurts. Take a look around and see how our infrastructure has aged and will require extensive repairs or replacement.

To those gloom and doom engineers that either entered the profession because they wanted to become dot.com millionaires or because they had no clue what an engineer does and decided engineering provides a stable middle class income, better change careers! For those that have a serious interest in the engineering profession, jobs will be found and you will be rewarded both in salary and job satisfaction. Keep your options open for relocation, treat each job as a learning experience, and you will survive.

Engineering jobs that deal with infrastructure improvements and gas/electric utilities in the US can't and won't be outsourced. As far as the influx of engineers to fill these jobs in the US that is total BS! Some of this outsourcing crap has more to deal with political agendas by our folks in Washington, especially around election time.

In my dealings with other power generation companies (Fossil or Nuclear) across the US at technical meetings that I attend, I have not seen one foreign engineer on a visa displacing engineers trained in the US. Granted, most companies are looking to cut costs. This is reality and the effects of a global economy. However, I believe most companies are starting to recognize the importance of keeping seasoned engineers with valuable skill sets and tribal knowledge to avoid re-training new hires. This does pose a problem for new hires because older engineers are remaining on the job longer. However, as time goes on, older engineers will have to retire creating openings for new hires and perhaps energizing succession planning that was prevalent in the past. Succession planning basically kept the job market stable; new hires were mentored to take the place of retired workers. Current engineering students need to explore internships or Coop engineering programs to get a foot in the door prior to graduation.

Sorry folks, but I don't see how any of the engineering jobs in the utility, industrial services or infrastructure sectors in the US will evaporate any time soon!

 

[davefitz]

"the engineering profession is alive and very well in the.. Power generation sector in the US"

Oh, really. There hasn't been more than 5 or 6 large (750 MWe +)coal fired units built since 1980, the 3 largest boiler mfrs are either officially bankrupt on on the edge, of the 2 steam turbine vendors one had to sell out to a german firm, the staff levels at the boiler vendors is about 15% of the level found in the 1990 ( although much can be attributed to productivity increase via software etc). Its about as alive and very well as Benjamin Franklin is.

Because of the financial instability of the US boiler vendors, the most likely vendors to supply the next round of large coal fired units are likely to be from Japan. Similarly, the rate of innovation in the design codes is stagnant at best ( compare ASME code updates to the EU PED). And of course the effect of the Enron debacle on the vendors of HRSGs and related EPC outfits has been devastating.

There may be some truth that there is work to be had in life extension of the 50+ yr old base of fossil units ( and to also address a possible rash of premature P91 failures) , but if these units are ultimately replaced , it would be a challenge for the US engineering force to credibly address that demand using the workforce and financial resources in place.

 

[metengr]

There are various power plants that will be built in the Midwest over the next 5 years because the idiots that invested in combined and simple cycle power plants are going belly-up with natural gas prices. Nuclear is holding its own. Where do you think electric power is going to come from to meet future demand from air???

If you think simple or combined cycle power plants can compete with low cost coal-WAKE-UP MAN. Our coal fired power plants are in demand day in and day out. I see nothing but potential in the energy sector for the next 10 years +. Fluidized bed boilers have great potential with state of the art environmental upgrades.

Where the heck do you reside on an island??????

 

[davefitz]

I suggest you do a little research and look at who are the successful bidders for these new coal plants. "Samurai power engineer" may be a suitable skit for Saturday night live.

 

[metengr]

Also,...
forgot to mention that one boiler OEM in the US that supplies components to our particular units and other fossil units across the US is very much alive. In fact, they have made money for their parent company. Keeping these old fossil units runnin....

 

[Lorentz]

I could almost give you a star metengr for your advice:

To those gloom and doom engineers that either entered the profession because they wanted to become dot.com millionaires or because they had no clue what an engineer does and decided engineering provides a stable middle class income, better change careers!

The problem is that university professors recruit high school graduates by preying on their misconceptions as to the reality of engineering. Quite often these students do find some type of work upon graduation, but they may be underemployed in "token" engineering jobs that could just as well be done by someone with a college diploma.

The question facing students deciding whether to go to university or not is: "Is the extra tuition expense and lost wages justified, or would I be better off going to a community college?"

A final warning I will give to high school seniors, is that at anytime legislation can be passed to change the rules regarding the level of education required for an occupation. This has happened in nursing. Some regions seeing a "critical shortage" have coped by setting up 2 year "practical" nursing programs at colleges much to the anger of students enrolled in 4 year university nursing programs. Another measure is to simply import nursing grads from developing countries.

It seems though metengr, that your fears of a critical shortage of engineers have been alleviated. If your friend's kid decides not to pursue engineering I am confident that there will be plenty of others (imported from the third world if needed) to fill the gap.

 

[metengr]

lorentz;
I must say, I do enjoy this forum. It is a great way to have interesting discussion on important issues.

 

[moltenmetal]

QCE:

What's funny about my math? Have a look at my previously-posted link which shows the supply situation for engineers in Canada vs time and see if you're still laughing!

I didn't praise the study when it supported my point of view and criticize it when it didn't. I did what a good engineer is supposed to do: I looked critically at the data and drew my own conclusions. If you read the study, the 85% stat is not a measure of how many people are employed in their field of study, because that's NOT the question that was asked. And the "95% employment" stat is not a measure of how many engineering grads are employed in their field, it's a measure of how many of them have a job of ANY KIND after two years. To sum it up, a kid graduating after four years of having the snot beaten out of them in an engineering program, with a matching student debt, is about 25% less likely to be employed in a job OF ANY KIND than the average university graduate. Is that satisfactory? Not to me it isn't, and I doubt it's satisfactory to those kids who are out of work, either! Why, then, would we INCREASE engineering school enrollments year over year? That's EXACTLY what's been done in Ontario. Combined with immigration rates for engineers which have increased 12-fold in a decade, ENGINEERING employment prospects for Ontario's engineering grads are terrible and getting progressively worse.

The key stats here are the comparison of the employment numbers from one profession to another. Engineering loses in that comparison big time. If you chart the relative compensation levels of the professions versus time in Canada, you'll see that we started out with wage parity with doctors and lawyers in the '50s and '60s and now we earn less than half of what doctors do. If a kid is smart enough to gain entry into an engineering program, chances are they have other options open to them too. Why actively recruit them into a profession suffering from a drastic over-supply?

Nobody's accused me of it directly, but there's an implication that I'm some kind of "dissatisfied engineer"- somebody who regrets his career choice because it doesn't earn me enough money. Nothing could be further from the truth- I'm entirely satisfied with my choice of profession, and although I wouldn't say no to a 20% raise I'm not actively searching for another job either. Engineering suits my skills and interests perfectly. What I AM dissatisfied with, and feel all engineers should be dissatisfied with, is the continual devaluation of my services relative to those of the other senior professions. I'm dissatisfied with the ratio of reward to risk in my profession, which has shrunk drastically in the past 50 years. I feel, and the data I have supports that feeling, that one of the major causes of this decline is our utter inability as a profession to get a handle on the supply situation. I'm too proud in my profession to permit its devaluation to continue unnoticed.

 

[Tobalcane]

"As far as the engineering profession in the US, it is ALIVE and very WELL in the Power Generation"

Well for the Nuclear Engineer, this statment is not true. As stated by the Department of Labor.

"Little or no growth in employment of nuclear engineers is expected through 2012. Due to public concerns over the cost and safety of nuclear power, no commercial nuclear powerplants have been built in the United States for many years. "

Go Mechanical Engineering
Tobalcane

 

[metengr]

Tobalcane;
Sorry, but I know several engineers that work for the largest nuclear generator in the US (Exelon Corp). Apparently Exelon has been hiring (20 this year) nuclear engineers, and from what I hear they can't find enough qualified engineers to fill certain plant positions.

Either people don't want to move to the Midwest to fill jobs at nuclear power plants or somebody is having a field day with Department of Labor Stats.

Like any good engineer, always question the source and validity of data!!!!

 

[QCE]

moltenmetal,

What I meant was that you agree that 95% number for number employed, but is it 95% plus or minus 5%. We don't know. Then you argue that the 85% average is no good. You assume that the engineering college is less than 85% when in fact it could be higher. Again we don't know. What I meant by the funny math is that you sound like a politician that has a PhD in statistics. How many people would look at 95% versus 96% and say that you are 25% less likely to have a job, most would say you are 1% more likely to have a job.

OK, I change my mind them, we should ban immigration of people with engineering degrees and cut enrollment at engineering colleges so we can all get a raise in pay.

I'm sure industry would just go along with it. I'm sure they wouldn't think about hiring 2 year technical school grads with "engineeering certifications".

 

[havesealwilltravel]

I've heard of "the engineering shortage" just about my entire career (30 years). Except for short periods, there has always been an excess of engineers. This is why engineering salaries have not kept pace with the real professions such as Pharmacy, Medicine, Law, etc.

I'm sorry if this offends people and I'm sure some people will get defensive and say that I'm wrong. Before you get defensive consider the facts.

Employers and professional societies are interested in keeping a large supply of cheap, competent engineers available. To this end, they have created the “shortage” fairy tale, encouraged students to go into engineering and petitioned for immigrant quotas to be relaxed for engineers.

Currently, industry (and the related engineering) is going overseas. Engineering work is being outsourced overseas. Unless schools cut back severely on engineering graduations or engineers begin to die in large numbers, the glut of engineers will become severe.

Employers are reluctant to hire competent but untrained engineers and bear the cost of education. They want a large supply of highly trained engineers available so that they can hire them for the duration of a project and lay them off at the end of the project. I have had many calls recently from recruiters looking for engineers who can "hit the decks running" or "attack an aggressive schedule". The salaries offered were mediocre at best. When they cannot hire engineers for their short-term projects at low wages they cry "shortage".

If they offer an attractive salary with good benefits, compensate for relocation and provide reasonable job security (or an employment contract), the "shortage” will quickly resolve itself.

 

[Lorentz]

Good to hear from you dannym!

Engineering has always been, at best, a "cyclical" occupation; when the economy catches a cold engineering grads catch pneumonia.

A good example of this was provided by the 1984 book:

What Jobs Pay, Complete Guide to Careers & Salaries in Canada.
Anisef, Paul & Baichman, Etta.

At the time the book was written the authors reported the following conditions:

"Job prospects for engineers in 1983 were extremely poor. One-quarter of the 1982 engineering graduates were out of work, while three-quarters of the 1983 graduating class were unable to find employment in their field."

They also noted (commenting about the 1982 grads):

"For the first time, university engineering graduates discovered that employment opportunities were decidedly mixed and that employers frequently preferred to hire graduates of technical institutes insofar as they were generally able to pay them lower salaries."

Now that was 20 years ago. Today, we have outsourcing to third world countries, plus modern productivity software that further reduces the number of engineers needed.

For all of these reasons, I would not recommend any high school graduate enroll in engineering unless they have "connections" that guarantee them a job upon graduation.

 

[profengmen]

How incredibly short sighted are these myopic questions....

1. Do you know a successful engineer who is willing to mentor you after you graduate? If the answer is no, that's strike one.

First of all, they are asking YOU that question, and if you are not a successful engineer, then maybe they should ask someone else; furthermore, if they are asking you this question, and you answer it, are you not mentoring? If not, are you willing to mentor? Also, they are going to go to school for 4 years, at least; don't you think that will give them enough time to find a mentor? Of course, WTH said they even need a mentor? I never had a mentor, and I am quite successful as an engineer.... stupid question.

2. Do you know any working engineers, or at least technicians or tradespeople who can tell you the type of working conditions you will encounter if you are able to land a job upon graduation? If no, strike two.

WHAT???? Are you serious? A high school kid, not even starting college, is suppose to explore ever aspect of industry by talking to the handful of people he/she might know? What an absurd question, completely irrelevant toward decision making. So, he's going to go talk to a machinist, and ask to see where he works, and make a career decision based on that...come on. I never talked to anyone about this, I made the decision based on what I liked studying in highschool...did it occur to you to ask what they studied in high school as a major? Get any insight as to the interests? Innovative qualities?

3. Does the university you are planning to attend have a co-op program to give students practical work experience? If no strike three. Best take a look at some other career.

Co-ops do not make an engineer.... Please leave the counseling to the professionals, you missed the mark completly...

If someone asks me about engineering, I talk about it and let them make the decision....