How the Climate Change Science Sausage Gets Made 5

[SnTMan]

This is an interesting article about how climate change science gets published (or not).

I don't know anything about the Free Press as a source, but the article and its author seems credible to me. You decide.

Article

Author Bio

Any further similar articles out there?

EDIT: After posting I found this image on a different site discussing the same article. Too good not to add:

Heh

The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

 

[JoshPlumSE]

That picture is soooo awesome!

 

[JoshPlumSE]

The guys article was really good as well. Maybe it's a bit of confirmation bias on my part. But, he's saying things that I've always suspected. And, he's saying it in a way that doesn't sound (at least to me) like it's biased or serving a particular agenda.

My thoughts about global warming have always tended to be:
a) It's happening. There's good data for it and good science behind it.
b) Humans are at least a partial cause. Likely the primary cause, but I can't say that definitively.
c) Green Energy (solar and wind) are NOT an economically viable solution to our problem.
d) There are more efficient ways to spend our money to deal with the issue. But, in the reduction in greenhouse gases and our ability to adapt to a warmer climate.
e) Handing over nearly unlimited power to our governments to solve this problem is a TERRIBLE idea.

 

[GregLocock]

f) handing over a significant proportion of GDP to China so that their coal powered economy can manufacture marginally useful windmills and pv panels is counterproductive.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

 

[TugboatEng]

g) classify additional coal consumption as an offset so that it does not count towards their per capita CO2.

 

[dik]

Coal is only a part of the 'carbon problem'... I think the ugliest part... but, only part of the fossil fuel issue. I'm not thrilled with India bringing coal on line to produce power to combat the high temperatures... The world's CO[sub]2[/sub] continues to climb.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[rb1957]

how about all the other ways we produce CO2 ? (It's not just FFs)

how about all the other ways we impact the environment ? (it's not just CO2)

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

 

[dik]

Concur... but, CO[sub]2[/sub] is the current big problem, and fossil fuels are a really big contributer. All others pale in comparison to the potential outcome.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[rb1957]

your opinion, not mine. we're focusing on CO2, and mostly on CO2 from FFs, 'cause that the political agenda being pushed. And it allows for nice snappy sound bites like "net zero" and "carbon neutral".

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

 

[JoshPlumSE]

I bet the cement industry isn't happy about appearing on that graph! LOL

It would be good to also see a graph for CO2 emissions per MW of power generated by fossil fuels. Here is the closest I could quickly find. Coal is roughly twice as bad as Natural Gas. Solar (PV) is roughly three times as bad as nuclear. Nuclear and wind are clearly the champs.

Now, I think this is very good data when it comes to assessing our Electrical Grid and where we should invest our resources to improve CO2 emissions. But, when we start talking about TRANSPORTATION, I don't think it really applies. For reasons related to range and infrastructure and such.

 

[rb1957]

yes, I thought concrete created a large CO2 emission.

I'm surprised bio-mass is so "bad" ... I thought the point to bio-mass was that the CO2 produced had only recently removed (borrowed ?) from the atmosphere ... so closed to "net zero" ?

What is "co-fired bio-mass" ? Combining bio-mass with other FF type ?

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

 

[JoshPlumSE]

I believe "Co-firing" of biomass is when you use biomass stuff in combination with coal in a coal based electric generation plant. My guess is that it's done as a way to get around some of the many regulations that have passed against the coal industry recently.

I don't know how they get their values for biomass. My guess is that the thinking is that it's primarily waste products from other industries (especially pulp and paper). If so, then it could be related to cutting down older forests. So, creating CO2 that was stored up in the trees. As opposed to using green waste from agriculture which is all recently generated plants.

I think that may be the difference between the assumed 'biomass' (assumed to be old growth) used in electricity generation versus the way we make "bio-diesel" fuels. Where biodiesels are mostly generated from corn and other agricultural products. Though there is some complaints about this as well if they are over harvesting their land (and adding tons of fertilizer to compensate) when producing the agricultural products that generate biodiesel.

 

[dik]

I believe this is not true, and it is not based on political agenda. Coal is bad, but so is petroleum and natural gas... the US is using China and India's use of coal as an excuse for not doing anything. People have known for decades that CO[sub]2[/sub] is harmful, but the total carbon footprint continues to rise.

Concrete cement does have a fairly high carbon footprint, but the industry (with small successes) is trying to mitigate this.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

The problem is that they are both bad.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[rb1957]

and yet the UK is betting big time on NG ?

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

 

[JoshPlumSE]

People have known for decades that CO2 is harmful, but the total carbon footprint continues to rise.

What do you mean by this? CO2 is not HARMFUL in any immediate way. It's really good for stimulating plant growth. You do that in greenhouses. So, it is 100% all natural.

I can breathe in CO2 without any ill effects at all. As long as I continue to get enough oxygen, no harm will come to me.

What I think you mean is that CO2 is one of the gasses associated with Global Warming. And, that's been known for decades.

The problem is that they are both bad.

Compared to what? Compared to getting ALL our energy from nuclear, wind, solar and unicorn farts, yes (in that context) they would both be considered bad. But, the key reality is that Unicorn Farts and green energy are not sufficient to keep our society running. We need energy. And, we CANNOT stop CO2 emissions from increasing. Not without a totalitarian state that imposes draconian measures on its population.... And, not without going to war with OTHER countries to impose those same draconian measures. I believe we can make reasonable changes to do our part (by eliminating coal and switching to low cost energy methods that produce less CO2 per MW).

Unfortunately, we could reduce our CO2 output in the Western World by 50% over the next 10 years and it wouldn't make a difference. The GLOBAL CO2 emissions will continue to rise because of China, India, Asia, South America, Africa and other developing regions. The rate that they are increasing their CO2 emissions far outpaces the rate at which we are decreasing ours.

Look at the chart below. CO2 emissions are relatively flat for the North America and Europe over the last 50 years. But, it has gone way, way, way up in other countries. We can't prevent them from seeking the better standard of living that comes from abundant energy production. It's going to happen. And, there's little we can do about it.

 

[enginesrus]

dik lets get rid of the catch words like "fossil fuel" there is no such thing.

Co2 does not affect the winds or high and low pressure areas. It takes an energy source to accomplish that.
For that energy source look into the disclosure project and the witnesses that testified, under oath.

 

[Tmoose]

Texas has it's own grid.
In good conscience and for other reasons they have closed some fossil fuel plants and replaced them with windmills in the windy western part of the state.

This morning at 4 AM things were working pretty well. About 19 bux per MW wholesale price. 9600 MW reserve.

A couple hours later folks were eating breakfast and sipping coffee in the 102° heat when the wind died down.
8100 MW is about normal for Texas.
Operating reserves went to just 2400 MW. Less than $20 per MW wholesale.
Level 2 emergency alert. Right on the verge of rolling black outs.

https://www.texastribune.org/2023/09/06/texas-ercot-power-grid-rolling-blackouts/

The wholesale price jumped from less than 20 US bux/MW to 3700 to 5200 bux per MW.
I think that means the plants that failed to provide the power they had contracted for had to "buy" it from other plants at the high price.
And the remaining plants that were running and could supply the needed additional power were laughing hysterically and making a bunch of money. 40 million US bux per hour.
Plant A is run pretty well. 98% availability.

"As part of President Biden’s goal of having 50 percent of all new vehicle sales be electric by 2030, the White House is announcing public and private commitments to support America’s historic transition to electric vehicles (EV) under the EV Acceleration Challenge. These commitments are part of President Biden’s Investing in America agenda to spur domestic manufacturing, strengthen supply chains, boost U.S. competitiveness and create good-paying jobs. Because of President Biden’s leadership and historic investments, electric vehicle sales have tripled and the number of publicly available charging ports has grown by over 40 percent since he took office. There are now more than three million EVs on the road and over 135,000 public EV chargers across the country. "

In 2021 Texas had about 6X more wind power than California.

https://neo.ne.gov/programs/stats/inf/205.htm

 

[dik]

As long as the rest of the world and I understand that this means coal, petroleum, and natural gas... it exists. If there is a common understanding of what a word means and it can be used for communication, the word is fine. The term aptly describes the product... sorry eng, I disagree...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

as I noted... I think global warming is harmful and is substantially caused by excess CO[sub]2[/sub]. Current weather events may confirm this...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik