Layoffs 2024-2025 ?? 3

[ilikecoffee]

Hi All, I am approaching my 6 th year in engineering in the automotive industry. I see a layoffs in the news and in the office. I am interested in hearing from members who have been around for a few business cycles. What can we expect ? What is typical ? Is there a way to keep my head down and avoid the slip?

 

[CWB1]

Avoiding layoffs in the auto industry stateside is like avoiding seasonal colds - an extraordinary few succeed but good luck to most. There are smaller Tier1&2s that layoff less but IME they usually pay lousy. My personal strategy:
1. Only accept top-paying roles. A top slot often means you earn the same in 8-10 months as others do in 12, so the layoff becomes a financially irrelevant unpaid vacation vs a financial hardship.
2. Maintain healthy liquid savings, not only to fund your layoff but also bc downturns are great investment opportunities.
3. Network and maintain open offers in the "rest" of the automotive industry (construction/ag, rail, power-gun, etc) to minimize layoffs during industry downturns. Twice I've left on a Friday and reported to the new desk in another state on Monday.
4. Be prepared to follow the work/money. Not only does being open to relocation increase the job pool but relocation incentives can be very profitable.
5. If a major downturn is imminent, volunteer to be in the first round of layoffs bc they receive the highest severance and the job market wont be as-saturated with unemployed engineers. If you ask, HR is often willing to share severance formula/details ahead of time.
6. Be ready to go bc they happen fast. Many companies cut access, call you to a bs meeting with your boss or HR, walk you out, and somebody else packs/mails your desk. Clean your desk down to non-valuable, non-personal essentials that you dont care about losing. Carry your wallet and keys. Get personal projects/vehicles offsite. Make a contact list of coworkers numbers you want to keep in touch with. And most importantly - dont be the one that leaves crying, prepare yourself mentally. Being laid off is a shock followed by a huge stress relief.
7. When laid off, send a text, email, etc to former colleagues thanking them for the camaraderie and share your personal contact info. Followup once in awhile to say hello afterward bc many become less shy about being friendly when you're no longer colleagues.

 

[GregLocock]

In 45 years working in automotive (except for 6 years) every company i have worked for has been sold off, broken up or near bankrupt. In that time I have been through 5 rounds of layoffs, applied for every one (voluntary retrenchment terms in Australia are generous), and finally got one at which point retired which was rather convenient. I spent a grand total of 12 weeks unemployed in that time, mostly because i delayed accepting what turned out to be one of the best jobs I ever had.

I don't think keeping your head down is the answer. If you are an asset they won't want to get rid of you. So people with offices need to know who you are.

 

[ilikecoffee]

In 45 years working in automotive (except for 6 years) every company i have worked for has been sold off, broken up or near bankrupt. In that time I have been through 5 rounds of layoffs, applied for every one (voluntary retrenchment terms in Australia are generous), and finally got one at which point retired which was rather convenient. I spent a grand total of 12 weeks unemployed in that time, mostly because i delayed accepting what turned out to be one of the best jobs I ever had.

I don't think keeping your head down is the answer. If you are an asset they won't want to get rid of you. So people with offices need to know who you are.

In 45 years working in automotive (except for 6 years) every company i have worked for has been sold off, broken up or near bankrupt. In that time I have been through 5 rounds of layoffs, applied for every one (voluntary retrenchment terms in Australia are generous), and finally got one at which point retired which was rather convenient. I spent a grand total of 12 weeks unemployed in that time, mostly because i delayed accepting what turned out to be one of the best jobs I ever had.

I don't think keeping your head down is the answer. If you are an asset they won't want to get rid of you. So people with offices need to know who you are

Avoiding layoffs in the auto industry stateside is like avoiding seasonal colds - an extraordinary few succeed but good luck to most. There are smaller Tier1&2s that layoff less but IME they usually pay lousy. My personal strategy:
1. Only accept top-paying roles. A top slot often means you earn the same in 8-10 months as others do in 12, so the layoff becomes a financially irrelevant unpaid vacation vs a financial hardship.
2. Maintain healthy liquid savings, not only to fund your layoff but also bc downturns are great investment opportunities.
3. Network and maintain open offers in the "rest" of the automotive industry (construction/ag, rail, power-gun, etc) to minimize layoffs during industry downturns. Twice I've left on a Friday and reported to the new desk in another state on Monday.
4. Be prepared to follow the work/money. Not only does being open to relocation increase the job pool but relocation incentives can be very profitable.
5. If a major downturn is imminent, volunteer to be in the first round of layoffs bc they receive the highest severance and the job market wont be as-saturated with unemployed engineers. If you ask, HR is often willing to share severance formula/details ahead of time.
6. Be ready to go bc they happen fast. Many companies cut access, call you to a bs meeting with your boss or HR, walk you out, and somebody else packs/mails your desk. Clean your desk down to non-valuable, non-personal essentials that you dont care about losing. Carry your wallet and keys. Get personal projects/vehicles offsite. Make a contact list of coworkers numbers you want to keep in touch with. And most importantly - dont be the one that leaves crying, prepare yourself mentally. Being laid off is a shock followed by a huge stress relief.
7. When laid off, send a text, email, etc to former colleagues thanking them for the camaraderie and share your personal contact info. Followup once in awhile to say hello afterward bc many become less shy about being friendly when you're no longer colleagues.

Thanks!

 

[gruntguru]

My crystal ball shows layoffs in many industries across the US in 2025. Mostly in Government but also in any industry related to renewable energy. Don't worry though, there will be millions of unskilled jobs becoming vacant in the hospitality sector.

 

[BrianPetersen]

My crystal ball is cloudy, but I see layoffs ahead in almost anything that involves manufacturing and retailing, and unskilled jobs in USA going unfilled in most any outdoor work ... and gruntguru has a fair point about hospitality, as well.

I'm happy to be retired, but it doesn't mean I don't have work to do. No private pension plan, and I'm not old enough to be collecting Canada Pension Plan, so I'm on my own. In the near future, I have to polish up that crystal ball and take an educated guess about how much shares in a certain large company with international operations are likely to get hit over the next few months, and then decide what I want to do with that guess. (Canadian based, but operates internationally, and is in a sector that is likely to be affected.) Cash seems pretty attractive. Warren Buffett seems to be on that page, too. Or maybe I'll switch to a Canadian dividend-payer that does most of its business here, and is in a sector that seems less likely to be affected by happenings across the border.

 

[IRstuff]

Do be cognizant that high pay often needs to be commensurate with high performance; many managers see highly-paid staff as a burden, since getting rid of (senior) highly-paid staff means the percentage raises for the lower paid go up substantially. I had one manager that did the "rack and stack" every raise period to determine whether the highly paid staff was cost-effective to him and his goals.

 

[cibachrome]

Avoiding layoffs in the auto industry stateside is like avoiding seasonal colds - an extraordinary few succeed but good luck to most. There are smaller Tier1&2s that layoff less but IME they usually pay lousy. My personal strategy:
1. Only accept top-paying roles. A top slot often means you earn the same in 8-10 months as others do in 12, so the layoff becomes a financially irrelevant unpaid vacation vs a financial hardship.
2. Maintain healthy liquid savings, not only to fund your layoff but also bc downturns are great investment opportunities.
3. Network and maintain open offers in the "rest" of the automotive industry (construction/ag, rail, power-gun, etc) to minimize layoffs during industry downturns. Twice I've left on a Friday and reported to the new desk in another state on Monday.
4. Be prepared to follow the work/money. Not only does being open to relocation increase the job pool but relocation incentives can be very profitable.
5. If a major downturn is imminent, volunteer to be in the first round of layoffs bc they receive the highest severance and the job market wont be as-saturated with unemployed engineers. If you ask, HR is often willing to share severance formula/details ahead of time.
6. Be ready to go bc they happen fast. Many companies cut access, call you to a bs meeting with your boss or HR, walk you out, and somebody else packs/mails your desk. Clean your desk down to non-valuable, non-personal essentials that you dont care about losing. Carry your wallet and keys. Get personal projects/vehicles offsite. Make a contact list of coworkers numbers you want to keep in touch with. And most importantly - dont be the one that leaves crying, prepare yourself mentally. Being laid off is a shock followed by a huge stress relief.
7. When laid off, send a text, email, etc to former colleagues thanking them for the camaraderie and share your personal contact info. Followup once in awhile to say hello afterward bc many become less shy about being friendly when you're no longer colleagues.

I'd add 1 more item. If you have stayed on the forefront of your company's technology base, you become the subject matter expert that they can not afford to loose. Stay out of all management positions to stay in the 'game' in the trenches. You might even be asked to hire in as a consultant if you were let go. Then you make them pay.

 

[dik]

This is a bad industry to be in. IMHO.

With the advent of BEVs, the German auto industry is about to get decimated, I suspect. They have not kept up until recently and have still been favouring ICE vehicles. They have been losing massive amounts of money. The North American auto manufacturers are not in a much better position. We'll see what happens with the Donald's tariffs; they are not likely going to improve the situation.

 

[3DDave]

Body, interior, comfort/climate, sound, suspension/handling, styling, glass, exterior lighting, tires, rims; I think they will remain OK.
Engine and transmission and anyone who has specialized in fuel tanks will have to move.
The guys doing brakes are in for a challenge of making them work when they are used more rarely.
Strangely, the cooling engineers should be able to slot over with the battery and motor thermal management, adding that they need to supply heat to the batteries sometimes so the chemistry works correctly.
More room for software and electrical computing/embedded systems and sensor engineers.

 

[CWB1]

There's been big reductions in not only the powertrain half of development but also vehicle level testing as overall, EVs have fewer parts so less to integrate and test. I wouldnt say the auto industry is a bad place to be tho, its the US' largest manufacturing segment and pays better than most. Had I not been offered a healthy raise and pension to jump into regulation I'd have stayed in the auto industry and likely powertrain.

 

[dik]

I wouldnt say the auto industry is a bad place to be tho...

This might be changing.

 

[GregLocock]

Yet another observation rendered meaningless by 'might'.

 

[dik]

Yet another observation rendered meaningless by 'might'.

Not meaningless... just uncertain. It's sort of a 'heads up', in case it does happen. I'd hate to be caught off guard.

 

[BrianPetersen]

"EVs have fewer parts so less to integrate and test."

Well, I wouldn't say "fewer", just "different". The motor is simpler than an engine, the gear-reducer is simpler than a transmission, there's no exhaust system or fuel system, but the battery and electronic controls and thermal management systems take their place. Under the hood of my Chevy Bolt is an engine-compartment worth of stuff: AC battery charger (converts incoming AC power to DC battery-charging power), DC-to-DC converter (converts 400-ish volts DC from the main battery to 14-ish, taking the place of an alternator, to operate all the low voltage systems, which are the same as any other car), power distribution module, inverter for the main drive motor and the A/C compressor (which is electrically driven), the main drive module with the motor-driven A/C compressor hanging off of it, 3 coolant bottles, 3 coolant pumps for the 3 systems in the vehicle that require thermal management and all of which operate at different temperatures. And this is an outdated-tech vehicle that makes no attempt to recover waste heat from the powertrain to help with interior heating, and it uses resistance-heat, not a heat pump like some newer and fancier models have.

There will be a shift from mechanical-parts manufacturers to electrical-parts manufacturers. The major Tier 1 that I did a lot of work for prior to retirement, was certainly ready for this shift.

 

[dik]

I understand the operating costs are substantially reduced, too.

 

[GregLocock]

So long as you ignore depreciation and insurance and tires, you are absolutely right.

 

[dik]

So long as you ignore depreciation and insurance and tires, you are absolutely right.

That's changing... the batteries are becoming better and lasting for decades. You can get much longer distances with them. The new batteries are not prone to ignition. Due to the added weight, the tires are a bit of a problem but are being improved. In the last decade they have made huge improvements and will continue. The quality control has improved considerably. I remember the first Datsuns that came over (Japanese). It is a industry in its infancy. There is a really good chance they will totally replace ICE engines in the future. In Norway, 93% of the vehicles are EVs.

I haven't driven for the last 6 years, so I have no idea of what the insurance costs are. Are the insurance costs local or international. EVs are flourishing around the world but due to politics, not in North America.

 

[CWB1]

Well, I wouldn't say "fewer", just "different".

It obviously depends on vehicle class/type but there are thousands fewer p/ns, I vaguely recall one of the vehicle chiefs saying it was ~30% fewer p/ns for cars.

The powertrain Tier1s are scrambling to reinvent themselves atm bc outsourcing has dropped significantly. Most banked on supplying drive units, the various controller/converter/black boxes, or battery packs bc the OEs outsourced a lot of that work for the first few EV models. Conferences became downright boring bc everybody's showing off the same hardware. Unfortunately for them the OEs' downsizing engine production freed up capacity, so EV parts moved in-house.

 

[lucky-guesser]

EVs are flourishing around the world but due to politics, not in North America.

Not because of politics, but because so few people want them. Numerous policies have been in place for 5-10 years to encourage people to switch, and people just don't want to.

Kalifornia has (had?) a bill on the books to require X% car sales each year to be electric (maybe it was hybrid, but you get the point), with that % going up each year with all cars to be electric by 2035 if I recall correctly. Toyota recently came out and said that this law has to be removed, as no one is buying their hybrids, so to meet the required percentage it destroys their ICE sales as well.

Policy is slowly relaxing to match the rejection by the American consumer.