Layoffs 2024-2025 ?? 3

[ilikecoffee]

Hi All, I am approaching my 6 th year in engineering in the automotive industry. I see a layoffs in the news and in the office. I am interested in hearing from members who have been around for a few business cycles. What can we expect ? What is typical ? Is there a way to keep my head down and avoid the slip?

 

[GregLocock]

Several companies have walked back on their heavily publicised intention to be all electric by 203x, including, in world shattering news Lotus. That'll up-end the market. Maybe Toyota were right all long. What a surprise.

 

[dik]

but because so few people want them

You might be out of step... in many countries around the world EVs are making great inroads. Norway has 93% of its vehicles as EVs. It's just the US and the countries it 'controls' that are not keeping up.

 

[LittleInch]

Not because of politics, but because so few people want them. Numerous policies have been in place for 5-10 years to encourage people to switch, and people just don't want to.

Kalifornia has (had?) a bill on the books to require X% car sales each year to be electric (maybe it was hybrid, but you get the point), with that % going up each year with all cars to be electric by 2035 if I recall correctly. Toyota recently came out and said that this law has to be removed, as no one is buying their hybrids, so to meet the required percentage it destroys their ICE sales as well.

Policy is slowly relaxing to match the rejection by the American consumer.

I am curious as to why apparently "so few people want them"?

Price?
Charging?
Range?

 

[dik]

Those have all improved. China has some models that are less than $10K US. There is less maintenance. Range is improving to 400 or 500 km and much more; Charging time is improving to just several minutes. They are fast... some BEVs can do 0 to 60mph in 2 seconds. They will supplant ICE engines everywhere, except the US, very quickly... just based on price. Norway is 93% BEVs. They are likely the vehicle of the future.

 

[GregLocock]

The reason they are popular in Norway is that the Norwegian government has a whole host of ways encouraging you to buy an EV. They can afford to do this because they export a great deal of fossil fuel. Hence it is a luxury belief. In Denmark or the Netherlands (can't remember which) when similar incentives were removed EV sales collapsed.

Your government subsidised Chinese 10k vehicle doesn't meet crash regs. It is also tiny.

"There is less maintenance." and there is more depreciation, and insurance costs are higher. I don't suppose you run your own car, but depreciation is >> servicing . For a diesel SUV, in 5 years I'll pay about $2000 in servicing, and lose about $20000 in depreciation. Insurance for my car is about half of that for an equivalent priced Tesla, for well understood reasons

So please stop repeating kaffeeklatsch gossip. the numbers show you are wrong.

 

[dik]

Your government subsidised Chinese 10k vehicle doesn't meet crash regs. It is also tiny.

Norway extracted money for the development in the North Sea that allowed them to assist the people and they have a much cleaner environment to show for it. The US (and Canada for that matter) could have done the same.

The UK's North Sea development did not help the people at all, and after they privatised the heat energy companies, their fuel bills went through the ceiling and the new gas outfit made profits that skyrocketed 1000%. They should have taken lessons from Norway.

The Chinese government initially greatly subsidised EV production to get the industry started and it still helps start up firms. The EV industry took off. The US government could have done the same but didn't. They have no one to blame but themselves. Instead companies in the US could increase their profits if they outsourced their products to China (and others). This caused the loss of the lead the US had in manufacturing. Now they have lost nearly all manufacturing because of these increased profits. American industries get huge grants from the US government, and no one complains about it.

Unfortunately it's not gossip.

 

[GregLocock]

Yet the numbers show you are wrong, and you ignored why the BYD only costs 10k. It doesn't meet crash and it is tiny.

 

[dik]

It doesn't meet crash and it is tiny.

https://www.ancap.com.au/safety-ratings/byd

I don't know about the 10K one, but I suspect that it does. Can you post a link to your assertion?

 

[GregLocock]

That's right you don't know. But you still post. Content free as usual.

 

[dik]

That's right you don't know. But you still post. Content free as usual.

I suspect that if it's for sale, it has to meet countries safety standards, but I don't know. The other BYD vehicles have excellent safety ratings, so I would assume that even the least expensive one would too.

Where is your source that it doesn't?

 

[BrianPetersen]

The BYD Seagull is not (yet) sold in Australia and hasn't been tested (or perhaps it has, but results are not yet published), but all of its companion models including the marginally-bigger Dolphin have been tested, and have good NCAP ratings (5 stars).

https://www.reddit.com/r/cars/comments/1b98ulb/byds_seagull_ev_now_costs_under_10k_the_west_is

Testing within China to their own standards (which I know nothing about) had good ratings: https://www.auto-in-china.com/enhanced-safety-and-cold-weather-capabilities-of-byd-seagull/

From what I can tell from quite far away, it looks like the basics are there, and the manufacturer knows what they are doing.

Let us remember that in the early 1970s, Japanese cars were mostly laughed off. Then they figured stuff out, and captured a substantial portion of the US market. We have family experience with this. My dad bought a 1978 Honda, and never bought another American-branded car after that. He did buy a couple of US-built cars ... after Japan Inc started building cars there under their own nameplates.

Then t happened again in the late 1980s, when Korean cars were mostly laughed off. Then they figured stuff out, and again captured a good chunk of the US (and world) market.

It's happening again, this time being China. Look out.

Lead, follow, get out of the way, or get run over.

 

[GregLocock]

I'm sure Seagull meets Chinese safety regs, that is, as usual, not the point.

With respect to NCAP. Short 4 seater cars have problems with offset frontal crash as the foot space is restricted. Narrow 4 seater cars have problems with side impact, as the distance between the incoming 1365 kg mobile barrier to the occupants is small (although the Seagull specifically is not particularly narrow). Light cars have problems with mobile barrier crashes because of conservation of momentum - halving the mass of the car doubles the accelerations seen.

I did find this quote, unusually specific for a blog "BYD will also need to modify the Seagull to comply with stricter European crash test regulations, further increasing production costs." https://www.jurnileasing.co.uk/blog/byd-seagull-everything-you-need-to-know

And this "BYD would have to modify its cars to meet U.S. safety standards, which are more stringent than in China. Woychowski says Caresoft hasn’t done crash tests, but he estimated that would add a couple thousand dollars to the cost." https://apnews.com/article/china-byd-auto-seagull-auto-ev-cae20c92432b74e95c234d93ec1df400

I would be wary of estimating the cost of modifying a small car to meet crash, you are fighting Newton all the way.

 

[3DDave]

My vehicle of choice is made by General Electric, though an M113 will do in a pinch.

 

[BrianPetersen]

Fiat 500e is roughly the same size as a BYD Seagull, and does decently in Euro NCAP. https://cdn.euroncap.com/media/66921/euroncap-2021-fiat-500e-datasheet.pdf

Obviously it is not the same car, but it's about the same size and weight (the Fiat is a little smaller), and the Fiat 500e is sold in both EU and NA markets.

At this point, I wouldn't bet against BYD, whether they have to make modifications for the EU market or not.

Bear in mind that a good many US-market cars don't meet EU-market safety standards and would "require modifications". That sentence in itself doesn't really mean much. My Canadian-market 2023 Chevy Bolt lacks turn signal side-repeater lamps, the rear turn signals are the wrong colour and are optically combined with the brake lamps, it doesn't have fog lamps, and it doesn't have a rear fog lamp. It doesn't have "intelligent speed adaptation". I'm sure there's other non-compliances that aren't readily apparent. The predecessor (2021 and before) was sold in Europe, but the 2022-on styling-refresh model (mine) is only sold in US and markets that more-or-less copy US standards (includes Canada) which allowed GM to cheap out in some ways.

 

[ghostdigital]

Not because of politics, but because so few people want them. Numerous policies have been in place for 5-10 years to encourage people to switch, and people just don't want to.

Kalifornia has (had?) a bill on the books to require X% car sales each year to be electric (maybe it was hybrid, but you get the point), with that % going up each year with all cars to be electric by 2035 if I recall correctly. Toyota recently came out and said that this law has to be removed, as no one is buying their hybrids, so to meet the required percentage it destroys their ICE sales as well.

Policy is slowly relaxing to match the rejection by the American consumer.

Search the internet for "electric cars sold yearly" or "Trends in electric cars" and you'll find an increasing demand Y.O.Y. .

Politics in America can be very misleading, respectfully.

 

[dik]

"Not because of politics, but because so few people want them."

Maybe a bit political... Government incentives to purchase are OK as long as the place doesn't have power provided by coal or natural gas. BEVs are likely the transportation of the future.

BEVs are slowly making inroads and in time will likely replace ICEs. They can be less costly to produce. Batteries, range, cost, weight, and fire resistance are improving all the time. Actually ICEs are more prone to fires; it's just political correctness to have BEVs more fire prone.

 

[SwinnyGG]

Norway has 93% of its vehicles as EVs.

Sigh. This statistic is not true, please stop saying it.

93% of passenger cars sold in Norway in 2024 were electric.

The actual share of electric vehicles on the road in Norway is around 28%.

That 93% does not include commercial vehicles, where electric propulsion has all the same adoption difficulties it has everywhere else in the world, and buyers continue buying diesel powered trucks and vans.

That 93% is also the result of VERY heavy incentivization by the Norwegian government; electric vehicles in Norway are exempt from sales tax, VAT (which is like 25% of the cost of a new vehicle there), and annual road use taxes, and are also allowed to use HOV and bus lanes in Oslo, which is very significant.

The government is currently evaluating rolling back some of these incentives in 2025. In particular, in Oslo, allowing EVs to use the bus lanes has created a significant traffic problem.

 

[dik]

The actual share of electric vehicles on the road in Norway is around 28%

My error... this is the update... not 28%. . Diesel and Petrol are 5.6%... do the math.

 

[System Protection]

Are auto registrations annual in Norway?

 

[CWB1]

EV sales stateside have several big issues affecting them atm, so I'd hesitate to make any guesses about the future.

New vehicle sales as a whole have been abysmal for several years now bc the US economy has been lousy with high inflation and continuous mass-layoffs. Many folks have nothing extra to spend and most of those that do are being extremely cautious, not buying new vehicles nvm higher-priced models like EVs. MY25 production is mid-launch atm and dealers are still overflowing with MY23s. Auto industry layoffs are primarily due to crap sales.

Another challenge is simply that pop culture fads/trends changed from loving to hating EVs. A few years ago they were a status symbol, today they're an embarrassment for many. Folks are welcome to conjecture about reasons why, personally I've heard everything from hatred for Elon to massive EV sales for taxis/rideshare and food delivery - a coworker hates driving his in the city bc he's constantly getting hailed by pedestrians.

Many folks have also found they cant benefit financially, or been bitten in the wallet by EVs. Purchase incentives have been cut/eliminated. Many live in homes or neighborhoods that need pricy upgrades to charge at home. Many have found "free" charging at work isnt. Many businesses have lost money to various EV scams like "free" charging stations that arent, tax scams, etc. Its a financial minefield to be polite.