Lets talk about the Stimulus Plan.... 4

[shaunsnoll]

Hi everyone,

please excuse me if this is discussed somewhere else, but i thought this part of the forum would be appropriate

i'm just looking at this ~90B$ in US infra spending over the next 2-3 years from the Obama plan and wondering what you guys take is on how it will impact the US E&C Industry? I have found the members here to be of high quality and intelligence so will be interesting to get your feedback and thoughts.

thanks!

 

[Helicopterjunky]

All you numerical people out there may get a kick out of this article. Not the first time a simplified formula has led to problems.

http://www.wired.com/techbiz/it/magazine/17-03/wp_quant?current

 

[TPL]

Do you think this formula can be adapted to predict the effects of climate change?

 

[jmw]

Nice post.

As Li himself said of his own model: "The most dangerous part is when people believe everything coming out of it."

Li published his work but did not seem to use it himself and cautioned about its improper use. It almost seems as if it was a passing fancy.
Every body is busy saying he is not at fault but really speaking, if you give a loaded gun to an imbecile kid, do you have some responsibility for what then happens?
He seems to have published this and then just sat back and watched.

On the other hand, the AGW computer model came with no health warnings or reservations from its creator.

JMW

http://www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

[davefitz]

I may be a bit cynical, but the economists predict major deflation unless the gov'ts start printing money- to avoid major currency revaluations, all gov'ts must print more money to the same extent.

The politicians now have to find a way to spend all this money withut appearing more piggish than usual- the line at the pork barrel feeding trough will be crowded indeed.

It would be useful to spend it something other than make-work projects that do not contribute to the major changes in infrastructure and lifestyle that will likely be needed 20 yrs down the road. Rebuilding the same old highway bridges might not be the smartest procedure- if in fact mass transit ( commuter) and improved rail ( freight) would be required in a new economy that needs to burn less fuel.

In the US, converting over to a single payer medical insurance industry ( paying for it thru a VAT) , and paying off the new super debt via a (gasp) carbon tax might also be in works.

 

[ivymike]

I also posted this in Petro engineering / other topics, but it's probably suited to a broader audience:

The EPA have apparently received funds from the stimulus plan to help reduce emissions from existing diesels. Through the EPA regions, qualified applicants can get as much as 75% of the cost of a repower (from an older engine to an engine w/current certification) paid by the government. You can also get 100% of the cost of an emissions upgrade kit or aftertreatment retrofit, but they must be on the verified tech. list. Applications must be submitted by about mid-April, according to the website. You also have to be working in conjunction with a government agency or nonprofit (who must submit the application) to qualify. I'm wondering whether anyone in here is planning to take advantage of the opportunity to upgrade existing horsepower and reduce emissions?

http://www.epa.gov/otaq/diesel/grantfund.htm

 

[Dtuck]

That sounds interesting on the diesels. Why does the government have to do everything for us? Some useful facts.

8% of the stimulus money will end up as something useful.
We loaned AIG 30 billion, they just lost 60 billion. They don't even know where it went. The government people in charge don't know where it went. I think I'll try this with my bank tomorrow. Wish me luck.

 

[RossABQ]

As part of the stimulus or some related bill, my city got an additional 26 Million for transit system improvements, including $11 million in buses. The buses are sourced to a Canadian company, so nearly half the money goes to Canada, the rest goes to low-wage earners putting in bus stops and bike trails. Undoubtedly some design house will milk a couple hundred grand for creating drawings for the improvements, and the politicians will get photo ops.

I expect in 5 yrs there will be a cry for increased federal funding to pay for empty buses driving around town, that are not adequately funded by fares.

 

[ivymike]

that might depend on fuel prices.

 

[cranky108]

Buying buses from Canada? How does that help our economy?

However the question sticks in my mind, who pays for the up keep on these buses? Probally you with higher taxes.

Seems to me we should consiter projects that don't have a major up keep impact, or will pay for there future up keep.

Maybe something like sidewalks.

 

[KENAT]

While it seems a bit early to tell, my employer may actually benefit from some of the stimulus spending on research. So that's nice.

KENAT,

Have you reminded yourself of faq731-376 recently, or taken a look at posting policies:

http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

What is Engineering anyway: faq1088-1484

 

[lovethecold]

rapt -
Unfortunately for the USA, during the good times of the last 20 years there has basically been deficit spending (except for the 2 years mentioned above) in both the good and bad years along with major underspending in some important areas. Thus, when the really bad years come along, like now, the country is basically bankrupt before you start the real decifit spending. And it is not just the government, companies like GM etc have done exactly the same. They were losing money in a boom market, so now they have no chance. I hope you all have deep pocketrs to pay it all back beacuse the brilliant individuals who made fortunes out of it all will not be donating it back!

I feel sorry for you, but you voted for them (50.1% of you anyway), even though their policies are effecting (and stuffing) the whole world.

I completely agree. Unfortunately both Republicans and Democrats are to blame. Neither can really be trusted. I don't know anyone who is upset at what is going on AND willing to vote for a third party. Most just shrug their shoulders and go 'oh well, what can I do?' We live in a country where we can vote these morons out if people would take a stand and take a chance. I expect we will be akin to marxist Rrussia in not too many years if this spending and money printing continues.

I completely disagree with the stimulus package. We will have to pay for it eventually, then where will we be?


There are a number of site you can go to to get another perspective and argument to all this spending and bigger government craze. Cato.org, reason.com and reason.org are my favorites.

 

[ctopher]

Funny....

Chris
SolidWorks/PDMWorks 08 3.1
AutoCAD 08; CATIA V5
ctopher's home (updated Aug 5, 2008)
ctopher's blog
SolidWorks Legion

 

[TheTick]

I feel sorry for you, but you voted for them (50.1% of you anyway), even though their policies are effecting (and stuffing) the whole world.

Don't sleep another night believeing this is solely a U.S. misadventure. The collapse is truly an international effort.

European banks were leveraged even higher than U.S. banks. British banks were the first to fail. Italy, Austria, and Switzerland speculated heavily in eastern European mortgages and lost. Likewise for speculators in consumer credit in the Balkans. Britain and Spain had housing booms that busted.

German and Canadian banks were most prudent and their economies are suffering the least. This will likely translate into a shift in power toward Germany, which makes France nervous enough to rejoin NATO.

 

[lovethecold]

German and Canadian banks were most prudent and their economies are suffering the least. This will likely translate into a shift in power toward Germany, which makes France nervous enough to rejoin NATO.

I respectfully disagree. Germany and Canada may have done better than the US and the rest of Europe, but I believe the shift in power will go east to China, possibly even Australia. I say this because, as I understand it, China and Australia have the best balance sheets in the world. Also, if China continues to Liberlize its economy (the opposite of what the US is doing) and begins to look inward, they will become an economic monster. The US and most of the rest of the world will only be able stand on the sidelines and look upon them with envy (as most of the world used to envy American wealth).

 

[ctopher]

China maybe the powerhouse for a short time, until most die of lung cancer or other disease.

Chris
SolidWorks/PDMWorks 08 3.1
AutoCAD 08; CATIA V5
ctopher's home (updated Aug 5, 2008)
ctopher's blog
SolidWorks Legion

 

[jmw]

Except that what I hear is that China's economy is pretty much on a tightrope at the moment.... this I commented on in another thread some time ago but the Chinese exposure is being commented on more and more recently....

JMW

http://www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

[jmw]

What worries me is that the UK's Government was dumb enough to bail out the Royal Bank of Scotland and then was surprised to find itself doing the "deer in the headlights" thing when the s**t hit the fan over the Chief executive's pension and also about all the bonuses being paid (to everyone from Northern Rock forwards) out of taxpayers money.... OK, dumb and even maybe a bit unexpected.

But what excuse does Obama's government have, witnessing what happened in the UK, finding itself in the exact same situation with regards AIG and the bonuses being paid for out of tax payers money.

You might argue that they were committed before they discovered the UK outcome but it is not encouraging that these governments both make the same simple errors and are expected to solve the worlds economic problems.



JMW

http://www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

[rapt]

TheTick,

I was not talking about bank problems, I was talking about the US government and the US fiancial situation. The US government simply has not been collecting enough taxes to pay its expenses for the last 20 years or more to keep the public books even or in credit over the length of the financial cycle. And neither have many major companies such as vehicle manufacturers. Now that the governemnt needs to spend money to prop up the country it is already bankrupt and getting close to insolvent. If they had to deal throuigh the same lenders as us, they would have been closed down long ago. In the long term this has to result in the end of US financial dominance and I doubt that the US Peso will be wort what it is today when it is all sorted out.

Regarding the European and other banks etc, yes some are in trouble but they were simply following the lead of the US banking and investing community and got caught out. But I do not think they invented the problem, just thought they saw a way to get rich quick following the lead.

RE China, yes, I do think they will end up being the financial centre. I do not think Australia will have much chance of getting quite that powerful, with our 22 million population and no industry. Eventually we will be simply a big hole in the ground after we have exported the whole place to China.

 

[lovethecold]

In reply to some of the above comments in regards to China. China is no doubt feeling some of the pain the rest of the world is going through but, as a net creditor nation they will be in the drivers seat financially. There is a local radio station with a man who does business in China. He commented that at the national level and what the rest of the world sees it would seem that China maintains strict central control. What he has found is that due to its size, the provinces actually are very free to do business on their terms without influence from Beijing. It is his contention that it is easier and far less red tape to open up shop in most of China than the US. And now with China moving to establish property rights to its citizens, that will empower more folks and enrich all levels of its citizenry. It may take decades, but if China continues the path it is on, there is no way the present US beuracracy and BS will be able to keep up. We will go the way of England and so many other former powers.

As to our rediculous spending over the last 20 years. Yes, that has only empowered our current situation and BOTH parties are to blame. Which is why I hope that people would start voting for third party candidates. This mess can be traced back to the 70's and Carter, and some might even argue to the early part of the last century (ca 1907).

 

[TheTick]

I didn't say Germany would become huge, only that they would rise. They are certainly in a position to do so. With economic power will come greater influence.

China, meanwhile, is making definite moves toward expanding their military sphere of influence. It may take a generation or two (a blink of an eye on China's timeline), but they are working on a navy capable of extended power projection.

Australia lacks the population, location, and nationial will to be more than a regional power.