This is a Strength of Materials / Mechanics of Materials problem, and a tricky one at that. The thin-walled pipe or thin-walled cylinder hoop stress calculations aren't valid because the area in question is, first of all, at the end of the cylinder, and second, too short. The expansion of the material outside the o-ring groove is going to be resisted by the shearing effect at the cross-section at the base of the groove. Maybe if you can find equations for the expansion of a ring, you can use that as a worst-case since the shearing resistance will prevent it from actually being that much.
What kind of pressure are you talking about?
Like gerhardl said, look at other applications. Hydraulic fittings maybe. With valves and pipe fittings, you generally have so much extra material that you're not concerned with being too thin outside the o-ring. Everything I can think of where I've seen such an arrangement, the end of the "pipe" has been inside a larger cap or socket, and thus contained on its OD.