zdas04
Mechanical
- Jun 25, 2002
- 10,274
In spite of frequent assertions on eng-tips.com that "there ain't no pause, damnit", Gerald Meehl and company found that dang, there really is a pause, and if you take 262 models, tweak them for the current state of the art in modeling, input 1990 data as initial conditions, then by god 10 of the models show the hiatus clearly. The big problem in modeling is "how do you know which 10 to select while rejecting the 96.2% of the models that didn't?" when you don't have the answer book in advance? Meehl posed the question
You can get the full text for $32 at Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming. The opening paragraph is pretty telling
David Simpson, PE
MuleShoe Engineering
In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual. —Galileo Galilei, Italian Physicist
. That is kind of like saying "if we had today's tools we could have predicted and prevented..." The stock market crash? The Challenger Disaster? The plane crashes on 9/11?" Where the heck does it stop?If we could be transported back to the 1990s with this new decadal prediction capability, a set of current models, and a modern-day supercomputer, could we simulate the hiatus?
You can get the full text for $32 at Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming. The opening paragraph is pretty telling
The slowdown in the rate of global warming in the early 2000s is not evident in the multi-model ensemble average of traditional climate change projection simulations1. However, a number of individual ensemble members from that set of models successfully simulate the early-2000s hiatus when naturally-occurring climate variability involving the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) coincided, by chance, with the observed negative phase of the IPO that contributed to the early-2000s hiatus. If the recent methodology of initialized decadal climate prediction could have been applied in the mid-1990s using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-models, both the negative phase of the IPO in the early 2000s as well as the hiatus could have been simulated, with the multi-model average performing better than most of the individual models. The loss of predictive skill for six initial years before the mid-1990s points to the need for consistent hindcast skill to establish reliability of an operational decadal climate prediction system
David Simpson, PE
MuleShoe Engineering
In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual. —Galileo Galilei, Italian Physicist