Price going way up.

[itsmoked]

BEWARE IF YOU ARE QUOTING ANY JOBS WITH WIRE!!

I am working on a control panel and went out to buy some regular THWN. I got 130ft of 14AWG. It cost me $37.

I walked out the door and then it dawned on me. This little coil of wire cost me THIRTY SEVEN DOLLARS!!!

This wire was costing me 27.5 cents per foot.

Subsequently (3 weeks later)I went to OSH (local large hardware chain) to get 15 feet of green THWN 14AWG (ground) wire. It was 35 cents a foot!! The guy said, "Oh yeah the price has gone waaaay up! We were told to mark it up from 9 cents a foot to 22 cents a foot and as soon as we were done we were told to mark it up again to 35 cents."

This represents 380% increase in the cost of a fundamental electrical component. The panel I built used about 700 feet of wire. I ordered all of my wire just before this price jam started. I shudder to think what a few weeks might have cost me.

Now can somebody explain why this absurd price hike is happening and will it stay this high?

Keith Cress
Flamin Systems, Inc.-

http://www.flaminsystems.com

 

[Skogsgurra]

The thre C:s China, Copper, Cost.

Gunnar Englund

http://www.gke.org

 

[RalphChristie]

Well, the copper price almost quadruplicated from round-about $2000/ton in 2003 to over $8000/ton in 2006. Major factors can be the fuel price, the copper demand and difficult mining methods to obtain the ore. A lot of closed mines (ghost-mines and towns) reopened even again, due to the higher prices.


But it seems to be a bit overdone:

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=atAaLQK5.t8E&refer=news_index

[red]Failure seldom stops us, it is the fear for failure that stops us - Jack Lemmon[/red]

Make the best use of Eng-Tips.com
Read the Site Policies at FAQ731-376

 

[electricpete]

Other things that are going go up:
motors
copper theft

=====================================
Eng-tips forums: The best place on the web for engineering discussions.

 

[RalphChristie]

Not sure if the link provided in my first post is correct.
Here is the report:

June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Copper futures in London fell, staging their biggest three-day decline since October 2004, on concern a rally that drove the metal to a record last month was overdone. Prices in China also tumbled.

Copper has dropped about 20 percent from its all-time peak, and other commodities including gold, silver and zinc have declined, on concern that rising interest rates will slow global economic growth. Central banks from Asia to Europe boosted interest rates last week in a bid to curb inflation.

``Consumption has suffered because buyers are wary of price volatility,'' said Shen Haihua, Vice President of Maike Futures Co. by phone from Shanghai today. ``Consumers aren't buying because they hope prices will fall further.''

Copper for delivery in three months on the LME dropped as much as $340, or 4.7 percent, to $6,880 a ton today. Metal for delivery in August in Shanghai fell as much as 3,340 yuan, or 5 percent, to 63,280 yuan ($7,900) a ton. The contract has fallen about a quarter since reaching a record on May 15.

``Investment funds have probably withdrawn money from commodities,'' said Yuan Fang, a trader at Shanghai Dongya Futures Co., by phone. ``The rally was overdone. Shanghai prices fell more aggressively than London after stockpiles rose.''

Copper inventories in Shanghai rose about 11 percent last week to their highest since Feb. 23. Stockpiles in exchange warehouses in London, New York and Shanghai jumped 3 percent to 172,503 tons as of June 9 from June 1, Bloomberg figures show.

Investment Funds

Speculators have been attracted to copper by forecasts that global demand will outstrip supply this year. Investment funds have increased their holdings of commodities to gain greater returns than those available from stocks and bonds.

HSBC Holdings Plc estimated last month that about $100 billion will be invested in commodity indexes by the end of 2006, compared with $10 billion at the end of 2003.

Five out of eight traders, analysts and investors surveyed by Bloomberg News on June 8 and 9 said copper will drop on the London Metal Exchange this week. Three forecast a rise.

``A 50 percent decline in price would still leave copper at the previous all-time high,'' David Threlkeld, president of Resolved Inc., a copper trading company in Scottsdale, Arizona, said in the Bloomberg News survey.

Hedge Funds

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-short position in New York copper futures in the week ended June 6, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on June 9.

Speculative short positions, or bets prices will fall, outnumbered long positions by 7,302 contracts on Comex, the Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report. Net-short positions rose by 930 contracts, or 15 percent, from a week earlier.

Each Friday the CFTC publishes aggregate numbers for long and short positions for speculators such as hedge funds and institutional investors, as well as commercial companies that buy or sell futures to protect against price moves.


[red]Failure seldom stops us, it is the fear for failure that stops us - Jack Lemmon[/red]

Make the best use of Eng-Tips.com
Read the Site Policies at FAQ731-376

 

[SphincterBoy]

The cost our utility transformers increased as well. We were told manufacturers would not bid a firm bid price anymore, but only temporary prices with escalation clauses, due to the increasing cost of copper.

 

[jraef]

Anyone else remember the days of the "Silver Surcharges" back in the late 70's? Everything with silver in it, i.e. motor starters, relays, plated bus bar etc. came with a surcharge tacked on based on the silver content. This was the result of the Hunt Brothers (more Texans screwing with the world economy) were trying to corner the market on silver and ran the prices through the roof. Looks like we may be headed that way again, but there are a LOT more things with copper in them!

An electrical contractor friend of mine now quotes all of his projects with wire and transformers separated out. He then tells the buyers that those prices are good for only the remainder of the day when he turns the price in to them. If they want a firm price, he triples it (to get the point across that they can't fool around and wait).

Eng-Tips: Help for your job, not for your homework Read faq731-376

 

[IRstuff]

Copper prices have been wending their way upward for 30 yrs now. That's why US pennies contain almost no copper. Recently, demand in other countries, particularly China have substantially increased.

Our office move was delayed for 6 months, waiting for galvanized 2x4s, since all the supply got sucked up by China in the 2004-2005 time frame.

TTFN

 

[dpc]

The price has been dropping pretty dramatically in the past few days. Maybe things are returning to whatever passes for "normal" these days.

I wouldn't count on those old mines re-opening just yet...

 

[itsmoked]

Hi dpc,

I was wondering if the price would drop. I was told that electrical contractors had lined up at local places to get wire for previously quoted jobs. They would be storing it in their back yards, under their beds, etc., just so they wouldn't be ruined when it came to actually doing the work.

My assumption is that the price goes up. People notice and react. There is a sudden run on wire causing what I saw; price hike(larger than expected but material driven), followed by another immediate one(caused by a 'run' on wire). I would now expect a drop back near the original increase.

We can hope...

Keith Cress
Flamin Systems, Inc.-

http://www.flaminsystems.com

 

[dpc]

The futures prices are still over $3/lb - maybe it will be like the oil price jumps - they come back down, but never quite down to where the price was before.

 

[bigbillnky]

Just a few weeks ago, a man was electrocuted in my home town while trying to save his 11 or 12 year old son. Turns out the son was using wire cutters to remove/steal wire from a school that had been closed several years ago. When the young man started receiving a shock, his father grapped him and pulled him away from the panel. The current passed thru the son(who did survive) and killed the dad. The sad part was the man's mother was at the scene, also helping to steal copper. I guess it WAS a family affair!

Bigbillnky,C.E.F.....(Chief Electrical Flunky)