Probabilistic Risk Analysis - Is it a good opportunity? 1

[digitalcaptive]

Hi,

I have an opportunity to change positions within my company and join a group that does PRA in the Nuclear industry. Currently, I am a "Control Systems" engineer who works on HMIs and PLCs for robotic tools used in repair and refurbishment work of reactors.

I am having a hard time determining if this is the right move. Although, I have made very good money due to working lots of OT in the field (but I am not sure if that will continue), I have not learned very much as I had previous experience as an CS integrator and management has not been very stable. I have been at this job for a year, and within that time span my group merged with another one, and I lost my initial director, manager, and supervisor. Also the long hours have been getting to me and the travel, I barely have a life.

But I don't know much about PRA and its future prospects. I don't think it has much scope outside of the nuclear industry (does anyone else use it? chemical plants maybe? whereas my current skill set is pretty industry generic). Do you think this is or will be a useful/valuable skill to have?

It'd be great if someone could provide me a lil' advice or input. Also, I must add that I'm still fairly young, just 6 years out of school and this would be my fourth job switch, does that look bad even thought I left each time on my own terms for what I considered were better opportunities?

Thanks,
dc

 

[tygerdawg]

I only spent ~1.5 years in nuclear industry a long time ago and ran screaming in the opposite direction. But I've never heard of "PRA". I suppose it has its merits. But you should hit the job sites and see if anybody is hiring for that knowledge or experience.

and I lost my initial director, manager, and supervisor

Doesn't anyone else hear those klaxon horns going off, or is it just me?

TygerDawg
Blue Technik LLC
Virtuoso Robotics Engineering

http://www.bluetechnik.com

 

[controlnovice]

Can't help with the PRA position or the nuclear industry, but the position/work sound similar to Process Hazard Analysis or Risk Analysis in the Petrochemical Industry (such as PHA, SIS analysis, ILP analysis, etc). So, if you take the position, the analysis will be similar to what you may find in other industries. The skill would be useful elsewhere.

Will you also be designing/installing controls or just PRA?

My guess is that the position will be desk riding and a LOT of paperwork, especially since it's in the nuclear industry. Document. Document. Document.





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[ivymike]

PRA is used in some automotive-related companies, and probably in aerospace.

There are companies using statistical models to do all manner of things who would probably look favorably on a well-crafted resume including PRA experience.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/01/18/technology/sas_best_companies.fortune/

SAS (pronounced sass) has been on Fortune's list of Best Companies to Work For every one of the 13 years we've been keeping score.

These days, SAS says, it's used by 79% of the companies in the Fortune 500, across a range of industries, to mine morsels of wisdom from seemingly limitless piles of data the companies collect.

 

[KENAT]

Well, not sure about the term PRA but I used to do some risk analysis work in Aerospace/Defense estimating probabilites of things happening, impact of it happening on cost/performance/schedule and then calculat out scores to find the highest risk etc.

The little training (one day seminar) I got on it was from a guy with a background in the oil industry as I recall.

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[IRstuff]

I'd assume that PRA is similar to hazards and safety analysis in defense contracts. The gist of it would seem to be identifying potential risks and assigning probabilities to determine which ones demand remediation.

The only caveat is that it's most likely a pure office job, with lots of paper shuffling and calculations.

TTFN

FAQ731-376

 

[digitalcaptive]

Thanks everyone for your responses. From what I've read PRA in the Nuclear industry in my jurisdiction is used extensively in the licensing process. There appears to be a demand for it, which could grow if new plants are built or older plants are refurbished.

I know it'll be a huge change from site work because it'll be very conceptual and I'll be stuck in the office. I can see the downside of that but after a year of spending 75% of my time away from home (but I could see in a year, I'd miss being on the road, particularly the per diems, lol)

"Doesn't anyone else hear those klaxon horns going off, or is it just me?"

I dunno. It's hard to explain but basically we had two groups doing the same work in the organization in isolationbut the other group's leadership had more power/clout, so when it was decided these groups merge, they took over and the other guys left to do their own thing (oddly enough with a supplier)

It's a weird world/industry i am in and that's another reason why it's really hard for me to make a decision. I can't accurately assess the pros and cons, because there's so much uncertainty.

I am not complaining, it's a great situation ... it just causes a lot of anxiety!

 

[IRstuff]

I guess one major factor is really what do you want to be when you grow up? You've apparently a degree in EE, but your not doing design? Is that the way you want it to stay? If so, that's OK; I've not done anything in my EE degree in over 20 yrs.

Field work and travel is great when you're young and single, with no ties or family. Personally, I've not been one to get that much out of the travel itself, except for the too brief times when I was off work and could go sightseeing. Otherwise, spending my nights in the germic cesspools that are today's hotels wouldn't get me going anywhere.

TTFN

FAQ731-376

 

[HamishMcTavish]

Hi Digitalcaptive,

Don't know much about what happens in the states but PRA / PSA in the UK is a MUCH sought after skill.

Sure it's mostly theoretical and desk based but it is applicable in the nuclear, aerospace and chemical process industries. A quick Google search turned up a couple of background type papers you could read:

http://www.tudelft.nl/live/binaries/a4751543-3c3e-4787-b3c2-ae34f717f351/doc/citatie68.pdf

http://www.nuce.boun.edu.tr/psaover.html

With a control systems background you could write your own ticket over here! The two contenders for new build in the UK (EDF and Westinghouse) have both received some criticism from regulators for their treatement of control systems in their designs.

All the best, HM

No more things should be presumed to exist than are absolutely necessary - William of Occam

 

[TheTick]

Sounds like "nuclear actuary".

 

[digitalcaptive]

Thanks Hamish, I am actually in Canada. I am leaning towards taking the new position, as I hope it will give me a better understanding of the plant. I wonder if it actually will though? And if I go back into the I&C world, I'll have increased my value. I don't know though. I know I am going to miss the travel but my mind-body needs a break, I just hope that it's not too boring - but it's something new, so it shouldn't be.

I have no idea what I want to be when I grow up, but I think at least trying something new will give me a better understanding of that.

Thanks,
dc

 

[IRstuff]

One thing that's kind of nice is that most risk valuations, so long as they are within reasonable bounds, are difficult to assail, i.e., is the risk 1 in a billion or 1 in 10 billion?

TTFN

FAQ731-376

 

[HamishMcTavish]

IRStuff is kind of right, the nuclear industry has been forced down the route of showing risk of death as less than 1 in 1 million (that's deemed notionally acceptable by most governements) but the lower you can push the numbers the better it is received. The difficulty is that some numbers become meaningless e.g. can you really justify human error probabilities of below 10E-4 per year?

The worst situation is that you usually have to do deterministic analyses (i.e. assume everything fails but show you have sufficient barriers with conservative probabilities of failure on demand) as well as psa. At least with PSA you can use "best estimate" figures which align more with the mindset of engineering!

Good luck digitalcaptive, HM

No more things should be presumed to exist than are absolutely necessary - William of Occam

 

[digitalcaptive]

Hamish,

I was curious about what you thought about the merits of PSA with respect to gaining experience that could be relevant down the road for work in operations, given your background in Nuclear Safety (according to your profile)?

I am just hoping this experience will not pigeon-hole me but will broaden my horizons and make me more valuable down the road in the Nuke industry.

Thank you

 

[digitalcaptive]

On another site, I asked the same question, and the person's response was that PSA will bore me to tears and I will learn absolutely nothing. :| Now I am having second thoughts.

 

[KENAT]

Sorry, you didn't ask if it would be interesting. Just reviewing other peoples ones was deadly boring. Doing my own not much better.

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[IRstuff]

Interest is all relative, so, unfortunately, you'll only know it's interesting if you try it.

Since it's a mathematical analysis task, coupled with explanations of the math, you can be your own judge.

TTFN

FAQ731-376

 

[digitalcaptive]

Well I am not so much concerned about the work being interesting part, as much as I am concerned about learning something of value that can complement my previous experience.

 

[HamishMcTavish]

Hey digital captive,

Not sure whether PSA will give you experience relevant to work in operations - sometimes it can be a bit dry and divorced from reality. What it could give you is an understanding of the "big picture" and what dependencies there are between various systems, although the usefulness will depend on the detail in the models developed.

RE getting pigeon-holed - there is always a danger of that if you go into an area which is short on people (or is perceived as boring!). On the other hand having field experience and then going into an area, which as others have said is basically modelling, could stand you in good stead. PSA models are like anything Garbage In = Garbage Out. Using your practical experience to flesh out the abstract and trying to get the model to represent the reality of what is on site could be a real bonus for your employer.

Unfortunately i think the only way to find out is to give it a go...perhaps you could negotiate a probation period with an exit clause if you really don't get on with it?

All the best, HM

No more things should be presumed to exist than are absolutely necessary - William of Occam