Hi Cmartel,
I would prefer a third gear stage to a belt, for reliability. Your problems will probably not be with the high speed stages, but more likely with the first low speed stage.
If we sort through some of the tradeoffs - carburized and ground, nitrided, through hardened, for gear steel, and make a reasonable selection. Then we can make some initial estimates. Each gear shop will have their preferred way of making gears, and sizes and pricing will vary widely.
Some rough hand calcs indicate - and I apologize for English units, but I am old and hard to train - the first stage might be something like 2 diametral pitch, with 20 pinion teeth and 71 gear teeth. This gives a pinion pitch diameter of 10 inches, and gear pitch diameter of 35.5 inches. The face width is about 8 inches, so L/D ratio of the pinion is not exceeded. The pitch line velocity of the low speed mesh is approximately only 100 feet per minute. From AGMA paper P219.16 by Hans Winter, slow speed wear often occurs below .5 m/s, or just about the speed of this mesh. So low oil film thickness, and potentially wear, will be issues. Interestingly, according to this paper, for through hardened steel gears, the slow speed gears will polish themselves, and it made no difference in ultimate wear whether the gears were used as hobbed, or hobbed and ground. If the gears are case hardened, superfinishing may be beneficial in improving the ratio of oil film thickness to surface finish.
With a first stage of 100 fpm, a second stage of 360 fpm, a third stage of 1300 fpm and a fourth (perhaps) stage of 4600 fpm - the lubrication of the fourth stage, if a gear, and not a belt, requires jet lubrication. The others could be splash lubrication.
So lets assume the three stages you plan, with splash lubrication and a wet sump. The last key variables are the oil viscosity and the bearings. The DN (bore diameter times rpm) of the bearings on the first stage is extremely low meaning low oil film thickness. My preference would be grease packed and preloaded, sealed tapered roller bearings outside the sump, for the first stage. So now we will select the oil based on requirements of the slow speed first stage mesh. So we will assume an AGMA EP industrial oil.
From the MAAG Gear Book, they say most losses at a gear pitch line velocity of less than 100 m/s will be in the bearings. "The total losses in single-stage gears with parallel offfet axes and friction journals are 0.8 to 2.2%, depending on the operating concitions; 2-stage low speed heavy duty planetary gear suffer a total loss of about 1%". My belief is that the rolling element bearings would reduce loss compared to low speed journal bearings, but I have not investigated this.
MAAG has two charts in their book published in 1990, showing efficiency at part power. Their test was at 146 m/s. Much higher than what you have. Fig. 3.20, page 202, shows efficiency of this single mesh gearbox at about 92% at 30% Torque. Their plot is a function of torque, not power. It looks like it is 99% efficient at 100% torque.
Next they have a Fig 3.22 on page 204, for a planetary gearset. At 30% power, it is 96% efficient, again approaching 99% at 100% power. This plot is efficiency vs. power, not torque. Speeds were 122 rpm input, 400 rpm output.
Because you have lower pitch line velocity, my guess is your first stage mesh and bearings will have require thicker oil, and have lower efficiency.
So at 30% torque, lets assume for a first guess, the first stage is 85% efficient, and the subsequent stages are 90% efficient. Then you have .85x.90x.90, or 69% overall efficiency. If you used two planetary stages at 6:1 ratio (could use a common ring gear, same part number sun and planet gears) you would have perhaps .90x.96, or 86%. Key issue appears to be the bearings.
One of the primary industry trends has been for manufacturers to produce a standard line of geardrives, as this is low cost and quick delivery. Some of the large industrial warehouses, such as Kaman and National Industrial? stock gearboxes. It might be worth looking at what they have in stock .