The future of the combustion engine-OP ED 1

[BigTank]

I've always been in love with the combustion engine, as probably most of the men and women in this forum (maybe even on the planet). I'm a BSME with an interest in returning for an MS, but unsure of the focus.

A few years back I called an old professor asking if he had any upcoming open opportunities in his field of research (the study of combustion and mechanics and how they related to the combustion engine in particular). He told me that indeed his research assistant was finishing his degree the end of that particular semester, but his funding was cut such that he wasn't going to be able to continue the following year with another assistanceship. I don't know what happened after that.

Where do you all feel the industry is going in regards to the combustion engine as a consumer power source? Is there any REAL value in hybrid or electric technology vs. combustion engine design mindful of efficiency (both fuel and power delivery in combination). Technology like catalysts, fuel injection, computer-controlled throttle, valve/cam and ignition timing, etc. all seem to have made leaps and bounds in efficient power generation over the past 20 years. Lately the improvements have been particularly amazing...a mid-sized SUV that can get 30+ mpg highway?! Some of power of modern V-6 engines?! The reliability of turbo and supercharged engines?! Wow!

I would love to be in this arena, but is there a future?

--------------------------------
Fitter, happier, more productive

 

[evelrod]

50% ? I would put money on closer to 75% ! Perhaps more?

Twenty years is not all that long.

No bullet trains, no hover cars. No mass move to EV's except in major metro areas, absent any BIG breakthrough in technology...I mean a breakthrough NOW!

Twenty years is not all that long.

Rod

 

[SomptingGuy]

I was reading a report the other day about future trends in the auto business. The subject of EVs was touched upon. One comment went something like:

OEMs feel obliged to develop EVs, because their customers seem to think they want them.


- Steve

 

[globi5]

Since IC engines also run on methane and ammonia and since there doesn't seem to be shortage of natural gas, gasified coal/wood, biogas or ammonia anytime soon, it's doubtful IC engines will disappear anytime soon.

http://www.ammoniafuelnetwork.org/

Also, (besides being necessary in trucks, tractors and commercial ships), reciprocating engines have become increasingly popular in the power market:

http://www.dieselgasturbine.com/pdf/power_2008.pdf

As opposed to large power plants they are not only more flexible, they can also sell their heat and can reach a combined efficiency of over 90%:

http://www.cat.com/cda/files/698811/7/CPGS_Bramming.pdf

 

[YvesLLewelyn]

I can see electric cars possibly matching IC cars in power, endurance, weight etc. etc. because with modern lipo batteries they already match (or even surpass) the performance of the IC types in the model world - planes, helicopters, cars etc.
However I can't see them ever being really practical because of the recharge time - I think people want to be able to refuel/recharge once a week in 5 or 10 minutes - not 6 to 8 hours every day. It is also hard to imagine a power supply grid capable of recharging every vehicle once a week in 5 or 10 minutes.
I think the IC engine (in some form) is here to stay for a long time yet.

 

[globi5]

Well, no cell phone charges in 5 minutes and yet people use them anyway without exchanging batteries.

 

[evelrod]

It's a tad different to "run out of juice" on a cell phone and a automobile half way between Palm Springs and LA, is it not?

What I meant when I posted the part about needing tech advance tomorrow (if not sooner?), is the need for some affordable power source, batt, fuel cell, whatever, that can power up the EV in a moderate time and provide a range of several hundred miles. Out here in the west, that can mean at least 400+ miles. As it stands, that is just not possible and, even if it were, even if the technology to build a power source capable of such mileage were available today, it would be decades before it could become "mainstream".

The IC engine, in some form, will be with us for much longer than just 20 years (for me, 20 years ago was like last week!!!), probably at least the next 100.

Rod

 

[drwebb]

"Twenty years is not all that long.
. . .
Twenty years is not all that long."

Well that gets me thinking- 1990 we already had EFI and ECUs pretty much standard. Maybe electronic transmission control starting to surface? Anyway, lots of refinement since then but maybe as Rod argues not much 'paradigm shifting' going on. But jump back to '70 in the pre oil crisis/tetraethyl lead days and autos start looking considerably more 'primitive' in terms of both design and overall performance. Maybe it depends which 20 years one is talking about?

 

[andyv8]

Vehicle LiIon batteries (currently) 100-150Wh/Kg,
Gasoline ~12,000Wh/Kg.
It's going to take a lot of batteries to get a 400mile range....

 

[globi5]

evelrod,
of course it is and that's why plug-in hybrids have an range-extending IC-engine and that's why EVs will mostly be used on short commutes.
What I was trying to say: If these vehicles won't sell, it's not because people are too lazy to plug them in overnight...

 

[dgallup]

Not to mention the cost of Li Ion batteries. They need to come down by a factor of 4 which is highly unlikely.

 

[andyv8]

And the volume of batteries required:

Gasoline ~9,100Wh/L
LiIon ~320-250Wh/L

And the extra weight/volume of batteries pushes up the vehicle size, which reduces the range etc etc.

 

[L4189]

I'd put my money on Exxon-Mobil's bid to develop designer fuels (gasoline, diesel, jet A, etc) from algae. You can run your 57 Chevy on it,and your 31 Packard,and any Prius as well.

 

[evelrod]

Watched "60 minutes" last night (during the ENDLESS commercials on NBC's coverage (?) of the Olympics).
Even if this power cell technology comes through,
even if it is totally as depicted,
even if the car companies and, of course, Exxon/etc., can come to agreement,
even then it will take decades to perfect and longer to replace the ICE!

Gave up on all the crap on NBC and watched the new Star Trek again...love the part with the Vette...

Rod

 

[patdaly]

Anyone want one of those EV's here where the temperature drops below 0?

Kind of like those who think Mass Transit is the answer......... Will work splendidly for part of the country, but what about the rest of us?

 

[boonebucker]

One major problem with the EV is the cost of what substitutes for the the long cord. The 18650's cost is close to bottom. Compare the cost today with what it was in 2000. Check out 5.3 to begin.