rather than looking at the ideal case of a steady acceleration and setting the water surface to the lip of the cup (and yes we haven't solved the volume of a cone cut by an inclined plane ... maybe do it in CAD ?) ...
I think the critical case was identified by 3DDave ... when does the acceleration vector become unstable ... move beyond the footprint of the cup. If we have an initial water level of 124mm then the CG height is roughly 62mm, and the base radius is 25mm. so an acceleration of 25/62, approx .5g, would be close to tip over the cup. Yes, I know it'll be more than that as we need the contact pressure at the other side of the cup to go to zero (from the static pressure). But this seems to be much lower than the estimates of the water surface (which seem to be about 1g).
another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?