BEV adoption rates and factors that enhance or detract 2

[Brian Malone]

The thread asking about layoffs in the automotive industry has taken a wide swing away from the OP's question but the data provided by many of the posts is intriguing and interesting. Certainly, some of the data is statistical interpretation and that can sway the conversation - what's the saying about statistics? Stats are like bikinis: What is shown can be very interesting - but what is hidden is crucial . . .

SwinnyGG, GregLocock, Littleinch, lucky-guesser have all put forth compelling data and analysis that show the original data posted by dik was not a complete story. It looks like Norway has some level of BEV adoption but it is not a run away overtaking of their auto market by BEVs.

China is leading the world in BEV adaoption, China also leads the world in electricity production. Could their BEV adoption rate be driven by the population is using what works best for the resource available (though 5/8 of China's electricity is from coal, they are working on other sources). Is it government incentives? Is it government mandates? Norway has relatively small population and derives 6/7 of its electricity from hydro power. Does this affect national adoption?

List of countries by electricity production - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I think the US market is definitely affected by charger availability and vehicle price. Until a BEV does not cost a premium price and charging is not a possible headache for those who cannot afford to have their charger or do not have access to a location for a charger, BEVs are going to be only for a smaller segment of the population that can afford the vehicle and its charging. These are not the 'joe six packs'.

The links posted by GregLocock seemed to be a good place to continue the BEV discussion:

Trends in electric cars – Global EV Outlook 2024 – Analysis - IEA

Global EV Outlook 2024 - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.

www.iea.org

Car Sales by Country | Global Car Sales Data | 1. China 2. US

Top 25 countries for car sales per year. This list of car sales by country includes global rank, number of units sold, and top car brands within each country listed.

www.factorywarrantylist.com

There many other good links in the 'Layoffs post - I just don't know how to bring them over enmasse . . .

 

[GregLocock]

More subsidies from poor people to rich people China's subsidies represent about 10% of EV prices, while South Korea and Germany offer around 16-20%. The US provides roughly 26% through various federal and state programs.

 

[3DDave]

The subsidies are pass-throughs to the makers; to the market it should reflect the expected future sales price of the EVs.

There is difficulty in getting a new technology established in an area where an old one has seen all the learning curve benefits.

Recall that cars didn't take off until the government paved the rutted, mud roads. That trucking didn't take off until the government paved the interstate highways.

Let the wealthy put up with that learning curve; of surviving the early adopter pains of a new technology.

 

[dik]

Most of China's subsidies are to start the industry. That's the reason China has done so well with EVs. They went from 'nothing' to 'everything' in a decade or so. They are the top of the heap when it comes to EVs, and will soon flood the world. Other carmakers will have great difficulty exporting their vehicles.

 

[TugboatEng]

Dik's idols just paid to get the most successful BEV labeled to be the most deadliest BEV.

Tesla Named 'Deadliest Car Brand in America' in Bombshell Car Safety Study

Tesla has been named the "deadliest" car brand after an analysis of vehicle fatality rates determined the brand to have the most fatal crashes per mile.

www.techtimes.com

 

[GregLocock]

Given that all the brands mentioned have reasonable crash ratings it would appear that crash ratings aren't fit for purpose. The government/institutions have set the wrong test criterion for engineers to optimise around.

So I'll give you a clue or two.

That big TV screen in the centre console. That heroin substitute sold by Apple.

 

[dik]

Dik's idols just paid to get the most successful BEV labeled to be the most deadliest BEV.

You sure take things out of context. I'm a fan of BEVs because I think they are the vehicles of the future to help reduce climate change. Musk is only one manufacturer of a group the numbers in the dozens.

The US should eliminate tariffs so that a bunch of 'safer' BEVs can be imported.

 

[GregLocock]

Purchase price UK

On sale now, the 2017 Renault ZOE is priced from £13,995 to £20,645 (with battery leasing and after the Government's plug-in grant). Buy the batteries and the car will cost from £18,995 to £26,245 after the grant
The price of a new 2017 Renault Clio in the UK varied depending on the model variant, with the MSRP ranging from £12,588 to £14,754

I got some numbers on depreciation

We estimated Renault Zoe (EV) models on average depreciate 69 percent in the first three years when new.
We estimated Renault Clio (IC) models on average depreciate 38 percent in the first three years when new.

Insurance

Zoe is insurance group 20-23, Clio is 10 The difference is about UKP 100 a year for a 40 yo driver.

So if you keep your car for three years Clio gives you about UKP 3000 a year to spend on fuel and various disincentive payments. Of course tax wise UK gov is giving the EV a rebate, doesn't charge for a tax disc, and doens't get much tax from electricity. Whereas the lucky Clio owner will be donating vast amounts of tax in various forms. How will UK Gov make up for the revenue deficit if everyone switches to subsidised EVs?

​	Zoe EV​	Clio IC​
Price hi​	26245​	14754​
price low​	18995​	12588​
price ave​	22620​	13671​
depreciation​	69​	38​
cost over 3 years​	15607.8​	5194.98​
insurance delta​	100​	0​