(can of worms alert) Globe hasn't warmed in the last 16 years 76

[beej67]

Worth a read. One significance of the article to me is the 'skeptic' isn't a loon, she's the head of the EAS department at Georgia Tech.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...-report-quietly-released--chart-prove-it.html



Hydrology, Drainage Analysis, Flood Studies, and Complex Stormwater Litigation for Atlanta and the South East -

http://www.campbellcivil.com

 

[Brad1979]

As to CO2 in the air, I've read 5-6 studies in the last couple of years that hypothesize that CO2 is a lagging indicator of climate change...

Current scientific thought is that CO2 both leads and lags. Historically, in the Southern hemisphere, temperature rise led CO2 while in the northern hemisphere CO2 led temperature rise. Here is a paper that discusses it and here is a good summary of that paper.

 

[zdas04]

I read the links Brad, and the "proof" provided by "thousands of Monte Carlo simulations", "Climate Models prove", and hanging the label of "myth" on an alternate hypotheses are simply not compelling. I've been a modeler for 25 years and I know that every model ever written includes the biases of the author. Even when honest people (and there are many honest people on both sides of this discussion) make a concerted effort to remove the biases the biases remain. Models and simulations can point to areas of fruitful investigation, but they simply do not prove anything. The links were interesting reading, but quite dismissive and more than a little condescending.

I followed a link within the second link to the "denier's myths" and got quite offended at the bald statements that were patently untrue, but presented as "facts". If you say "97% of ____ believe ____" 40 or 50 times then the repetition must make it true, right? What a sleazy trick. I stand by the statement in my signature that "Belief is the acceptance of an hypotheses in the absence of data". I don't care what anyone "believes". Computer models and adulterated data cannot prove anything.

David Simpson, PE
MuleShoe Engineering

"Belief" is the acceptance of an hypotheses in the absence of data.
"Prejudice" is having an opinion not supported by the preponderance of the data.
"Knowledge" is only found through the accumulation and analysis of data.
The plural of anecdote is not "data"

 

[Brad1979]

I don't disagree with you about biases, but what biases do you see in that paper? It's one thing to say "I know that every model ever written includes the biases of the author" and quite another thing to show what those biases are and how it affects their conclusion. You can't just say "everybody's biased" and then ignore the science without giving a reason.

 

[cranky108]

Yes everyone comes to the table with bagage, that's a given. However I don't call that a biases, that is intended. Intended biases seems to always be followed by wildly expencive solutions. Or maybe that is just the lack of any other thinking.

I really am not so concerned about CO2 as I don't see the proof. But reducing energy consumption also isen't a bad thing. There is room for solar and wind, but not to the claimed extents. And why are we giving tax breaks to wind and solar. They are economicly viable in nich markets, but maybe not in the general market at this time.

The biggest waste is that we don't use the low grade heat from power plants for anything. No distrect heating, highway deicing, nothing. The only application I have seen where the low grade heat was used was an ethonol plant, where they used it to dry the fermentated grain at the end of the process.

 

[TomDOT]

cranky, at least some of the new natural gas power plants are combined cycle - sure, there is still some low grade heat wasted. It is lessened over the older plants.

Do you envision installing more of the localized steam heat systems as a use for the low-grade waste heat? Most power plants are now pretty far out from city centers, so buildout costs and line losses are sure to be a big concern.

 

[JohnRBaker]

And why are we giving tax breaks to wind and solar.

Why are we still giving tax breaks to oil companies?

John R. Baker, P.E.
Product 'Evangelist'
Product Engineering Software
Siemens PLM Software Inc.
Industry Sector
Cypress, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

To an Engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.

 

[moltenmetal]

If this "debate" is going to be resurrected, it should be in a new thread.

 

[rconnor]

Cranky, there is a lot of evidence that CO2 is harmful, both as a green house gas affecting the energy imbalance and as a contributor to ocean acidification.

Satellite data (NASA’s IRIS satellite and others) show less long wave radiation leaving Earth’s atmosphere, specifically along wavelength bands associated with CO2. This is not theorized through models, it’s empirically demonstrated. Further to this, a nice list of papers demonstrating, through experiments, that CO2’s absorption properties cause it to trap longwave radiation can be found here .

CO2 has also been shown to increase ocean acidification. A study (Hoegh-Guldberg et al, 2007) concluded that the increases in CO2 levels since the pre-industrial period lead to a decrease in coral growth by 40% as carbonate-ion concentrations decrease. This has major effects on marine ecosystems.

 

[rb1957]

there's been So much published on this that you can find "a report" that supports (or refutes) any statement.

IMHO there's too much politics involved with the science, opinions (on both sides of the debate) are too strongly held to allow debate (hence believers and deniers).

again, IMHO, we should be investing more in fusion research as the only viable long term energy solution. for me terrestrial solutions (solar panels, wind mills, etc) aren't a long term solution, given that climates change over time (and so what is a good location now, might not be so good in 100 years). i might give you geothermal, but this is very much a fringe contributor for the global total energy requirements.

but if we can't agree on something as "simple" as gun control, what hope is there ?

Quando Omni Flunkus Moritati

 

[cranky108]

Why would we ever agree on gun control, or even agree to discuss it in this forum. Leave it out of this.

I'm still confused on the oil and gas tax credits. Some of these look like depletion tax credits that are involved in all mining activitity. So why is a tax credit for depletion of a salt well any different than an oil well?

Agreed that some of the waste heat from a combined cycle plant is reused, but the combined cycle plants are some what short lived. So any more heat extraction may not be feasable. And the plant I was talking about above was a combined cycle, except the steam wasen't used for production of electricty.

As I said I can go along with reduction of energy usage, as long as you are reasonable with the alternitives.

 

[cvg]

As I said I can go along with reduction of energy usage, as long as you are reasonable with the alternitives.

so who gets to define what is reasonable and based on what logic? consumers will conserve without any government intervention.

 

[rb1957]

"consumers will conserve without any government intervention" ... nah they won't ... they'll bitch as the price goes up, they might buy into the manufacturers claims about improved efficiency but there are still a lot of "clapped out" cars on the road "'cause that's all i can afford". and there's the delusion of buying a more efficient car and driving at 140km (and expecting to get 40+ mpg) and sprinting to the next red light ...

my opinion is that global warming was created as a "bogie man" to get people to be more "green" 'cause they weren't doing it on their own. and a secondary motive might have been a small group trying to control a large group, to get them to do things their way.

Quando Omni Flunkus Moritati

 

[cvg]

i turn off the lights when i leave the room. carpool when i can. recycle. since i have defined what is reasonable to me, than it follows that I am doing my share. i don't need anybody else telling me how to do it better

 

[GrandpaDave]

Hum... 212 responses... Subject has hit the boiling point?
Well, cvg... Big Fat Al Gore would disagree. You need to be taxed and pay your fair share toward helping the earth cool down.
I believe he's talked to the younger generation telling them they know more than their parents. I'm one of these older parents
that have forgotten more than all these youngsters know.

IMHO, I have no HO. The scientists can spend their days proving this and that, like if a string has one end how do I prove
it has another. But, not to worry the POTUS has NASA working on this subject and Charlie Bolden has been told that NASA has
to prove the case for Global Warming. --- G-pa Dave

 

[zdas04]

John Baker
How often do you have to drop that particular turd in the punchbowl? Tax credits are used by our government to provide incentives for companies to act in (what Congress feels) is the best interest of society. Congress passed what came be be known as the Section 29 Tax Rebate in 1988. This provided tax relief for companies that drilled new unconventional gas wells (that no one knew how to produce). In 1988, unconventional gas made up less than 1% of total U.S. gas production. Today it is approaching 80%. We never would have learned how to produce CBM without the tax incentives to mitigate (very high) risk. Without what we learned in CBM, Shale Gas isn't economic. Without that tax credit we would currently be importing over 80% (instead of under 40%) of our energy and the deficit would be even larger. Was that evil? Was that a bad result? Oil & Gas companies made significant money because they had a way to mitigate the early-days risk.

There have been other tax incentives for the industry that have not worked out as well for the nation as a whole. Mostly those get repealed after it is clear they failed. As a publicly traded company, any Oil & Gas company that does not take full advantage of every tax incentive available is failing in their duty to their shareholders. Congress passed the incentives. To say that they passed them due to unfair pressure from the lobbyists is to say that we have elected a population of greedy, grasping slime to Congress. I have a hard time disagreeing with that, but that is the bucket of slime we have and the rare laws they pass actually are the law of the land. The Democrat party and the President vilifying people who follow the law of the land is unconscionable.

Speaking of tax breaks, did you deduct your mortgage interest from your taxes this year or did you refuse to because tax incentives are evil?

David Simpson, PE
MuleShoe Engineering

"Belief" is the acceptance of an hypotheses in the absence of data.
"Prejudice" is having an opinion not supported by the preponderance of the data.
"Knowledge" is only found through the accumulation and analysis of data.
The plural of anecdote is not "data"

 

[JohnRBaker]

Boy, you sure read an awful lot into my one sentence comment. Must be a touchy subject with you, eh?

BTW, the argument that you made, "Tax credits are used by our government to provide incentives for companies to act in (what Congress feels) is the best interest of society.", why wouldn't this also apply to tax incentives for investments in wind and solar?

John R. Baker, P.E.
Product 'Evangelist'
Product Engineering Software
Siemens PLM Software Inc.
Industry Sector
Cypress, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

To an Engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.

 

[zdas04]

There was a lot in that one sentence and I get really tired of industries like (say) semi-conductors, software, or movie production that take advantage of thousands of loopholes and incentives in the tax code while vilifying the Energy industries for doing the same thing.

The tax credits for wind and solar tend to fall into the category of

There have been other tax incentives for the industry that have not worked out as well for the nation as a whole. Mostly those get repealed after it is clear they failed.

Wind and solar are great retail technologies. I use them on remote wellsites and am happy to access to that technology because the cost of running grid power to these sites is prohibitive and my electrical load is too small to warrant a genset. The problem is that they will never compete with coal, natural gas, or nuclear for supplying grid power on any playing field imaginable. They are just very poor Engineering choices for supplying the grid.

Congress has chosen to forgo a comprehensive energy policy in favor of piecemeal tax incentives/disincentives. It is a choice that our legislators have made and we keep reelecting them, so either the American people don't care or they support this nonsense.

David Simpson, PE
MuleShoe Engineering

"Belief" is the acceptance of an hypotheses in the absence of data.
"Prejudice" is having an opinion not supported by the preponderance of the data.
"Knowledge" is only found through the accumulation and analysis of data.
The plural of anecdote is not "data"

 

[ornerynorsk]

Thank-you Greg! I think "wealth transfer" rather hits the nail on the head. Globalist agenda and all that rot. But then that's another thread

It is better to have enough ideas for some of them to be wrong, than to be always right by having no ideas at all.

 

[cranky108]

Tax credits for wind and solar should have been a declining credit that has an end. I don't doubt there is a nitch that these can fill, but beyond some percentage one the grid these become disruptive to the grid.

Here's a concern, there is no tax incentive to keep these working, so we might end up with a derth of unusable junk. These will either clog the land fills, or will remain as eyesours.
The effect is the tax credit has become a jobs credit, with a pile of junk at the end.

 

[JohnRBaker]

Yet the tax credits for the fossil fuel industry should continue in perpetuity, eh?

John R. Baker, P.E.
Product 'Evangelist'
Product Engineering Software
Siemens PLM Software Inc.
Industry Sector
Cypress, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

To an Engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.