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Can we really blame the slow recovery of the economy on the lack of engineering students... 8

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JohnRBaker

JohnRBaker

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Jun 1, 2006
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Well this should elicit some interesting discussion as the editor of 'Machine Design' magazine seems to think so, or at least he appears to be agreeing with someone who's written a book that includes this claim and supposedly has the data to back it up:




John R. Baker, P.E.
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Oh, so very wrong.

The reason the "recovery" is slow is because this time the toxicity runs much deeper. This isn't a business cycle low such as is responsible for "routine" recession. It's a debt crisis. Takes close to half a generation to fully recover.
 
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Hence the reason I suspected that it might be interesting to see what some of the comments might be.

BTW, I agree that Mr. Teschler does not always appear to be the sharpest tool in the box. I recall that infamous editorial he penned giving full-throated support for resurrecting of the nuclear power industry in America in the March 17th, 2011, issue of 'Machine Design', that landed in our mailboxes the same week that the tsunami hit the Fukushima power plant in Japan:


While one could excuse him for what was very bad timing, since the editorial was obviously written well before the disaster in Japan, he didn't let that stop him from doubling-down in the very next issue:


And when they finally printed 'letters to the editor' on this topic, there was not a single one posted that could have been construed as being negative about the nuclear industry nor critical of the positions taken by Teschler in his two editorials. In fact, he inserted a comment in the 'Letters' section which acknowledged the fact that people were vocal about nuclear power, but that most of the comments received were in favor of nuclear power and that there was no apparent sign that enthusiasm for nuclear power in America, or the rest of the world, had diminished as a result of what had happened in Japan. Of course these letters were published in the May 19th, 2011, issue so there had been very little time for people to have really come to grips with how big a disaster it had been or what the longterm effects might be and which we are still hearing about today, nearly 3 years later.

John R. Baker, P.E.
Product 'Evangelist'
Product Engineering Software
Siemens PLM Software Inc.
Industry Sector
Cypress, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

To an Engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.
 
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OMG.

It's a 6th grade book report.

Quote a few things from a book.

Read Wikipedia article about the author.

Add an original "insight".

And this is the guy who is responsible for deciding what articles get published in Machine Design.
 
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Any one can make up stuff, and attempt to make people believe it.

Get real, if there were truly a shortage of engineers, that wages would rise (so states most economic books). Wages are not going up, except to match inflation.

You dumb down the schools you get dumb workers. If you want smarter workers, then pay for smarter workers.

All things consitered, I am as for sale to the highest bidder.
 
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My own opinion is that it has a lot more to do with the kleptocracy that exists in the US economy than anything going on in college.

Regards,

Mike
 
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The "engineering shortage" mythology does not show any signs of stopping. But then again, its never left.

Was reading an article about a year ago about the cold war and the US governments ramp up of technological innovation of the period. After the soviet union launched Sputnik, the US was frightened they would lose technologically to a rising USSR, and part of the reason was because they were minting twice the amount of engineering graduates that the US was. In the 70's and 80's, it was a rising japan. What was the solution? More engineers of course.

According to former CEO of lockheed martin Norman Augstine, engineers and scientists contribute 50-85% of GDP growth, so we're a pretty big deal (US engineers salaries have yet to reflect this?). So more engineers makes great political sense, and the corporations nod approvingly because a saturated labour market is just what they want to see. In a sense it just becomes a reinforcement cycle between government and business with the end result being stagnant wages and engineers driving taxis. Its not just the US, its happening all over the world.

As to the stagnant US economy, from what I've been reading its more to do with rising amount of income inequality and the disappearance of the american middle class that is the likely culprit. How anyone can think a growing economy can exist with a huge amount of unemployed with more to come, entire industries offshored, majority of the population on stagnant wages and huge debt levels is beyond me. Seems like simple economics, but apparently its so much more complicated than that if the business media is to be believed.


Sam
Brisbane, Australia

Young Engineer. American old west enthusiast
 
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Sam, it's interesting that you mentioned both the Soviet Union and their large numbers of engineers, and the image of underemployed engineers driving taxis as it reminds me of my first visit to Moscow not long after the fall of Communism.

At the time I was working for EDS, then part of GM, and when me and a couple of others from EDS landed at the airport we were met by a GM driver who drove us to our hotel in a nice new Cadillac. After our business was completed I had to fly back to the US while my coworkers either had other business or was heading to other destinations and so it was just me and the driver going to the airport in that Cadillac. Anyway, it turned out that the driver, a guy in his mid-30's, was a local Moscowvite whoes English was VERY good and since we had time he sort of gave me a tour of some parts of Moscow that I hadn't gotten to see while I there. Anyway, I asked him how long had he worked as a driver for GM, which was a few months, and what it was that he had done prior to that. It turns out that he was a nuclear engineer and while I didn't ask him exactly what sort of work had be been involved in he did seem to be very happy with his new job. Later when I asked one of our people who had visited Russia more often than I about this he explained where companies from the US and other Western countries were being urged to hire these former Soviet nuclear engineers and scientists, giving them whatever jobs they could as they wanted them to be able to support their families without being tempted to 'sell' their services to organizations who would put their expertise to use in ways that would not necessarily be good for the rest of the world. That incident made a very big impression on me as to how people, not all that different from me (after all, we were both engineers), had to deal with very different situations as a result of events totally beyond their control.

John R. Baker, P.E.
Product 'Evangelist'
Product Engineering Software
Siemens PLM Software Inc.
Industry Sector
Cypress, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

To an Engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.
 
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I know at least for myself, i am just unhappy with the goverment policies, and i just don't feel like going to a stupid movie, or buying new things. I'll just stay home.

The thing is the my 104k isen't doing as well, or I had to take on more risk to get the same interest I was 10 or so years ago, so now I have to plow more of my money into my retirement funds. So i have less to spend.
Good news is I can buy a new house, but as it is futher to drive, I am spending more in gas (and medical insurance).

Bottom line is I just don't feel as rich, so I spend less. Apperently other people also don't feel as rich, so they don't spend as much.

 
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Of course not. Economist understand there is no such thing as a shortage of workers in any field over the long term.

And taking people to task for being 'selfish' and pursuing what interests them is odd coming from someone who more
than likely supports the unfettered free market.

I bet he also thinks engineers are overpaid in the US.

The reason the economy is slow is that the middle class has been spending money on goods manufactured overseas
as their employment prospects simultaneously dwindled. The middle class is poor and the poor are poor so how
to jumpstart consumption with a population where a small percentage are not living check to check.

My opinion on the prospects for middle to high skill work that requires intelligence and knowledge is that they are going down
continually outside of the medical field.
 
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My wife's 401k was up over 25% this past year while mine was up close to 13%, but then her's is about 85% equities and only 15% cash and bonds, whereas I stared doing a bit more 'hedging' when I turned 60 (currently 66) and so my account is now somewhat over 40% cash and bonds. I've been maxing-out my contributions ever since I was given the opportunity to participate in a 401k and so we've just learned to live on what's left. My wife also maxed her contributions until she retired at 62, 6 years ago, and has just let it ride since then (her 'mad money' now comes from her Social Security check). After a couple of years, you don't even think about it any more.

John R. Baker, P.E.
Product 'Evangelist'
Product Engineering Software
Siemens PLM Software Inc.
Industry Sector
Cypress, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

To an Engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.
 
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"Economist understand there is no such thing as a shortage of workers in any field over the long term."

Because of this true quote, I have to ask, how long has there been a suposid shortage of engineers?

And just to compare, what do Layers and doctors make?
 
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Additionally, how long do Lawyers & Doctors go to school, what hours do they work, how much expense & time related to continuing training & certification do they have...

Posting guidelines faq731-376 (probably not aimed specifically at you)
What is Engineering anyway: faq1088-1484​
 
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Does any of this take into account the inevitable "Education Bubble?" It seems like for the last 20 years there's been big business in educating people. The big push when I was growing up was "go to college, boy! Get that paper 'cause it's the only way you'll survive!" I wonder if the editor / writer looked at enrollment and graduation trends over the last 20 years... it seems like there's not really a shortage of Engineers.

Also, through the 60s and 70s, a lot of the skilled labor jobs which support Engineering, and even Engineering work itself, has been outsourced. Not all of it, but a significant enough of it where the supply of new Engineers certainly out weigh the demand for their education in the "real world."

Someone above mentioned looking at the ecology of it all. If we continue to allow domestic companies to outsource, thus removing the jobs for which so many of us are getting educated, we will end up with a scenario where the debt cannot be repaid. Then we'll be exacerbating an already ridiculous problem thanks to the Housing Bubble and other similar things.

Just my two cents on a random topic.
 
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I think you will find that outsourcing didn't really get moving in any significant way until the mid-80's, after the tax laws were changed creating incentives for large corporations to move their manufacturing operations overseas. Later on, the R&D jobs started to move as well.

John R. Baker, P.E.
Product 'Evangelist'
Product Engineering Software
Siemens PLM Software Inc.
Industry Sector
Cypress, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

To an Engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.
 
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Exactly how old, or young, are you? When I was a kid, stuff like inexpensive toys were marked "Made in Japan".

John R. Baker, P.E.
Product 'Evangelist'
Product Engineering Software
Siemens PLM Software Inc.
Industry Sector
Cypress, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

To an Engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.
 
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