SomptingGuy
Automotive
See title. An open question to all. What will we be driving in 10 years time? (I'll have added another 20k to my '87 Volvo, but that's another matter).
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Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end? 13
- Thread starter SomptingGuy
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Well my conscience bothers me a little about the previous post. But anyway, I feel that biomass has huge potential for future energy. The American farmer has done his job so well that we have huge excesses. Farm commodity prices are at rock bottom, so much so that the government is paying farmers not to farm. It is time now for the farmer to move from the two f's (food and fiber) to three f's (food, fiber and fuel).
Biomass burn, at least the way I calculate, could pay the farmer double what he is getting per acre year for growing corn and beans and cut back sharply on the atmospheric load of anthropogenic carbon. This would bring on the age of pluggable hybrids.
Biomass burn, at least the way I calculate, could pay the farmer double what he is getting per acre year for growing corn and beans and cut back sharply on the atmospheric load of anthropogenic carbon. This would bring on the age of pluggable hybrids.
Actually, the (artificial) demand for ethanol derived from corn has pushed up crop prices to the point that Mexicans are rioting and tearing up agave fields to plant corn. One unintended consequence is a rise in tequila prices.
A very recent study of total CO2 emissions indicates that ethanol production from food crops DOUBLES the total CO2 emissions over the next 30 years compared to continued use of oil. The main source of the increase was the burning of forests and plowing of marginal farm lands in 3rd world areas for food production to offset the loss of cheap crops from the US. I can't vouch for the math but it is supposed to be credible.
A very recent study of total CO2 emissions indicates that ethanol production from food crops DOUBLES the total CO2 emissions over the next 30 years compared to continued use of oil. The main source of the increase was the burning of forests and plowing of marginal farm lands in 3rd world areas for food production to offset the loss of cheap crops from the US. I can't vouch for the math but it is supposed to be credible.
j2bprometheus
Mechanical
dgallup-
I have noticed the following:
1. We don't have all of our electric power plants in one place
2. We don't have all of our milk production in one place
3. We don't have all of our grain production in one place
So I suspect that it would not be wise to put all of our biofuel production in one place --- just my opinion.
The algae is grown in salt water, so some (perhaps most) production would be off-shore.
ATALOSS -
Do mosquitos lay their eggs in salt water or only in fresh water?
I have noticed the following:
1. We don't have all of our electric power plants in one place
2. We don't have all of our milk production in one place
3. We don't have all of our grain production in one place
So I suspect that it would not be wise to put all of our biofuel production in one place --- just my opinion.
The algae is grown in salt water, so some (perhaps most) production would be off-shore.
ATALOSS -
Do mosquitos lay their eggs in salt water or only in fresh water?
globi5
Mechanical
- Oct 10, 2005
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There's no reason to produce fuel from any food crop such as corn. Even sugar cane is much more efficient than corn.
In order to produce a fuel with a energy content, algae does make a lot of sense.
However, photovoltaics is still more efficient than algae is. Besides PV has no moving parts and there's no harvesting necessary. Also, an electric motor is more efficient than any combustion engine and the area on a roof is enough to power an electric car (or a hybrid) with photovoltaics alone.
Still, I don't think we'll see trucks or aircrafts running on electricity anytime soon. Clean electricity is not the solution to everything.
In order to produce a fuel with a energy content, algae does make a lot of sense.
However, photovoltaics is still more efficient than algae is. Besides PV has no moving parts and there's no harvesting necessary. Also, an electric motor is more efficient than any combustion engine and the area on a roof is enough to power an electric car (or a hybrid) with photovoltaics alone.
Still, I don't think we'll see trucks or aircrafts running on electricity anytime soon. Clean electricity is not the solution to everything.
There's a simple solution. Go down the page and read what mpgmike has to say about it.
TDIMeister
Automotive
So, what does this guy say that is the solution to the discussion at hand, other than yet another MPG scam that plays on most lay people's lack of grasp of thermodynamics?
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- #67
SomptingGuy
Automotive
I just love the 9X claims. That's probably pushing the engine over the 100% thermal efficiency mark. The long mpgmike post mentions adding hydrogen to the fuel. I wonder how much? 8:1 (in terms of energy content) perhaps?
- Steve
- Steve
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1
- #68
Wow, what a complex and broad topic. There are so many complexities; it is tough to give a definitive prediction. I think I am repeating alot of what TDImeister already said, as I agree with his outlook on the short term trend.
Personally, barring any drastic changes and given a short term timing of 10 years, I fully expect to have 300k+ miles on my ’03 TDI and in a 5-6 years maybe I will also have their newer CR TDI in my stable after VW proves out the durability on the new engine and/or fixes any bugs.
Short term (i.e. next 10 years), I don’t expect the offerings at the North American dealers to change drastically. More offerings of downsized engines, a slow decrease of vehicle weight, start/stop technology (i.e. mild hybrids), a few expensive full hybrids, plug in hybrids, better energy storage (batteries), and more 6-8 speed transmissions. The real question is, will it be cost effective to the consumer for these more advanced technologies? When talking current or slightly higher US fuel prices… NO.
Politics and CAFE will force the Automakers for these development changes anyways or they will penalize the automakers, so I fully expect people to hold on to their used cars longer and resort to having them re-built/overhauled more. People will also start to drive less and try to work closer to home, but will always have the need to drive. This same thing that happened in the 80’s with the then increase of CAFE.
Because EU and Asia markets are not controled by CAFE legistation, but instead by higher fuel prices, I would expect a slow change. Barring any new development in political CO2 controls, there is no need for changes. LPG/Erdgas is the current upward trend in Germany, as Diesel was a decade ago, but this is all to do with taxation regulation. I think most in the EU realize that all of this improved technology costs money, is not worth the cost of the amount of fuel saved.
My long term solution is a little pessimistic. In 40 years, given the current rate of population increase, we will have 3-4 billion more mouths to feed. Our resources (food/water/energy) will not grow at the same rate, and may have already reached their peak.
I would like to think that some countries learn to live will much less (yes, my home country of the US being the worst offender), and hopefully are not resorting to burning FOOD in their SUVs and burning away the worlds supply of Natural Gas for electricty to live their lavish lifestyle. I would also like to think that we all learn to live at an equal standard of living, but I do not put much hope into this.
Personally, barring any drastic changes and given a short term timing of 10 years, I fully expect to have 300k+ miles on my ’03 TDI and in a 5-6 years maybe I will also have their newer CR TDI in my stable after VW proves out the durability on the new engine and/or fixes any bugs.
Short term (i.e. next 10 years), I don’t expect the offerings at the North American dealers to change drastically. More offerings of downsized engines, a slow decrease of vehicle weight, start/stop technology (i.e. mild hybrids), a few expensive full hybrids, plug in hybrids, better energy storage (batteries), and more 6-8 speed transmissions. The real question is, will it be cost effective to the consumer for these more advanced technologies? When talking current or slightly higher US fuel prices… NO.
Politics and CAFE will force the Automakers for these development changes anyways or they will penalize the automakers, so I fully expect people to hold on to their used cars longer and resort to having them re-built/overhauled more. People will also start to drive less and try to work closer to home, but will always have the need to drive. This same thing that happened in the 80’s with the then increase of CAFE.
Because EU and Asia markets are not controled by CAFE legistation, but instead by higher fuel prices, I would expect a slow change. Barring any new development in political CO2 controls, there is no need for changes. LPG/Erdgas is the current upward trend in Germany, as Diesel was a decade ago, but this is all to do with taxation regulation. I think most in the EU realize that all of this improved technology costs money, is not worth the cost of the amount of fuel saved.
My long term solution is a little pessimistic. In 40 years, given the current rate of population increase, we will have 3-4 billion more mouths to feed. Our resources (food/water/energy) will not grow at the same rate, and may have already reached their peak.
I would like to think that some countries learn to live will much less (yes, my home country of the US being the worst offender), and hopefully are not resorting to burning FOOD in their SUVs and burning away the worlds supply of Natural Gas for electricty to live their lavish lifestyle. I would also like to think that we all learn to live at an equal standard of living, but I do not put much hope into this.
Your are right again dgallup about ethanol. There is no legitimate reason to burn ethanol for its energy value. It takes at least double the fuel to make it. Now if a small percentage ethanol makes engines use fuel better and more efficiently then it may be legitimate.
Biomass burn is the burning of biomass directly, not going through the efficient ethanol process. Use existing thermal plants to burn corn stocks instead of coal, natural gas and oil. CO2 in this process is neutral. The growth of corn removes the same amount of CO2 as the biomass burn produces.
Turn up the heat and let them make Nitrogen Oxides. It could be made to come out in the scrubbers and be the fixed Nitrogen needed to grow the corn. P and K should also be returned.
The problem we have today is that fossil fuel is increasing CO2 in our atmosphere.
Obviously steam engines with the processing needed to reduce environmental impact are not candidates for auto power. This would have to be done in fixed plants and the product would be electricity.
See
Biomass burn is the burning of biomass directly, not going through the efficient ethanol process. Use existing thermal plants to burn corn stocks instead of coal, natural gas and oil. CO2 in this process is neutral. The growth of corn removes the same amount of CO2 as the biomass burn produces.
Turn up the heat and let them make Nitrogen Oxides. It could be made to come out in the scrubbers and be the fixed Nitrogen needed to grow the corn. P and K should also be returned.
The problem we have today is that fossil fuel is increasing CO2 in our atmosphere.
Obviously steam engines with the processing needed to reduce environmental impact are not candidates for auto power. This would have to be done in fixed plants and the product would be electricity.
See
JWaterstreet
Electrical
As an American, I am appalled at the general perception that achieving much higher MPG is not easily possible. I spend quite a bit of time in Europe, and drive rental cars; usually always stick shift, and always diesel. My personal car in the states is a petrol Audi A6 2.7q that gets horrible mileage; about 20 MPG or so. I just returned from Europe, rented a BMW 318 wagon, drove across Germany at 160 KPH to 180 KPH when I could (getting harder nowadays due to traffic), with 4 passengers and luggage, and still averaged 42 MPG. Previous trip; it was just me and a small Seat car (don't remember the model; for Americans, this is a Spanish VW) I never felt constrained by the size or power, drove a week around various locations in France and Spain, and averaged just over 60 MPG. Yes; I understand our EPA requirements make diesels bear an extreme cost penalty at the moment, but the price of emissions technology should go down over time, and will be a price that many of us would bear in the name of both lower emissions AND lower greenhouse gases. I would buy either of these cars in a heartbeat if I could buy them.
rnordquest
New member
Don't worry about the oil companies interfering too much. They are all investing tons of money into alternative energy. When it comes time to deliver energy to vehicles, they will be in the mix somewhere. If someone outlaws oil, they'll be ready.
Right now there's a run on silicon to make all those cells. Of course it's plenty easy to make electricity without solar cells. Concentrated solar plants can generate power 24/7.
Right now there's a run on silicon to make all those cells. Of course it's plenty easy to make electricity without solar cells. Concentrated solar plants can generate power 24/7.
The silicon shortage is more of a lack-of-infrastructure thing, and has something to do with using low-grade or slightly imperfect chip-grade silicon ingots for solar cells; it's been cheap to make the solar cells because of the use of flawed/waste materials from the chip makers, but now we're seeing a ramping-up in silicon demand for solar, and that requires ingots just for solar use. Fortunately, the purity isn't quite so fussy, and as demand grows, quantity should drop the price a bit (and newer methods begin to be employed to reduce costs & environmental issues). No real shortage of feed stock - silicon is quite abundant.
Given just two parameters in auto design - aerodynamics and engine efficiency - we could easily double both right now without much effort, and get mileage that's 4X current standards. But, like anything, manufacturers are reluctant to change once they establish a production line, and fuel costs must rise enough to get them to budge (or our Government has to force them to up the mileage and efficiency ratings)..
What's really odd to me - I drive a 1984 Chevrolet Cavalier, and I managed to get 37-38 MPG traveling out to Washington two summers ago. This is 24 year-old technology! Hats off to the Spanish VW that gets 60 MPG - we ought to all be there by now!
Given just two parameters in auto design - aerodynamics and engine efficiency - we could easily double both right now without much effort, and get mileage that's 4X current standards. But, like anything, manufacturers are reluctant to change once they establish a production line, and fuel costs must rise enough to get them to budge (or our Government has to force them to up the mileage and efficiency ratings)..
What's really odd to me - I drive a 1984 Chevrolet Cavalier, and I managed to get 37-38 MPG traveling out to Washington two summers ago. This is 24 year-old technology! Hats off to the Spanish VW that gets 60 MPG - we ought to all be there by now!
GregLocock
Automotive
"Given just two parameters in auto design - aerodynamics and engine efficiency - we could easily double both right now without much effort, and get mileage that's 4X current standards."
Even if it was "easy" then very few people would buy the resulting car. But it isn't "easy" in the first place.
Cheers
Greg Locock
SIG
lease see FAQ731-376 for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.
Even if it was "easy" then very few people would buy the resulting car. But it isn't "easy" in the first place.
Cheers
Greg Locock
SIG
lease see FAQ731-376 for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.
globi5
Mechanical
- Oct 10, 2005
- 281
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Thinfilm silicon photovoltaics doesn't require silicon ingots.
The thin layer (less than 5 gramms per m2) is applied with Silane (SiH4) and Silane is already produced in abundance.
And solar thermal plant don't need silicon at all.
It's mainly a question of the regulatory framework. Germany installed about 1500 MW PV in just one year.
The Seat Ibiza Ecomotive achieves 61 mpg on average.
The thin layer (less than 5 gramms per m2) is applied with Silane (SiH4) and Silane is already produced in abundance.
And solar thermal plant don't need silicon at all.
It's mainly a question of the regulatory framework. Germany installed about 1500 MW PV in just one year.
The Seat Ibiza Ecomotive achieves 61 mpg on average.
BigUglyFord
Automotive
I have enjoyed reading this thread and would like to add a few things; what we will be driving in 10 years is what the consumers want to buy. You can have the best idea and still not make it (any one seen the movie Tucker?) Hydrogen storage is a concern as well as how much does it cost to make a hydrogen fuel cell? The text book I teach from states that the internal combustion engine is at best 30% efficient with most of the energy going out the exhaust and radiator. I was at a seminar on upcoming automotive technologies in Irving last week, and heard that gasoline direct injection looks promising as they have been able to run mixtures a lot leaner than the standard 14.7:1 ratio with out excessive NOx production. Hybrids are great for stop and go driving and a good fix if that is how you drive. It is not good for highway driving for a distance as their real benefit is in the regenerative braking and shutting the engine down when stopped. 100% electric is where it should go; electric motors are 95%+ efficient. Battery and solar technologies are making good progress. Wheel motors look good as long as they are not too heavy (unsprung weight) regenerative braking should keep the size requirements for the brakes to a minimum.
Added to that, I think that from recent reading I have done within the industry, the Electric Utilities have finally caught on that the overnight charging of an electric vehicle can bring the utilization factors up on their generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure and help their bottom line a lot. Much capacity sits idle during the middle of the night when the folks are asleep and this can be utilized initially and for a long time without any new power plant construction.
As soon as they and the automotive industry make it so that the average joe out there can just come in in the evening (or while parked near the favorite pub or even evening shift job) plug in a simple device and recharge at the utilities whim (multiplexer control of who charges when during the night) plus dealing with the odd need to get enough recharge to get home if caught out during the day, I think Electric Cars are here to stay. I think it is closer than we think.
My humble opinion only.
rmw
As soon as they and the automotive industry make it so that the average joe out there can just come in in the evening (or while parked near the favorite pub or even evening shift job) plug in a simple device and recharge at the utilities whim (multiplexer control of who charges when during the night) plus dealing with the odd need to get enough recharge to get home if caught out during the day, I think Electric Cars are here to stay. I think it is closer than we think.
My humble opinion only.
rmw
black2003cobra
Automotive
This thread did make for great reading! As far as plug-in electric cars, are our power grids up to the task? I have read that they are boarder line inadequate, even for just supplying our current energy demands.
Lou Scannon
Automotive
rmw just spoke to that concern in the post above yours. Are you in disagreement with rmw's thesis?
black2003cobra
Automotive
It was a question. Perhaps what I had read, (which was after a fairly large power outage in the NE), was concerning utilization issues in general, and not particular to evening hours. It was not that specific. Perhaps someone can point to some recent references?
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ASEI
Aerospace
- Jul 8, 2008
- 7
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Until you can drive a loaded truck 200 miles with alternative X, it isn't viable. Economies need to move mass from point A to point B - they don't run on micro-machines.
Also, until we have a massive multi-terawatt expansion in our energy producing grid, (in something other than gas power plants) we're not replacing gasoline. I really can only imagine this happening with nuclear energy. You'd have to pave over Texas with solar panels to get that much energy out of solar.
Also, until we have a massive multi-terawatt expansion in our energy producing grid, (in something other than gas power plants) we're not replacing gasoline. I really can only imagine this happening with nuclear energy. You'd have to pave over Texas with solar panels to get that much energy out of solar.
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