Gas/Hybrid, Diesel, Diesel/Hybrid, Fuel Cell - where will it end? 13

[SomptingGuy]

See title. An open question to all. What will we be driving in 10 years time? (I'll have added another 20k to my '87 Volvo, but that's another matter).

 

[dickon17]

Vehicle turnover is only about 5% per year, so don't hold your breath. Unfortunately, due to financial/political reasons, most vehicles will still be conventional gasoline/diesel for the foreseeable future (25 years).

In an ideal world, we should be getting our electrical power from nuclear and all be driving 100% electric cars. It will never happen.

 

[TheBlacksmith]

Where's my flying car like Popular Science/Popular Mechanix/Mechanics Illustrated predicte din the 1960's? Seriously, without delving into any of the conspiracy theories, the petroleum distribution infrastructure is so highly developed that any near term solution is still going to use gasoline or diesel in at least a supporting role (onboard recharge of batteries). I can buy gas or diesel about every block to 20 miles anywhere in North America. I think a higher gas tax, combined with trickle down of selective cylinder deactivation and better transmission, etc from premium/highperformance vehicles to everyday vehicles will help conserve the finite petroleum we have.

 

[j2bprometheus]

I was just looking at a list in an automotive magazine showing the top ten selling vehicles in the US.

Four of the top sellers are large pickup trucks or SUV's.

It looks like the Prius is number 45 on the best seller list- not a very impressive performance.

European gas and diesel fuel prices are roughly double what they are in the US. There are not many hybrids there either.

Why? Unless fuel prices are VERY high, hybrids don't make economic sense. Drivers are better off financially if they chose a small conventional car with a gasoline or diesel engine.


Diesels will become more common in the US over the next ten years since they have a lower cost premium compared to hybrids. Several automobile manufacturers have plans to introduce diesel versions in the 2009 - 2011 time frame.

Diesel fuel & gasoline made from plant matter, waste products, tar sands, and oil shale will become more common over the next ten years, unless oil prices collapse like they did during the early 1980's.

 

[GregLocock]

Most of the gasoline from 'X' (where X is anything from coal to turkey guts) processes are economically viable at $100 per barrel.

Therefore, unless AGW (anthropgenic global warming) gets taken seriously (no I don't feel like arguing that one today) my guess is we'll be driving much the same cars as today, albeit with slightly more efficient engines.

$100 per barrel is $2 per gallon - ie the gas price in the USA might increase by another 60c per gallon, unless they do the unthinkable and raise taxes. We already know what sort of cars people drive with petrol at $8 per gallon, and they look remarkably familiar. Perhaps the frame based SUV with a 5 litre V8 may no longer be the shopping trolley of choice, but a 2.5 litre turbo in a unibody will do the same job.



Cheers

Greg Locock

Please see FAQ731-376 for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.

 

[RossABQ]

I'd bet if every American who drives a pickup or SUV as a daily driver turned it in and drove a 30 mpg car instead, gas prices would drop at most a nickel. Why are these people driving at all? The answer is, it makes economic sense to live further away from work and drive a personal vehicle, than to pay exhorbitant real estate prices close in, and be able to walk or bike to work. Nothing seems likely to change that equation.

I predict the mainstream car of the future will be utterly conventional, but smaller, less comfortable, and more expensive.

 

[automotivebreath]

According to BMW the future of the automobile lies in
hydrogen power.

http://www.bmwworld.com/hydrogen/stragegy.htm

"The hydrogen age is here. Mankind's search for increasingly
environmentally-friendly individual mobility and
independence from fossil sources of energy has led to a
world-wide search for the fuel of the future. To ensure
both environmentally-friendly mobility and a smooth
changeover to a long-term, sustained supply of energy, the
fuel used must be fully sustainable, that is suitable for
ongoing regeneration in a constant cycle. It must also
fulfil a whole range of economic, qualitative and
quantitative criteria. Researchers and experts around the
world have found only one single source of energy able to
reach this ideal: hydrogen."

 

[Peter7307]

The most difficult item to pinpoint is the direction of political policy which is also one of the most influential in this arena.

The retail price of fuel is only one item in the equation.
Add in energy independence , greenhouse gas emission targets and promises and domestic manufacturing base and the whole argument changes , usually dramatically.

The trend will be evolution not revolution.
Expect somewhat smaller cars (but drivers and passengers are getting bigger remember)which are both more fuel efficient and "smarter".
Expect also a lower level of direct involvement by drivers.

Pete.

 

[patprimmer]

I certainly do not need a large car to be comfortable, in fact several Japanese med size sports cars or sports coups are very comfortable.

My problem is entry and exit. I find the cross over type 4 wheel drives most comfortable when entry and exit is considered, however when under way, the lower slung cars certainly ride better due to their extra stability.

Regards

eng-tips, by professional engineers for professional engineers
Please see FAQ731-376 for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips Fora.

 

[GregLocock]

I've always preffered driving trucks in trasffic, so I sympathise entirely with those who wish to sit up high. I also agree witht he egress issue.

Hydrogen is a joke fuel - distribution is awful, and no on- board system has been demonstrated with better efficiency than a diesel.

Cheers

Greg Locock

Please see FAQ731-376 for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.

 

[SomptingGuy]

I just had a look at the BMW web page that automotivebreath posted. Amazing. It boldly states that:

"BMW have cars that...

Run on water"

No wonder Joe Public gets confused and points to an oil company conspiracy.

Also on that page is a nice description of how liquid hydrogen tanks are allowed to vent when they reach 5.5 bar "in a process comparable to the evaporation of gasoline from a conventional car tank when parked in bright sunshine". I wouldn't like to be stuck in a traffic jam in a tunnel with all the cars around me "venting" hydrogen.

 

[SomptingGuy]

... as ever, Greg has no time for pointy digging implements.

 

[automotivebreath]

Greg, Why do you consider H2 a joke fuel?

BMW has completed a 100 car restricted production run of the
powerful BMW Hydrogen 7 model. With a 260 HP dual fuel V12
engine and top speed of 143 MP, the driving range is 125 miles
on H2 and 300 miles on gasoline.

http://www.autobloggreen.com/2006/09/12/bmw-officially-announces-the-bmw-hydrogen-7/

 

[automotivebreath]

SomptingGuy,
When looking at the facts, it's easy to consider conspiracy.
VW can no longer sell the 46 MPG turbo Jetta in the US
because it does not meet emissions standards.

On the other hand I cannot purchase Honda's ultra-green
Accord that emits near-zero pollution. Under terms of the
Clean Air Act, anyone involved in a Partial Zero Emissions
Vehicle sale could be subject to civil fines of up to
$27,500. That is, unless you live in California, New York or
six other northeast states that follow California's tougher
pollution rules.

 

[SomptingGuy]

So it would be perfectly ok if a US state insisted that "zero emissions" included the point of generation too? Or is that allowed to be somewhere else?

 

[SomptingGuy]

Sorry, I withdraw my argumenative post, even if that's how I feel personally. I'm interested in an unbiased debate among rational people as to what we'll all be driving after the politicians get bored of "green" voting issues.

 

[globi5]

Why bother with a 125 mile range BMW-concept, with an expensive venting tank and its inefficient hydrogen process. When you can buy a non-concept electric car with 200 mile range @ 2 cents a mile?

http://www.teslamotors.com/

(What energy is needed to produce hydrogen, transport it, liquefy it and how much energy actually ends up on the wheels = what is the wheel to wheel efficiency?).

http://www.teslamotors.com/efficiency/well_to_wheel.php

The future might lay in a hybrid, where a tiny and light IC-engine is only used for long distances (but then at high load and maximum efficiency). E.g. having a 150 kW electric motor and a 40 kW IC with generator.
Most distances are short distances, so the comparatively inefficient IC engine is usually not needed to drive about.

If the high energy density rechargeable battery is ever developed, it'll probably displace other technologies (ultimate future).

 

[automotivebreath]

As Peter7307 clearly stated earlier, the future of the
automobile is in the hands of our leaders.

"The most difficult item to pinpoint is the direction of
political policy which is also one of the most influential
in this arena."

 

[ewh]

$98,000.00 can but a lot of gasoline.

 

[globi5]

but not many 4 second 0-60 mph sportscars.