Germany seeks arrest of Ukranian Diver for Nord Stream bombing 4

[1503-44]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024...diver-in-nord-stream-probe?traffic_source=rss

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

The contract for Russian gas flowing through Ukraine ends in a matter of months.

After that we shall see what happens.

 

[waross]

I guess some think that lies are just a part of doing business. I recall Louis Rossmann's ire at being shown "5000 sq ft" business spaces that were 2200 sq ft. When asked the real estate rep said "That's just the way it is in New York City."

No wonder Donald is so upset with the verdict. It was just NYC business as usual.

--------------------
Ohm's law
Not just a good idea;
It's the LAW!

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Political....

 

[3DDave]

https://carnegieendowment.org/russi...ia-and-ukraine-renew-gas-transit-deal?lang=en

There's a whole playlist on NYC real estate. I think this is the one I recalled earlier

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbTR3lDuYqk&list=PLkVbIsAWN2lvKojYIchFhwXQq-nX09K2u&index=19

 

[Jordonlaw]

Good to see irrelevant posts being submitted by the usual suspects. Please keep to the topic !

I've reported them to the Mods this time.

 

[1503-44]

Can't help with rasins, but if you dry them out entirely, they get too hard to eat.

Many products have a minimum, maximum, or both specified. If it meets them, that's what you buy. Sometimes you get electricity at lowest voltage, sometimes highest.


--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

I reckon Ukraine will destroy those pipelines next to the ru border and possibly the pumping station on the ru side. RU has no way of replacing the pumps.

 

[1503-44]

I don't think they will mess with the pipeline system. They have had more than enough opportunity to do it already, and as you say, it will probably be out of business in a short time anyway. Why bother with it. There is lower hanging fruit at the moment.



--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

I suspect it's so there are no legal issues with the current contract.

I think there is a Russian gas field which there is no other way of getting product out of it.

Once the contract is finished then zero issues permanently closing it.

 

[1503-44]

Most fields have at least one bottleneck somewhere. Much of the world's production has only one way out. Pipelines can quite commonly bottleneck an entire region. In the US, the best fields today still have very few options, some none, or very limited pipeline capacity, or require very expensive railroad shipments.

If these remaining pipelines are shut down, the only export route for all ru Western half of the country reverts to sea tankers at St Pete. Good luck with that.
Ru will be limited to whatever they can sneak through mixing up their stuff in Turkey and the Eastern lines to China, not sure exactly, maybe 25% of their full pre-war production potential. Options will de few and far between. It seems that they are somewhere around $200 Billion short in revenues over the last year.

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Yep and they can't replace hardware or maintain the fields that they can export product from.

I doubt they can shut a well down properly so it can be recovered at a later date.

It's going to be an interesting winter globally I suspect. Europe apparently the storage is already nearly full 1 month ahead of schedule.

 

[1503-44]

Nobody is expecting anything unusual so far.
Current prices are in the range, or a bit lower since this Feb forecast.

EIA natgas price forecast.

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

So many other things that can complicate the forecast.

We will just have to wait and see.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Just for interest for those not in the European news cycles.

Not really appropriate to this forum. But gives an insight to what's going on.

https://cepa.org/article/ukraine-has-its-foot-on-gazproms-throat/

 

[1503-44]

1.7 BSCFD Maybe $8 million $/D @ $5/1000ft3, Could be less.
Going to be hard for Gazprom to survive off of that.

It's the official export meter station at the border, basically just for import duty and transport payments, Undoubtably there are other inlet and outlet meters that are keeping the pipeline running along.

Messing with that meter would be more or less inconsequential to operation.
It would be far more problematic if they simply closed the border crossing valve.

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Apparently not... It's the one that deals with the government tax.

As with the nordstream I think it will be destroyed. And there will be no way of repairing it short or medium term


The whole point is it wouldn't survive.

 

[1503-44]

Just letting it rot will do the same without the danger of escalation. End of year revenue isn't going to make a difference in the war's outcome now.

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

That's not the way they think either side.

Anyway this debate isn't really suited to failures and disasters.

Said in the nicest possible way, we can continue it in the pub.

 

[1503-44]

Here is fine. Its my thread. No argument. Just discussing alternative possibilities.

Neither side has done anything so far, with plenty of opportunity to do so. Same as the entire history of the cold War. Flow never stopped except once, due to a pipeline failure well within ru borders. Some say caused by a suspicious software "bug".

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

 

[3DDave]

The link I provided earlier indicates that it would harm Ukraine to cut off the gas supply pipeline which is likely why they haven't done so.