How will the COVID-19 pandemic change the face of business... 7

[JohnRBaker]

While this forum is ostensibly focused on Engineering, I suspect that the norms across the entire business spectrum, which will include engineering, will be forever changed as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

One example is something I saw today:

Twitter Says It Will Let Employees Work From Home Forever

“The past few months have proven we can make that work,” the San Francisco-based social media company said of lessons learned during the pandemic.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/twitter-employees-work-from-home-forever_n_5ebae72bc5b6894ab8b8ee25

Anyway, I welcome other examples or opinions/views on this topic and/or what you think the future will look like, given what we're all experiencing, and by 'all' I mean the entire world, something that is almost totally unique in the annuals of history.

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
EX-Product 'Evangelist'
Irvine, CA
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[JohnRBaker]

Note that I've read many books covering the so-called future (and I don't mean SciFi although I read a lot of that as well), however, most of this was back in the 80's and 90's, but some more recent ones as well. Books like 'The Third Wave' (1980) by Alvin Toffler, 'Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives' (1982) by John Naisbitt, 'Visions: How Science Will Revolutionize the 21st Century' (1998) by Michio Kaku, 'Everything Is Miscellaneous: The Power of the New Digital Disorder' (2007) by David Weinberger, and some others that I can't quite identify at the moment.

Anyway, it was interesting how there were certain prediction, like Naisbitt's 'Electronic cottage', which we were getting pretty close to, but which I suspect will be realized even more as a result of what's happening both in terms of the way business is thinking about the application of labor by leveraging technology at a level never attempted before.

Along those lines, it's also interesting to look back on the skeptic's views on these books. One that I found, while it was focused on a 10-year post review of 'Megatrends' (The article was published in 1992), it covered pretty much all of the major futurists' predictions of the previous period, including Toffler. This item is very interesting when you read how harsh the comments were and how skeptical the authors were, particularly when you look at what's happened in the 28 years since this screed was written, as most all of the critiques in this item have been made moot. It's actually a fun read.

The item comes in two parts. The first is the more interesting. BTW, if nothing else, look at how these items were formatted (I'm talking about the body of the report, not the overall webpage). I'm sure whoever did that thought they were pretty creative, and I guess for the time, they were, but it's a graphic example of how much has changed since this rather cynical look at technology was written.

Anyway, here are the links to both parts of the item from 1991:

https://www.eff.org/effector/4/1

https://www.eff.org/effector/4/2

If you get a chance to read these items, let me know what you think of the comments.


John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
EX-Product 'Evangelist'
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without

 

[IRstuff]

I saw one article about changes going forward, but I think there's an assumption that things will be forced to change, but the practicalities haven't changed, so reality may revert to the mean.

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[ProEpro]

I enjoy the anachronisms in old science fiction and how the future is always predicted using the present. For example early Azmov tales have engineers designing robotic brains on slide rules. In the fifties the idea of using a calculator had not been thought of.

The rest of the staff in my company may spend more time at home. Some of them will come back in for meetings or to make product mock ups. we allready know that they wanted to move to a smaller office next year. So there will be fewer people with desks. What I can't figure out is what to do with the engineering lab. It's not like I could replace it with a makerspace membership and put all or design on public display.

I wonder if the social distancing will be enough to reverse the trend of "open offices" and share communal spaces with everyone sitting at tables and no one having a desk. It was a horrible adaptation of a trend from the software worlds to the real product world.

I do think that in most places once the kids are back in school many folks will go back to the office too.

 

[IRstuff]

It was a horrible adaptation of a trend from the software worlds to the real product world.

Not sure who's actually doing that; my son's company uses computer carrels for everyone, so they can easily move to another location, if need be.

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[weldstan]

My former company had a policy that permitted work to be done at home but left it to immediate supervisors discretion, most of whom did not permit it or severely limited it. After I retired, I did remote consulting with that company and found it easily done through the computer links to the company and my smart phone. I would hope that companies would permit more stay at home work but not eliminate office work as well. I really liked working in the office because of the human to human interaction but it was not necessary every day of the week. And I would have liked to complete some of my longer, detailed reports and work manuals without undue interruption.

 

[JohnRBaker]

We had a lot of people who worked from home, usually on a two or three day a week basis. Some due to their long commute (one guy took a train down from just south of Santa Barbara to Cypress in Orange Co. Others just liked it that way. My old car-pool buddy's wife had a stroke and he arranged to work three days at home and two in the office, for years until she recovered. AS far as I know he was still working one or two days a week at home before all this hit.

My wife was forced into early retirement at 63 when her mother had a stroke up in Washington state. She went up there for about three months taking care of her and finally decided to move her down to SoCal with us. She lived with us for nearly seven years and my wife was her care-giver. I started to work at home on Fridays (when I was in town) to give her a break, so she could shop and visit friends and such. Even after we had to put her mother into a nursing home after my wife messed-up her back lifting her mother, I still kept to my Friday at home schedule (I saved 20% on gas). I continued that right up until I retired four years ago.

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
EX-Product 'Evangelist'
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without

 

[zeusfaber]

I'm used to people working from home two days a week (there not being enough desks for all of us) - but we're having to learn new tricks when it's every day, long term.

It takes a lot more effort to keep track of who's thriving and who's having a tough time.

A.

 

[CWB1]

Throughout this I have heard that while staying-home has proven working from home is technically possible for most, its not financially feasible nor practical from a business standpoint due to lost efficiency. Everybody I know in big-auto and the various supply chains was working the first two'ish weeks of this, the past month however most have been furloughed and programs paused until staff can return to the office. I have always found that I can accomplish a great deal of conceptual work, CAD modeling, and other solo activities from home. Unfortunately 90% of my time is working with groups to tweak those concepts into production designs, and trying to communicate via webconference or email dramatically slows collaboration.

Personally I suspect the biggest change will simply be due to the down economy. With every major downsizing older folks are usually forced into retirement en-masse and consequently business practice takes big leaps forward with the younger, more tech-savvy generations. I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see this kill off the last few dedicated CAD depts or cause analysis teams to shrink.

 

[miningman]

Im still waiting for someone to explain to me how the real workers..... not the computer jockeys... can be expected to work from home. Guys who drill the rock , fit pipes , hammer nails, drive vehicles and operate equipment, etc etc. H**l I'd be happy to read a well thought out estimate of what percentage of the working population these people represent.

 

[IRstuff]

There's this:

https://www.dpeaflcio.org/factsheets/the-professional-and-technical-workforce-by-the-numbers

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[Guest090822]

Im still waiting for someone to explain to me how the real workers..... not the computer jockeys... can be expected to work from home. Guys who drill the rock , fit pipes , hammer nails, drive vehicles and operate equipment, etc etc. H**l I'd be happy to read a well thought out estimate of what percentage of the working population these people represent.

Not all professions will be able to work from home - that's obvious. However, the early 1900s-model of the 40-hour work week for most engineering folks "computer jockeys" needs to be evaluated again. I get a lot more done from home due to less distractions in the office, unnecessary meetings, etc.

The U.S. construction industry makes up 6.3% of the economy according to Dr. Google.

 

[davefitz]

I would expect offices to have cubicles with barriers that are high enough to prevent direct exchange of particles from one worker to the adjacent worker, use of masks when working in more confined areas , and eating lunch at your desk. The buildings hvac system may need to be inspected and upgraded to ensure the recirc air filters are HEPA type and perhaps add UV-C arrays at the filter outlet. Persons that have co-morbitities should be given a preference to work at home, and the office should provide free vitamin D3 supplements daily to each worker. At night, a robotic UV-C disinfectant machine to patrol each office to ensure the room si cleaned for the next day.

"...when logic, and proportion, have fallen, sloppy dead..." Grace Slick

 

[buzzp]

Some people aren't cut out to work at home, while others thrive. Me, I get way more done at home not only because I don't have interruptions but I also don't have a 1.5 hour commute so I tend to work a little longer when at home. Unfortunately, it is going to take time for this to be widely accepted.

For the guys drilling rock, driving heavy equipment, etc., most of these jobs will be and are being replaced with robots and autonomous vehicles, even in the mining sector. There will still be these types of jobs but some will start to trickle away over time. Tradesman will be needed and the shortage of these people now, is driving up the wages, sometimes exceeding engineering wages. This shortage will continue to get worse.

 

[JohnRBaker]

Here's an interesting article about enhancements that have been made to the factory simulation software offered by Siemens Digital Industries division. They've added support for creating rules about social distancing and personal protective devices, etc, and then using these when designing and simulating work-cell and factory layouts and their work flows.

Siemens introduces workplace distancing solution to manage “next normal” manufacturing

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200604005601/en/

DISCLAIMER: I used to work for the Siemens Digital Industries division, but I retired over four years ago and I no longer have any financial or investment ties to the company.

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
EX-Product 'Evangelist'
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without

 

[davefitz]

If these social distancing requirements are maintained in the long term then it implies there will be a huge push toward automation to replace the worker, higher permanent unemployment, and the unemployed must then be placed on welfare and will thus be politcally disenfranchised. If increased automation does accelerate , then the tax policies should change to place a high tax burden on goods and services that have had value added by automation.

The Covid 19 disease as it is now understood has several prophylactic practices that can reduce its severity and also several treatments that can reduce mortality. In this instance, vitamin D supplements to seniors and people fo color should become the norm, and retirement facitlities will require more rigourous measures to reduce the infection rate.

So the jobs must now be transferred to the next younger generation pronto.

The bad news is that it has been eminently demonstrated how easy it is to infect the world and paralyze its economy, so one can expect many more of these custom viruses to visit us. The only mystery is who is actively developing and spreading these viruses- it surely isn't gay bats having unprotected anal sex nor is it pangolins that share needles, as there is no other "natural " way to place the HIV proteins into the coronavirus.

"...when logic, and proportion, have fallen, sloppy dead..." Grace Slick

 

[IRstuff]

HIV-1 did not contribute to the 2019-nCoV genome
No, The Coronavirus Was Not Genetically Engineered To Put Pieces Of HIV In It
No, SARS-CoV-2 does not contain HIV genetic code!

WITHDRAWN Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag

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[MartinLe]

2 years from now, job interview, HR person: "Oh and we expect work from home mostly, please tell us about your living arrangements: Do you have rommmates/spouse/children? How do you ensure uninerupted work? Do you have a room you can lock? While we are at it and since this is a skype call anyway, can you show us your home office via webcam?"

 

[phamENG]

Your first link is the same paper that IRstuff provided a link to stating that the authors have WITHDRAWN the paper. The second link, which I admit I don't have time to read in detail at the moment, looks like an interview with a political scientist - not a medical researcher, epidemiologist, or medical doctor - which makes me question the qualifications of the person making the claims. I'll have to dig into it more to convince myself one way or the other.

EDIT: couldn't help myself. I read the whole thing. There's a lot of "it looks like" and "I think" and "there seems to be" in that interview. In other words - it's a political talking head attempting to connect dots 3 78 93 and 116 in one of the most complex connect-the-dot coloring books of all time. And the result is a conspiracy theory. It has several things going against it. For one, it is assuming that the SARS was a weaponized virus. It doesn't question it, doesn't say it might be, it just states it as though it's a fact. Which it isn't. That's also a conspiracy theory. Then, to top it off, the article ends with an anti-vaccine video. Wow. Alright. I'm done. Time to get some work done...

 

[kissymoose]

Like phamENG said, that first paper you linked was withdrawn by the authors, which IRstuff had already posted. If you don't read the posts of those disagreeing with you then how can you expect them to read yours?