IPCC | Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis 32

[cmoreride]

Climate change is widespread and intensifying
says the latest IPCC report.
It underscores the urgency of strong,
sustained cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/

 

[JoshPlumSE]

It would certainly be a way to push manufacturing back into the hone country

Essentially correct.

More generally, it's reversing the problem that we've had for awhile. A lot of western european countries (and the US) have been implementing all kinds of standards that drive cost up and force manufacturing into countries that have much lower standards. So, our standards and regulations help the local environment in our countries or states or such. However, these same standards arguably make the net effect on the overall world worse.

So, if we attempt to tax or tariff the goods produced in the countries that are not behaving as we would like them to, then we can enforce our environmental improvements using economics rather than force. It would make sense to do this against the worst offenders (i.e. places that heavily rely on coal or burning wood or such). Maybe even discounts against the tariffs for hydro, nuclear or other low carbon power projects.

There are no perfect solutions.... At this point, everything is going to be painful.

 

[IRstuff]

That occurs on both ends of the life cycle; there are the infamous photos of piles of lead-soldered PC boards with scampering juvenile scroungers in some unnamed country.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg

faq731-376 forum1529 Entire Forum list

http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

 

rb1957,
Unshakeable belief in the power of the "invisible hand" for good, despite 200 years of contrary evidence, is practically the definition of 'bad religion'.
Almost as bad is 'the wisdom of the market'.

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

[Compositepro]

The quality of life for almost the entire world's population has never in human history been better than it is now. Almost entirely due to the "invisible hand", in spite of do-gooders wanting to make everyone equally poor by stealing any accumulated wealth. The problem is that too much leisure time leads to the doom and gloom thinking of the existentialists.

 

I don't debate with fundamentalists.

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

[SkipVought]

"Unshakeable belief in the power of the "invisible hand" for good, despite 200 years of contrary evidence"

And that contrary evidence is...?

I suppose you have your own facts.

Skip,

_{Just traded in my OLD subtlety...
for a NUance!}

 

[RVAmeche]

Can I just say how disappointing it is that a Climate Change Engineering forum post about an IPCC report is at least 50% political squabbling? I guess that's a bit of a microcosm for why no significant headway has been in the past 30 years.

We're at ~1.1C above pre-industrial now. CO2/methane emissions continue to rise and so far all we have are pledges from various governments that essentially amount to "the next administration will take care of it". Our models show we'll be at 1.5C in a decade or so and we just...continue to do basically nothing.

I'm sure COP26 will be full of grand speeches and promises for a better tomorrow, but until we actually start significantly cutting emissions I'm not hopeful. And its foolish in my opinion that the IPCC continues to show pathways that utilize some magic carbon capture with ~15 gigataons of capture per year which just gives politicians an out for not doing anything.

 

[1503-44]

Carbon capture can be an effective transition measure and could help in those processes where it may be extremely difficult and expensive to eliminate the production of carbon entirely. It's probably too late to sit around waiting for the ideal 97% efficient technologies to be invented. Time to act. Lead, follow, or get out of the way. Doing nothing isn't an option. If there's carbon to capture, capture some.

 

[rb1957]

@ironic mech ... I guess you didn't read the "(not !)" after my statement ?

@RV ... I guess you're new to these "discussions" ? I'm surprised if it's only 50% bickering. I agree with your post about the disconnect between IPCC plans for grandiose amounts of CO2 emission cut-backs and capture in the face of very little change in the real world. IF CO2 emissions are the worst thing since anything then there are much more effective actions to take to reduce CO2 emissions than anything done so far. One problem, of course, has already been mentioned is that not all countries would follow suit, so those that did cut back (at presumably very high cost) would be falling on their swords.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

[JoshPlumSE]

I don't debate with fundamentalists.

Probably because your position cannot stand up to any real scrutiny.

Let me say this, capitalism is the worst economic systems.... except all the others that have been tried. And, it's pretty rock-solid that Free Market Capitalism has led to the greatest reduction in poverty that the world has ever seen. And, that countries that have fully embraced Communism / Socialism / Marxism have greatly, greatly lagged the rest of the world in terms of standard of living. Even the homeless on our streets are better off than the majority of the people in North Korea or Venezuela.

Now, we have a lot of challenges in today's capitalism. We have to FORCE companies to protect the environment, provide for worker safety, etc. We've done a pretty good job of that over the years and we still have a thriving economy. Now, we have to FORCE our economy to reduce carbon output. Just another challenge. What makes it sooo much bigger is that it's difficult to force other countries to reduce their carbon output.

 

[1503-44]

Let's not talk about forcing other countries to do anything. US just recently tried to keep Germany from replacing coal with Russian natural gas. Not "green", but tons better than coal. Didn't work. POed a good ally. Forcing countries to make political choices in the USA's interest; not going to work out well.

How about everybody looks after their own hood. There's plenty to worry about right there. Not starting because the USA or Afghanistan haven't signed Koyoto isn't going to help. The others have signed. If someone is falling on a sword, it's not going to be the USA. They are already behind.

 

1503-44,

It would actually be in the self-interest of richer nations to help pay for the CO2 reduction costs of poorer nations. That would also reinforce the idea that pursuing the wasteful path of individual affluence is not something they should try to emulate any longer.

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

Probably because your position cannot stand up to any real scrutiny.

Now you are just being presumptive and insulting.

I analyze a situation according to the facts as I know them (exactly the same way I do in my professional activity). My position is not based on ideologically-based clichés precooked by others.



"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

[1503-44]

IconM, I was not at all suggesting that help be withheld, nor did I say rich nations should not pay. Economy = energy use. Directly related. It was the massive use of energy that made the rich nation's economies rich, often at the expense of others, so absolutely right, thay must "help pay" for the resulting mess.

The key word there was "force".

 

[JoshPlumSE]

Now you are just being presumptive and insulting.

I said probably. So, that's lessens my presumption a bit. Smile. Wink.

I actually didn't mean to be insulting. Just observant. Anyone who is incapable of defending their position doesn't know enough about their position to defend it. True, you claim to be "unwilling" to defend it rather than incapable.

But, in my experience, anyone who rails and rails against capitalism in favor of socialism / communism just doesn't understand basic economics. Or, basic history. That's even true if you've got a PhD in economics. Just like anyone who wears a Che Guevara shirt is supporting a person that they probably don't know much about. Perhaps not as evil as Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, or such. But, just as bad as Castro or Chavez / Maduro.

Feel free to correct me (preferably not on this thread!).... oh wait, you probably consider me (and anyone who disagrees with you) to be a "fundamentalist" that should not be engaged. Eye Roll.

 

[1503-44]

Possible uses for CC, as I mentioned above.
Notably not without its critics.

https://www.dw.com/en/is-carbon-capture-and-utilization-a-lifeline-for-oil-and-gas/a-58836857

 

[rb1957]

sorry but I smile (inwardly, to myself) when I see an article (as in the link above) talking about how to save the world by capturing CO2 ... and in the background there are thermal towers billowing water vapour into the atmosphere ... water vapour being a much more significant GHG than CO2.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

Carbon capture is a pipe dream, just one element of the fantasy that technology can reverse this mess. Even if CC could be effective (read: not heavily government subsidized), it would be far too little, far too late.

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

[SuperSalad]

CC isn't supposed to be a solution though, is it? I always thought of it as a reduction of harm measure until some true solutions were figured out/developed. Just because it doesn't get us to the end goal of sustainability doesn't mean it can't be worthwhile.

I agree with you though, there is no reverse gear on the Earth's ecosystem. The Earth and the Earth alone can and will fix itself one way or the other. If we keep abusing it and trying to manipulate it, then that fix will not be kind to us, if we can learn to live a less impactful life, then the fix can be good and livable.

Andrew H.

http://www.MotoTribology.com

 

Super,

Most technical 'solutions' are little more than tweaks that don't venture outside of the mindset that allows us to have our cake and eat it too. Politicians are desperate to tell us that, and we love to be told it.

Unfortunately there is no more cake. Meaning there is no way we can continue to burn and not suffer the consequences.


"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."