karma-dharma 8

[a-rai]

I have a few questions.

Ancient Rome's population peaked at around a million people. London in the 19th century was the first city to surpass that. According to the UN's data booklet, The World's Cities in 2018, the number of cities with at least 1 million inhabitants were 548. Tokyo was the most populous with more than 37 million people.

Consider the amount of structures and infrastructure (electrical and plumbing systems, etc.) built in a relatively short period of time. What will happen when everything starts to fail? Will we try to repair what is irreparable? In that hopeless state of things, will we hop into airplanes or spaceships to move to another plot of land or planet? Will we rebuild everything in our new home? What will happen to our old one? Will it be the post-apocalyptic world portrayed in films of the past? Will it be a laboratory for military personnel to retrieve images of mushroom clouds? In the new world, will we use the same plans or make them better? Are we all Bill Murray in Groundhog Day? Are we the end product of our own creation? Did the psyche bring the cycle? Is this not the definition of insanity?

Are you ready? I'm just curious...

 

[GregLocock]

Random whingeing disguised as deep thought. Sophomoric pub talk.

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[Aesur]

Sorry, I'm lost.
What is this discussion about?

I'm guessing the OP took a philosophical class recently or just wants to confuse us with random statements.

 

[Just Some Nerd]

OP, what leads you to believe every major city in the world has put no thought into long-term city planning?

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Why yes, I do in fact have no idea what I'm talking about

 

[IRstuff]

There is no historical precedent for such a large city. Take a closer look at Tokyo's walls and use judgement to realize the magnitude of replacing structures and substructures.

Again, pointless; there is no historical precedence for that level population, and they have to live and work somewhere.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
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[a-rai]

Just Some Nerd, I don't believe that at all. In fact, here is a picture of long-term city planning - build and they will come - in the guise of cookie-cutter apartment houses. In the long run it led to the original post.

Random is reporting and deleting my previous post because I called this thread entertaining. That's random.

 

[dik]

I've seen a lot of examples of 'bad planning' as well as changes to planning schemes that have been modified over time. Toronto, for example put their airport 'in the middle of nowhere, and eventually allowed housing to be constructed in the area. Homeowners complained about the noise and now the airport is closed during the night time. There are lots of this type of example.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[ACtrafficengr]

I suspect A-Rai is hung up on the replacement costs, and what that would do to an economy if all the bills came due at once. I think they are missing the point that barring a massive natural disaster or abysmal planning, proper preventive maintenance can prevent that.

This deterioration curve is for pavement, but a lot of other infrastructure would be similar. Proper preventive and corrective maintenance will prolong the lifespans of most facilities. The keys are planning it and funding it so you can stay near the top of the curve for as long as possible.

Some funding sources have adverse incentives. They will fund rehab or reconstruction, but not preventive maintenance. For example, the Federal Highway Administration will pay for 80% of a bridge replacement project. Perhaps they should pay for bridge cleaning and painting instead. NY State distributes highway funding to municipalities, but insists it goes to projects with ten year minimum design lives. Preventive maintenance like surface treatments have the lowest lifetime cost, but need to be reapplied more often than that.

And that's why I would take a long look at any candidate that held a ribbon cutting for a crack sealing project.

My glass has a v/c ratio of 0.5

Maybe the tyranny of Murphy is the penalty for hubris. -

http://xkcd.com/319/

 

[dik]

The red one is like the Winnipeg model. They have done very little or poor maintenance over the decades, and I think it has caught up with them.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[Aesur]

@ACtrafficengr - the point I get from that pavement maintenance curve is that roads are designed very poorly, only 13 year expected life span? No wonder I see local roads in a continuous re-build state, starting at one end, getting to the other end in time to start back over. Any idea how much more expensive it would be to say design the road for a 50 year life span, or more, I would expect it would probably be less than lifetime maintenance on asphalt.

 

[a-rai]

Bills aren't what I'm getting at. Failures all coming at once are, regardless of disasters. Nobody maintains the tubes of the underground, for example. The structure of a subway system is mostly completed around the same time (yester-year) and will eventually collapse. Printing money is useless.

 

[IRstuff]

The structure of a subway system is mostly completed around the same time (yester-year) and will eventually collapse.

You are seriously confused, as with most non-engineers; reliability is not a timer, it's a random event. Just like sinkholes do not appear everywhere all at once, unless you do something stupid; Buildings, even on the same block will have different characteristics, due to the design, construction, and environment conditions.

A good example is the SF Millennium Tower, which started leaning even before it was completed, while none of the surrounding buildings had this level of issue.

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[Just Some Nerd]

It would be pretty wild to see a world where everything immediately collapses once it exceeds its design life

----------------------------------------------------------------------

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[a-rai]

What's the design life of the Holland Tunnel? It opened in 1927 (see picture supra). I wouldn't cross it, even if ACtrafficengr paid the toll. That thing actually flooded about a decade ago, and it's only a decade older than its neighbor the Lincoln Tunnel.

 

[ACtrafficengr]

@Aesur, That's just a representative graph, and most roads last longer than that. The point is preventive maintenance has a much lower lifecycle cost than deferred maintenance.

Also, the X axis should really be in the number of truck axles crossing it, but that's pretty hard for most people to visualize.

Actual life depends mostly on weather, amount of truck traffic, pavement design, drainage, subsoil type, etc. Like any engineered product, it's a balancing act between initial costs, maintenance costs, and user costs.

My glass has a v/c ratio of 0.5

Maybe the tyranny of Murphy is the penalty for hubris. -

http://xkcd.com/319/

 

[IRstuff]

That thing actually flooded about a decade ago, and it's only a decade older than its neighbor the Lincoln Tunnel.

So, what, you don't cross either tunnel? Is the Holland Tunnel collapsed? What was the cause of the flood? Have there been no years with the same conditions as the year of the flood?

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[a-rai]

IRstuff, the idea is to see that the Holland Tunnel is 96 years old and flooded when it was 85.

NY State's Department of Transportation published Highway Bridge Data for 2022. In NY City, 105 bridges were considered poor/structurally deficient. In total, 1 was from the 1850s; 8 were from the 1860s; 2 from the 1870s; 18 the 1880s; 12 the 1890s; 93 the 1900s; 61 the 1910s; 54 the 1920s; 207 the 1930s; 111 the 1940s; 221 the 1950s; 338 the 1960s; 75 the 1970s; 44 the 1980s; 45 the 1990s; 77 the 2000s; 83 the 2010s; and 23 since 2020. Note that there are more bridges from the 1900s than from any decade after the 1960s. There are 1,126 bridges that are over 53 years old. This represents 76.44% of all bridges.

NY City's Department of Transportation published Bridges and Tunnels Annual Condition Report annually until 2020. For some reason, 2021 and 2022 are not available. In 2020, it operated 799 bridges, 4 vehicular tunnels and 53 culverts. Using 4 condition ratings (poor, fair, good and very good), 386 structures were rated fair and correspond to 48.37% of all bridges. These also correspond to 60.82% of total deck area and 65.13% of all bridge spans. Not good. The report has this: during 2020, Manhattan had the highest percentage of bridge structures rated fair - 58.56% - as well as the lowest percentage of bridge structures rated good - 25.97%. Bridges included in this report are the Brooklyn (1883), Manhattan (1909), Williamsburg (1903), Queensboro (1909), High (1848), Broadway (1960), Grand Street (1902), Hell Gate (1917), Macombs Dam (1895), Madison Avenue (1910), Pulaski (1954), Rikers Island (1966) and Roosevelt Island (1955).

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority operates bridges and tunnels on the Metro-North Railroad, Long Island Railroad and subway systems in addition to 7 bridges and 2 tunnels. These are the Verrazzano-Narrows Bridge (1964), Triborough Bridge (1936), Bronx-Whitestone Bridge (1939), Throgs Neck Bridge (1961), Henry Hudson Bridge (1936), Cross Bay Veterans Memorial Bridge (1970), Marine Parkway-Gil Hodges Memorial Bridge (1937), Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel (1950) and Queens-Midtown Tunnel (1940).

The Port Authority of NY and NJ operates the Holland Tunnel (1927), Lincoln Tunnel (1937), George Washington Bridge (1931), Bayonne Bridge (1931), Outerbridge Crossing (1928) and Goethals Bridge (1928). The latter (of Gotham City fame) in Elizabeth, NJ was replaced in 2017/18.

Additionally, the NYC Department of Parks and Recreation, NYC Department of Environmental Protection, and Amtrak operate other bridges and tunnels.

Some other examples are Carroll Street Bridge (1889), Spuyten Duyvil Bridge (1900), Pelham Bridge (1908), Borden Avenue Bridge (1908), Wards Island Bridge (1951), Park Avenue Bridge (1956), Arthur Kill Vertical Lift Bridge (1959), Alexander Hamilton Bridge (1963), Joralemon Street Tunnel (1908), Uptown and Downtown Hudson Tubes (1908/09), North River Tunnels (1910), East River Tunnels (1910), 60th Street Tunnel (1920), Park Avenue Tunnel (1834) and Viaduct (1919).

 

[a-rai]

I'd like to clarify that the previous post refers to New York City only. Bridges and tunnels serving the rest of the New York-Newark urban agglomeration of 18,819,000 (as per the UN's data booklet cited earlier) are not included.

 

[Sparweb]

The notion that anything will fail, all at once, at the end of its life, has been a subject of discussion and debate and even poetry for a LONG time. Practical people can figure this stuff out. Logic is logic. That's all I say.

It's a fun read, for those so inclined. Actually it's way more fun in voice. Start your next Zoom meeting with this.

Have you heard of the wonderful one-hoss shay,
That was built in such a logical way
It ran a hundred years to a day,
And then, of a sudden, it -- ah, but stay,
I'll tell you what happened without delay,
Scaring the parson into fits,
Frightening people out of their wits, --
Have you ever heard of that, I say?
Seventeen hundred and fifty-five.
Georgius Secundus was then alive, --
Snuffy old drone from the German hive.
That was the year when Lisbon-town
Saw the earth open and gulp her down,
And Braddock's army was done so brown,
Left without a scalp to its crown.
It was on the terrible Earthquake-day
That the Deacon finished the one-hoss shay.
Now in building of chaises, I tell you what,
There is always somewhere a weakest spot, --
In hub, tire, felloe, in spring or thill,
In panel, or crossbar, or floor, or sill,
In screw, bolt, thoroughbrace, -- lurking still,
Find it somewhere you must and will, --
Above or below, or within or without, --
And that's the reason, beyond a doubt,
A chaise breaks down, but does n't wear out.
But the Deacon swore (as Deacons do,
With an "I dew vum," or an "I tell yeou")
He would build one shay to beat the taown
'N' the keounty 'n' all the kentry raoun';
It should be so built that it could n' break daown:
"Fur," said the Deacon, "'t 's mighty plain
Thut the weakes' place mus' stan' the strain;
'N' the way t' fix it, uz I maintain,
Is only jest
T' make that place uz strong uz the rest."
So the Deacon inquired of the village folk
Where he could find the strongest oak,
That could n't be split nor bent nor broke, --
That was for spokes and floor and sills;
He sent for lancewood to make the thills;
The crossbars were ash, from the straightest trees,
The panels of white-wood, that cuts like cheese,
But lasts like iron for things like these;
The hubs of logs from the "Settler's ellum," --
Last of its timber, -- they could n't sell 'em,
Never an axe had seen their chips,
And the wedges flew from between their lips,
Their blunt ends frizzled like celery-tips;
Step and prop-iron, bolt and screw,
Spring, tire, axle, and linchpin too,
Steel of the finest, bright and blue;
Thoroughbrace bison-skin, thick and wide;
Boot, top, dasher, from tough old hide
Found in the pit when the tanner died.
That was the way he "put her through."
"There!" said the Deacon, "naow she'll dew!"
Do! I tell you, I rather guess
She was a wonder, and nothing less!
Colts grew horses, beards turned gray,
Deacon and deaconess dropped away,
Children and grandchildren -- where were they?
But there stood the stout old one-hoss shay
As fresh as on Lisbon-earthquake-day!
EIGHTEEN HUNDRED; -- it came and found
The Deacon's masterpiece strong and sound.
Eighteen hundred increased by ten; --
"Hahnsum kerridge" they called it then.
Eighteen hundred and twenty came; --
Running as usual; much the same.
Thirty and forty at last arrive,
And then come fifty, and FIFTY-FIVE.
Little of all we value here
Wakes on the morn of its hundreth year
Without both feeling and looking queer.
In fact, there's nothing that keeps its youth,
So far as I know, but a tree and truth.
(This is a moral that runs at large;
Take it. -- You're welcome. -- No extra charge.)
FIRST OF NOVEMBER, -- the Earthquake-day, --
There are traces of age in the one-hoss shay,
A general flavor of mild decay,
But nothing local, as one may say.
There could n't be, -- for the Deacon's art
Had made it so like in every part
That there was n't a chance for one to start.
For the wheels were just as strong as the thills,
And the floor was just as strong as the sills,
And the panels just as strong as the floor,
And the whipple-tree neither less nor more,
And the back crossbar as strong as the fore,
And spring and axle and hub encore.
And yet, as a whole, it is past a doubt
In another hour it will be worn out!
First of November, 'Fifty-five!
This morning the parson takes a drive.
Now, small boys, get out of the way!
Here comes the wonderful one-horse shay,
Drawn by a rat-tailed, ewe-necked bay.
"Huddup!" said the parson. -- Off went they.
The parson was working his Sunday's text, --
Had got to fifthly, and stopped perplexed
At what the -- Moses -- was coming next.
All at once the horse stood still,
Close by the meet'n'-house on the hill.
First a shiver, and then a thrill,
Then something decidedly like a spill, --
And the parson was sitting upon a rock,
At half past nine by the meet'n-house clock, --
Just the hour of the Earthquake shock!
What do you think the parson found,
When he got up and stared around?
The poor old chaise in a heap or mound,
As if it had been to the mill and ground!
You see, of course, if you're not a dunce,
How it went to pieces all at once, --
All at once, and nothing first, --
Just as bubbles do when they burst.
End of the wonderful one-hoss shay.
Logic is logic. That's all I say.

 

[a-rai]

Logic is this:

If a bridge is a bubble and bubbles burst,
you're asking for trouble if you build the first
and quadruple and double to quench your thirst;
you'll collect the rubble when first comes to worst.

That's my New Yo'k say.

 

[IRstuff]

That thing actually flooded about a decade ago, and it's only a decade older than its neighbor the Lincoln Tunnel.

the idea is to see that the Holland Tunnel is 96 years old and flooded when it was 85.

By this argument, the Lincoln Tunnel should have collapsed by now as well, and yet, both are still functional. You cannot predict the exact time of a total failure; such is the nature of random events.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert!

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