RE: Educated Opinions on Climate Change . . . . Peak Oil 3

[ornerynorsk]

Not to derail the original thread from its focus of discussion on AGW, but the argument is often made that we are running out of fossil fuels.

Disclaimer (flashing lights and sirens) I am no geo or petro expert, not even a novice, not even by the furthest stretch of the imagination. With that in mind, let me bring up the subject of peak oil as it relates to some supposed successes the Soviets had with ultr deep wells and rejuvenation of wells which had apparantly suffered flow reduction to the point where, conventionally, they would have been abandoned and removed from service.

Interesting stuff, and I would very much like to hear back from folks who are genuinely knowledgeable in the field. Total bunk, something to it, or have we all been handed the deluxe bill of goods from big oil and our collective western governments?

It is better to have enough ideas for some of them to be wrong, than to be always right by having no ideas at all.

 

[cranky108]

Interesting article/paper/report on current gas production, and electric interdependicy:

http://www.nerc.com/files/Gas_Electric_Interdependencies_Phase_I.pdf

Not sure it has much to do with peak oil, but it does talk about new supplies in natural gas in North America.

 

[zdas04]

I didn't read the whole thing, but one statement in the executive summary caught my attention: "In terms of supply, almost all of the future growth in natural gas demand will come from the electric sector". This statement seems like wishful thinking to me.

The industry is scrambling to reverse the huge downward pressure that Shale Gas is putting on prices (2007 prices were over $10/MCF, 2008 was arond $3/MCF, 2011 was back up to around $4, projected 2012 is under $2). Two gas-to-liquids plants are in the prermitting process and at least three LNG export facilities are being permitted. Either natural gas as a motor fuel or major LNG capability will create a demand growth that will dwarf electric generation.

The rest of what I read seemed to be pretty cogent for the most part.

David