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BigInch

BigInch

Petroleum
Jun 21, 2006
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2008 Balance sheet

Estimated cost of BP spill (by Valdez standards).

Valdez Data
Clean up 3.8 Billion
Legal 5.0 Billion
Spill Vol 250,000 BBLS
Cost per BBL 35,200 $/BBL
Nobody Killed 0 $
----------------------------
30 days at average of estimated leak rates
5,000 to 100,000 BOPD = 55,000 BOPD
days/month 30 days
BBLS/mo. 1,575,000 BBLS
Presumed Dead Humans 11
Unknown Collateral Damage x
----------------------------------------
Cost per day 1989 $ 1,848,000,000
Inflation Factor since 1989 x 1.7893
Cost per day 2010 $ 3,306,626,400
----------------------------------------
Days of spill as of 21 May 2010 31
Total of known damages $ 102.505 BILLION

From the balance sheet, its obvious not even BP can take any more of this, and nobody knows when it's going to stop.
Looks like it's setting up for a total wipe out at somewhere around -30 Billion.

* Inflation rate from,
**********************
"Being GREEN isn't easy" ..Kermit

 
Ya. Do you remember Greenspan's favorite term, "Irrational exuberance"? My simple answer to that statement is, people bought Enron, etc. etc. all the way down the track too. If Enron's numbers were spread out all over the Gulf of Mexico for all to see, it probably would have been a different story. As it was, maybe even Ken Lay didn't know what the numbers really were. Here the only BIG unknown is the actual leak rate. Wanna' bet that somebody knows exactly what it is... well +/- 15%? Its just a matter of fluid dynamics and running the numbers.... if you had your hands on the well data, you could get a pretty resonable idea of what that rate could be wide open. I could probably hit it close just by tagging a slow motion of the plume jet... maybe. Bet someone could do it. Isn't it a little wierd that they didn't start off with saying 100,000 BOPD (they wouldn't be drilling out there if it didn't have that ultimate capacity) and then tell us some good news when it turned out to only be 52.5? Just a thought or two.

**********************
"Being GREEN isn't easy" ..Kermit

 
I'm sure I'm not the only engineer to have been told early on his career something to the effect " If you cant measure it, you cant control it".

Someone from BP was quoted recently as saying something to the effect " We cant measure the flow rate". It would have been really amusing to listen to an on-the-ball reporter ( perhaps with an engineering background) quote that cliche back at BP and await the response
 
I can see it now. Before BP goes under they'll say they didn't know how big the leak was (nobody did, not even the gov't!) and therefore could not say they were going to pay all damages and therefore are limited to the law when the leak occurred. What was that? $10,000,000 IIRC. They waste more than that every month, pre-leak basis. After all, while the leak was going on they were under duress!

Good luck,
Latexman
 
I'm with BigInch, BP knows fully well what the well tested out and can readily estimate the leak rate therefrom.

 
OK lets make this interesting. Big Inch suggests somewhere between 5 and 100,000 BOPD and averages it out at 55,000 BOPD.

Lets start an informal group of interested engineers who would be willing to assist BP, the media, the government or the environmental groups in coming up with our best estimates. When BP finally puts out an official number ( not that theres any guarantee it will be an asccurate number) we can see who gets the cigar.

My number is 69,000 BOPD and its not a complete guess but i wouldnt want to stake my proffessional reputation on the calculation either. Any others out there???
 
Well if we're going to get technical, at what temperature would that 69,001 BOPD be measaured at?? 32 degrees, 70 degrees?? What would be the barometric pressure on the day of measurement and what direction is the wind coming from??
 
I can't locate the original press release from the Wood's Hole scientists where they offered in the first week to use the same instruments they use to measure flow at all the black smokers in much deeper water. Here are two tidbits of information referring to the offer.

There is an interesting video from Nat Geo on the sinking of the DWH where towards the end of it just before the water monitor nozzle moves in if you look close on the left side you can see one hell of a flow of oil. It's a good thing the riser kinked


 
Just a thought:
In project management you very early learn to rank your priorities (time, cost, scope/operability/quality, …) because that is what you base your decisions on.
What is the ranking of BP’s priorities? (get off the headlines, keep the well for future exploitation, stem the leak, …)
Kind Regards,
hahor
 
Has anyone read anywhere what the reservoir pressure was before the leak occured?
 
Based on an analysis of the fluid velocity out the vent, one of my friends at BP estimated a flowing "wellhead" pressure over 15,000 psig. That makes reservoir pressure in the neighborhood of 25,000 psig.

People keep saying "why can't they just stick a plug in the pipe?". It would be much like hanging a plumb bob on the end of a string and trying to force it into the end of an operating power washer.

David
 
Ok, well based on a flowing pressure of 15,000 psig I am going to estimate (guess) the leakage rate to be 22,500 BPD.
 
They started the "top kill" at 12:00 PM Eastern Time. No reports yet and the TV feed is still on on the riser leak.
 
I keep hearing that BP is the only one that has the technology and equipment needed to kill this well but if you sort of analyse it BP has nothing really to bring to the table

The rig belongs to Transocean.
The BOP preventer is from Cameron.
The cementing equipment belongs to Haliburton
The ROV"S belong to Oceaneering

According to testimony in Congress BP's contribution has been to use a cheap cement and replace drilling mud with salt water. There is a also statement that their indecision to hit the BOP switch was made so late that when it was there was no hydraulic power to operate it.
 
Change "technology and equipment" to money and you'd abe reading between the lines.

"We have a leadership style that is too directive and doesn't listen sufficiently well. The top of the organisation doesn't listen sufficiently to what the bottom is saying." Tony Hayward CEO, BP

**********************
"Being GREEN isn't easy" ..Kermit

 
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