Texas power issues. Windfarms getting iced up. 67

[Alistair_Heaton]

That's a lot of capacity that's been lost. Must admit being Aberdonian we always associate Texas with hot and humid... Not snow storms.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...nd-turbines-texas-power-outages-b1802596.html

 

[1503-44]

Texas wind energy isn't a coincidence. Two visionary TX oilmen were instrumental in TX wind power development. They were talking about wind energy long before the rest of us ever new of it. Of course we thought they were total nut jobs back then, but now you just gotta' hand it to them.

George Mitchell The oilman who loved sustainable energy.

T. Boone Pickens Former Texas Oilman Pursues World's Largest Wind Farm

We can't get too carried away though. TX percentages of renewable as total capacity is behind too many others. As we've seen from above, getting that percentage higher will be a struggle with that huge base load. But as is a common occurrence of late, if they can export enough gas and NGL to EU, the local gas price will rise and renewables of all kinds will come into sharp focus, simply to avoid those higher gas fuel costs entirely. But by then the EU will be far ahead and cutting gas imports.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

The supply of the NG is behind all the political arguments about Nord stream2. For those that haven't heard about it

https://www.nord-stream2.com

Its basically the only way in hell Germany can reduce its lignite consumption. Try and stay on renewables as much as it can but have the gas sitting on standby.

I am not so sure though of the wisdom of putting all your eggs in the one basket with the supplier though.

I suspect it will be completed though what ever sanctions are imposed. Bit like the aerospace sanctions Germany will just ignore them and France will bitch about them.

 

[1503-44]

I am really PO at US sanctions on that pipeline. EU energy security is EU ONLY business. The US has no right to interfere. What the EU has now passes through Ukraine. Is that secure? Really. Ukraine can just as easily close the valve, if they don't get a big enough EU aid package. That one pipeline route is a huge vulnerability in EU energy security. IMO, two routes are better than one, full stop.

Some say, USA and some eastern EU members, those that want to keep Russia as far away as possible (on the other side of their border), dont want Nordstream II. Basically everyone else does want it. If Russia was to get coercive using the gas as a political weapon, EU would always have the choice to close the valve. But it should be EU's sole discretion. And this is the second NS pipeline. The first one has been in service for years now. Russia can easily coerce the EU all it wants to by simply shutting that pipeline down. Or any pipeline. There are oil pipelines coming from Russia too. The sanctions on NS II are a blatent attempt to keep EU dependent on US political whim as well and keep the EU gas market open, so they can be ready to start buying expensive NGL, made in USA. How secure are a chain of NGL carriers traversing the North Atlantic. Have not the dangers of submarines in the North Atlantic been known for 100 years?

Pull back the curtains on the ones sponsoring sanctioning bills in the US Senate. Who's there? Is it Ted? Is it John? Aren't they TX senators? Spoilers alert. Yes! If it was really a political global security question, they would be somebody else.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

This is purely opinion of a Brit that lives in the Baltics.... I hope this doesn't contravene the talking politics rules.

Things are not as transparent as they seem, I certainly didn't have a clue until I helped them out putting some Scottish quality into the local gene pool.

There is still colossal networks of shall we call players from the soviet times. They all speak Russian fluently they all think the same way and still play by the same rule book.

A lot of the German older politicians even if they were on the west side still know everyone on the east side. Putin Speaks fluent German, Merkel speaks fluent Russian.

So there is lots of mixing and plays which are perfectly normal to them which are utterly strange to those of us in the west of Europe. When the soviets pulled out they seeded all the populations with ethnically Russians. Very few want to live in Russia but the mind set lingers.

Now a lot of them see doing deals with Russia as no big problem its normal even if it goes wrong you may get your legs broken, if you hire a fancy lawyer to argue the toss they will get their legs broken and fingers. Its not as bad as it sounds to be honest if you keep out of it. They all seem to know the rules and stick to them. You might say what's that got to do with the pipeline.. There will be pay back if its cancelled more than likely worse than US sanctions.

Now the pipeline arguments are billed as a security issue, its only 50% of the picture. The rest is political over who gets the cash from the gas. Every m3 that comes out that pipeline is one m3 that's not shipped over the Atlantic. To be honest for a sizable number over here think being reliant on the USA for gas is worse than Russia.

And now thrown in the UK has left the EU and the southern fields in EU sectors are all coming to end of life and West of Shetland is opening up.

BTW my 5 year old speaks Russian and gets a free visa to cross the border to visit the family graves across the border and could get a Russian passport through his Grandmother if he wanted it.

I really don't pretend to understand it all. But its certainly not the way its portrayed in the English speaking media.

 

[1503-44]

You certainly will find no arguement with me there. My passport is still blue, but I've been seeing a clearer picture of way more than two sides of things to many and various issues since I exported myself in '85. The truth is always somewhere in the very wide middle range.

As for EU energy security, history shows that throughout the entire worst years of the Cold War, the oil pipelines from USSR never skipped a beat. USSR oil pipelines were more reliable than Big Ben. The previous US admin made it clear that the sentiments in the US can easily shift unpredictably every 2 to 4 years. That risk does not appear to have gone away and may intensify. All risks are minimized by maximising your options and distributing your risks as much as possible. For energy that translates to obtaining access to multiple energy sources, all you have available, closest to home and traversing safe routes. If there is only one chicken coup, don't let the fox in. Better that they fight each other for access. You will also get the best price when all are competing.

PS It is not politics. It is "energy security". Unfortunately the geopolitical powers well know the strategic value of controlling it. WWII prime objectives were every known vulnerable large oil field in the world within reach and all the refineries, storage depots, trains, trucks and ocean tankers moving it. I always think of the line from the movie "Patton". "They (Germans at the Battle of the Bulge).were carrying hoses.", realising they had to siphon fuel from captured American vehicles and that they had no gasoline of their own.

 

[electricpete]

For better or worse, the Biden admin has reversed many of the Trump admin's actions. Considering this Nord Stream 2 pipeline arguably helps Germany move away from coal and the Biden admin talks about an environmentally-conscious agenda, maybe these "sanctions" are something that will end up getting reversed.

=====================================
(2B)+(2B)' ?

 

[1503-44]

I am afraid, and relatively certain that it will not be reversed. There is little political downside in the US to reversing it. Selling more gas abroad is just good for US business and balance of international payments, it create local jobs and a hell of a lot of tax revenue. Win-win and, if it turns sour, Dems can dodge the blame. I agree that it isn't a good way to treat allies, but they should be used to that my now.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Well Germany has just started building up for Dattln-4 getting fired up. I suspect there will be quite a bit of noise about that in June.

I doubt very much if Nordstream or for that matter all the nonsense over aviation subsides will be reversed. As with the aviation stuff with the aircraft in question not being produced any more with Nord stream the pipeline will be online and pumping huge quantities of gas.

And they will be left with no realistic face saving way of removing the sanctions that will not hit them hard both sides of the Atlantic with the electorate. Even though both will be doing pointless harm to both sets of electorate and change absolutely nothing.

 

[dik]

It's not enough... from the charts I've seen, a substantial part of their energy comes from 'unfriendly' sources. This will have to change substantially in the future.

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

I thought Vermont was still French? With a population density less than Alaska?

 

[Fischstabchen]

Dik,

You are being really disingenuous. Texas and the Gulf Coast region is the industrial center of the U.S.

 

[dik]

Not at all... and it will have to change... for being the industrial centre... says something about the last freeze...

Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better?

-Dik

 

[JohnRBaker]

For the record, the population density of Alaska is 1.3 individuals/square mile. Vermont is 68.0. And for comparison, since they were just mentioned, Texas is 101.2 and California is 246.1. And before anyone asks, New Jersey is the densest populated state at 1,210.1 (of course, if Washington DC ever became a state, it would be the densest at 10,588.8) and the least dense is the aforementioned Alaska. Note that these numbers are based on an estimate of the US population made in 2013.

For anyone interested in their state's numbers, here's the link to the site where I got my figures from:

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_population_density

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
EX-Product 'Evangelist'
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without

 

[1503-44]

Got the numbers right here, and I find it interesting to contine the comparison with Germany.
German population is 83MM, almost 3X that of TX at 29MM
Germany has 2.5 X the generator capacity, almost the same, but a little smaller, gen capacity per capita.

Nuclear capacity of Germany is almost 2X Texas. Consistant with relative sizes of the grids.
NatGas gen capacity is approx equal in both TX and Germany, but % of NatGas generators in TX is 4X German
TX seems overdependent on natgas, but given the size and proximity of the resource, anything else would be hard to do.
German solar capacity is far greater at 18X Tx and German % of the Solar in the mix is 6X Texas.
Texas would appear to be very underdeveloped in solar, esp given the substantial resource available.
Solar could make some inroads there.
Germany has over 2X coal capacity, but the two share the same % of mix
Germany has 3X the wind capacity, but the two share the same % of mix
There still appears to be room for more Tx wind generators.
Hydro of both is insignificant

Capacity GW
Type____TX___Germany
Nuclear___5______8
Coal_____18_____44
NatGas__35______29
Hydro____1_______5
Wind____21______62
Biomass__0_______8
Solar_____3______53
All_______83____209

Makeup of Mix[highlight #FCE94F][/highlight] %
Type____TX___Germany
Nuclear___6______4
Coal_____22_____21
NatGas__[highlight #FCE94F]42_____14[/highlight]
Hydro____1______2
Wind____26_____30
Biomass__0______4
Solar_____[highlight #FCE94F]4_____25[/highlight]

 

[RedSnake]

I think even if Bidens choice not to lift the sanctions of Nord Stream 2 pipeline is due to "climate".
It might have a lot to do with NATO too.
Sweden is neutral but we are against the pipe line.
It is mostly because Baltic Sea is a very environmentally sensitive inland sea.
But also because it gives the Russians an excuse, to in principle be inside Swedish territorial waters or at the edge at all times.
In Sweden, the enemy always comes from the east.

Best Regards A



“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

 

[1503-44]

That part of the NS2 pipeline near Sweden is already completed. Not to mention NS1, which has been there in operation for 10 or so years. So they already have an excuse to go there, not that they're looking for one. I think they like your vodka , or is it the strömming they're after?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/19/sweden-search-russian-submarine-stockholm

https://www.rt.com/news/310967-sweden-russian-submarine-found/

https://conservativeangle.com/two-s...submarine-and-turned-the-country-upside-down/

https://www.rbth.com/science-and-tech/326583-stinky-mystery-russia-sweden

 

[RedSnake]

Well with U-137 they definitely had enough of their own Russian made vodka available, but maybe it was the day after and it was completely finished, what do I know ..
And this last years there has been a lot of humpback whales sitings in the Baltic Sea even as far north as Stockholm and they are surely after the strömming, and they can also be mistaken for U-boats.

This thing with cutting of the gas was used in a conflict Russia hade, I can't remember who got the bad end of the stick, but you can as in Texas always blame it on faults and problems, it's a way hinting that you are not pleased.

Best Regards A

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

 

[1503-44]

Russia cut gas going to the Ukraine, maybe 15 years ago, but only because the Ukrainians didn't pay. Lucky they still have their kneecaps, although a quarter of the country has nearly disappeared. If I remember, the Ukrainians then started messing with some valves on the lines going to EU, but got told in no uncertain terms to stop that crap before someone got hurt. Dont get behind on payment and you'll always walk on both legs. Guaranteed.

From where does Sweeden's gas come. I dont think that I ever worried about that before.

 

[RedSnake]

Only 3% of our energiproduktion is natur gas.
And we have around 5-6 % more that is undefined power sources for district heating as unsortable waste, biogas, wood, oil, coal.
The rest is hydro, nuclear, wind, solar.
I think the natur gas it mostly comes from Norway.
The factory's with blue dots around are biogas facilities.

Best Regards A



“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

 

[1503-44]

Thanks.