The Lemming's Rush to Net Zero 6

[GregLocock]

Apparently at their recent holiday in Dubai the pollies signed up to a 200% increase in renewable electricity generation by 2030. At the moment the world is on track for 100%. So, half as much of an increase as they signed up to.

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...-renewable-electricity-generation-by-2030-iea

This is not surprising, judging by Australia, where the impact of what would be needed is slowly being flushed out. Specifically, despite being opposed to it for many years, the government have realised that natural gas is a necessary transition. They still haven't accepted that a planned transition is needed rather than just a bunch of rent seekers building whatever is most financially viable in a sector dominated by subsidies at both a Federal and State level.



Cheers

Greg Locock


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[GregLocock]

AEMO just dropped another bombshell, or at least emphasised something I'd been quietly ignoring. Their modelling shows electricity demand will double by 2050. So any planning based on the current grid will be woefully inadequate.

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[TugboatEng]

Will that doubling or electricity demand by accompanied by a reducing in energy from other sources? I have not seen anything to indicate that it would.

 

[GregLocock]

Meanwhile in the Northern Territory (pop 0M)

Consumers will have to pay higher electricity bills and taxpayers will have to fork out at least $1bn extra if the Northern Territory is to meet Labor’s ambitious green energy target, according to modelling that contradicts politicians’ claims the target will cost nothing.

The modelling was produced by the public utility Territory Generation and warns that reaching 50 per cent renewable power by 2030 will likely push up system costs by 20 to 30 per cent and leave about $1.9bn worth of prepurchased gas “stranded”.

“Reaching the 50 per cent renewable target by 2030 will require a total investment of $1.1bn to $1.3bn — $600 to $700m in new generation, $300m to $350m to augment the network … and $200m to $250m in battery storage, even assuming technology costs decline over time,” a summary of the modelling says.

“Capital costs will replace fuel costs as the key driver for electricity prices … if real retail electricity prices are maintained at the current level, the value of this ­investment … would be borne by the government through ­incremental CSO (subsidy) ­payments.”

The summary was produced in June 2017, shortly before Chief Minister Michael Gunner released his government’s Roadmap Renewables report. It raises questions about whether he misled voters by claiming the 50 per cent target would be cost-neutral.

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[GregLocock]

Some academics plan for Australia.

This is an overview of how they modelled it

https://www.netzeroaustralia.net.au...lts-launch-event-presentation-19-April-23.pdf

And this is how they are trying to sell it.

https://www.netzeroaustralia.net.au...to-make-net-zero-happen-updated-19-Sep-23.pdf

In most scenarios we seem to have to spend well over one trillion dollars by 2030. This is about 8% of GDP, and exceeds the budget for all government healthcare services+defence

The total bill by 2060 is a lazy 8 trillion dollars. And they say nuclear power is expensive.

The effect on global average temperature of all this is going to be of the order of unmeasurably small.




Cheers

Greg Locock


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[TugboatEng]

9/10 in the top row are men. This can't bode well for their DEI goals.