The wheels are falling off the Net Zero bandwagon

[GregLocock]

There are no commercially viable hydrogen from water plants, there are no successful carbon capture from atmosphere facilities (there are pilots, or trees) there are few carbon capture from chimneys that are operational and they underperform, and use more energy than expected.

Every one of those technologies can be demonstrated at a lab scale, the results of which can be used to persuade the woolly minded to subsidise or invest in them.



Cheers

Greg Locock


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[rb1957]

all schemes (scams ?) designed to separate the gullible (the politicians) from our money.

t'was ever thus.

I recommend "Deadwood" as an exemplar of politics then, and politics now.

"Wir hoffen, dass dieses Mal alles gut gehen wird!"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

 

[waross]

Hi Greg.
I'm not trying to put you on the spot.
I am asking because I respect your knowledge.

There are no commercially viable hydrogen from water plants,

My residential heating bill.
For every $1 of gas cost to me I also pay $1.81 combined green fees and taxes.
How far would that go as a subsidy towards making hydrogen from water viable?


--------------------
Ohm's law
Not just a good idea;
It's the LAW!

 

[TugboatEng]

Looks like natural gas is $2.20 per MMBtu. Hydrogen made from petroleum feed stock is the least expensive at $25 per MMBtu (assuming 150kbtu per kg). Other sources such as wind and solar are up to double.

https://theicct.org/the-price-of-gr...ral estimates of,the range in the literature.

 

[GregLocock]

Typical subsidies for green hydrogen are of the order of $3-5 per kg, in order to get the price cost competitive with NG, $2/kg equivalent. OTOH the UK does it in style, $12/kg

https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/pro...n-projects-in-first-auction-round/2-1-1571272

There's this, it is too long for me to read

https://www.menon.no/wp-content/uploads/2023-48-Hydrogen-subsidy-regimes.pdf

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[rb1957]

I'm sure the greens don't like this approach (finding a substitute fuel). I think they'd rather "do with less, or better none (not do the same by other means)"

"Wir hoffen, dass dieses Mal alles gut gehen wird!"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

 

[JoshPlumSE]

IMO, the greens are either anti-propserity or they are hypocrites.

Anti-prosperity meaning that they have this naïve notion that we'd all be better off if we lived a subsistence existence like pre-industrial societies. If we all lived off the land like native Americans circa 1500. Never mind how brutal life was at the time.

Hypocrites in that so many of the people who jump up and down about CO2 emissions are also against nuclear energy. So, there is one source of energy that produces essentially ZERO CO2 emissions, yet you are against it? If so then you don't genuinely believe that CO2 / climate change is a real danger, do you?

 

[rb1957]

you must be fun at parties !

"Wir hoffen, dass dieses Mal alles gut gehen wird!"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

 

[JoshPlumSE]

Yeah, I can be annoying about this issue. Strangely, I don't get into a whole lot of arguments about it. I do believe in reducing CO2 emissions. I always mention that my positions are more based on "energy economics" concerns about how to get where we want to go rather than challenging whether there is a problem.

I talk about intermittency and how power demand often doesn't match up great with wind and solar power production. And, how that becomes a major challenge if we're talking about replacing our proven technologies with unproven ones.

That frequently leads me into talking about the Ivanpah solar plant (in CA on the way to Vegas) which uses solar mirrors to produce steam and is then just a traditional steam turbine generator. Since it's basis is a traditional steam generator, it even uses fossil fuels when the sun doesn't shine so that it can produce power more steadily compared to photovoltaic cells.

 

[Tomfh]

IMO, the greens are either anti-propserity or they are hypocrites.

In my experience with the Australian greens, yes they are massive hypocrites, pushing hard for climate action (which they expect *otherw* to do), while rejecting nuclear energy, the only reliable source of emissions-free power.

Many of them have revolutionary leanings, with some openly embracing Marxist or socialist ideas. They appear driven by a desire to tear down the existing system, believing it’s the only way to move forward.

 

[GregLocock]

Volvo ditches plans to be EV only by 2030. Car makers globally jumped on the EV bandwagon, in a mighty burst of DEI inspired optimism, and probably a vague attempt to stop looking like the bad guy. I must admit I indulged in a certain amount of eye rolling when this push was announced, as it seemed counter to any business plan I could imagine. As an engineer at a prestige car company said to me several years ago, "now we're selling $30k cars with $30k batteries for $110k, which is sweet but at some time the customer is going to realise they are being rolled". The economics only worked for mass production if the battery prices tumbled continuously, whereas I think they have more or less plateau'd, at a still amazing $0.1/Wh, roughly 1/10 of what a homeowner can buy a similar battery for.

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[GregLocock]

Germany UK and Australia are the crash test dummies in this ongoing economic experiment. Here's a report on the additional cost that German politicians have imposed on their country while benefiting China by actively campaing against nuclear and installing solar and wind instead. Roughly a factor of 2 for a given reduction in CO2 emissions.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/14786451.2024.2355642?needAccess=true

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[GregLocock]

USA green steel

"“I’m still trying to figure out if it even makes sense with the grants because the grant is $500 million, the entire project is $1.6 billion. I still have to pony up $1.1 billion,” Goncalves told the outlet. “I’m not going to do it if the government and the general public are not really supportive of that.”

Goncalves added that he is concerned that his company will lose market share to competitors in India and China, where production is comparatively inexpensive and environmental standards are not as rigorous, according to Politico. To date, purchasers have demonstrated that they would rather buy cheaper, less environmentally-friendly steel than pay a premium for a “green” product.

It is unclear exactly how much more the company’s “green” steel costs buyers, but one estimate from BloombergNEF pegs the premium at about 40%, according to Politico."

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[GregLocock]

UK bans on fossil fuelled cars rolled back

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/labour-car-ban-diesel-2030-hybrids/

In their manifesto, Sir Keir Starmer's party had vowed to ban petrol-powered cars in the next six years - but has now appeared to backtrack.

The document said that the party would ban the sale of “new cars with internal combustion engines” by 2030 as part of efforts to reach net zero.

The language had suggested that new hybrids – which uses a petrol or diesel engine in conjunction with a battery – would be covered by the ban.

In their manifesto, Sir Keir Starmer's party had vowed to ban petrol-powered cars in the next six years - but has now appeared to backtrack.
A government spokesperson told the Telegraph: “This government’s policy has always been to revert to the original 2030 phase out date for the sale of new vehicles with pure internal combustion engines.

“The original phase out date included the provision for some hybrid vehicle sales between 2030 and 2035. We will set out further details on this in due course.”

Cheers

Greg Locock


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