Where climate change poses the most and least risk to American homeowners

[WKTaylor]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/clim...home-insurance-climate-change-housing-market/

Story by Michael J. Coren, with Naema Ahmed and Kevin Crowe, October 15, 2024 at 4:00 a.m.
CAPE CORAL, Fla. — In 2017, Angela and Donald Brudos moved to a modest, ranch-style house where the Caloosahatchee River empties into the vast calm of the Gulf of Mexico. Despite Florida’s reputation for extreme weather, it held out the promise of an affordable paradise where they could retire.

“We felt safe,” said Angela, “because neighbors told us it had never flooded.”
... ...

Regards, Wil Taylor
o Trust - But Verify!
o For those who believe, no proof is required; for those who cannot believe, no proof is possible. [variation, Stuart Chase]
o Unfortunately, in science what You 'believe' is irrelevant. ["Orion", HBA forum]
o Only fools and charlatans know everything and understand everything." -Anton Chekhov

 

[GregLocock]

https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2024/oct/16/where-climate-change-poses-the-most-and-least-risk/ is it really climate change or is it more people living in flood plains and tornado alley? And specifically where the couple lives, yes the coastline is sinking for well understood reasons that have nothing to do with climate change.

"Scientists can say only that climate change’s warmer temperatures are probably intensifying hurricanes such as Ia" No they bloody aren't check out AR6.

 

[Tomfh]

Yes, the official stance is that it’s an undeniable scientific fact that climate change is rapidly intensifying disasters like these. Code red for humanity and all that. That’s the message they present. Yet, behind the scene. there’s only “low confidence” in this assertion, as yoi reference. This drives their urgent push for “attribution science”—an effort to patch the substantial gaps in the research that they nonetheless assure the public is rock-solid.

 

[dik]

Be prepared for changes, almost wherever you live. Warmer, colder, wetter, or dryer.

 

[GregLocock]

Yes global warming can explain every variation in weather. it's like magic.

 

[LionelHutz]

I've known long before 2017, or 2022 that there are lots of coastal areas in Florida at risk of Hurricane damage.

 

[XR250]

Yes global warming can explain every variation in weather. it's like magic.

So, as engineers, y'all are saying that C02 emissions from human consumption have nothing to do with climate change?

 

[GregLocock]

Nope. That sounds like a straw man. Since 1950 we've increased CO2 by half a doubling, and global temp average has risen by 1 deg C, so estimates of climate sensitivity around 2 deg C/doubling are credible. However 2 degC/doubling doesn't cause the sort of temperature changes that make headlines. For instance here's the surface temperature record for USCRN (high quality network of weather stations NOT IN CITIES) for the 48 states, so in 19 years not a whole lot has happened. As cities get bigger and more airconditioned etc weather stations located in them record higher temperatures. Many of the USA's weather stations are in cities or airports, so claims of record temperatures from those weather stations are measuring population growth etc, rather than sensitivity to CO2. Student's t test says that we can be 95% confident that the sample 2015-2023 is from the same population as the sample 2005-2014.

 

[dik]

Tell that to the people in the south eastern states.

 

[GregLocock]

Oh, you mean this graph? The IPCC says there is low confidence that hurricanes are linked to global warming, but of course you knew that and ignored it.

 

[dik]

The Cat 5 chart seems to indicate things are changing since about 1935... might be climate change due to CO2? kDo you have more info before 1850? Greater intensity.

 

[LionelHutz]

Might also be failure to have the same intensity recording capability as today.

 

[GregLocock]

Change in methodology. There was, for instance hardly anybody living in Louisiana to observe whether a given hurricane made landfall in the 1800s, never mind measure the maximum wind speed over a one minute period. Saffir Simpson scaling was defined in 1971, everything before then is back calculated or estimated from the damage done.

 

[rb1957]

going back to your graph of temp on Oct 30th. If I look at that data I think I can see a 1deg C rise over those 20 yrs ... does that fit to the same populations too ?
If I look at your hurricane data it looks to me as though there were more cat 1 storms in the LH portion ... maybe the L:H and RH portions have the same number of storms, but maybe in the RH portion there are more higher intensity storms ?

But all this data is mere flashes in the record, trends develop over much longer periods, and the data collection is "flawed", and blah, blah, blah ...

Weather and Climate is continually changing; are we "King Canute" trying to restrain nature ? (and I'm using the commonly understood interpretation of Canute trying to control the tides, not AIUI the more nuanced interpretation that he was showing his courtiers that he wasn't invincible and couldn't control nature.)

We don't understand, beyond the merest basic concepts, how the various linkages that affect climate interact (probably don't know 1/2 those linkages). IMHO, to say that all the change in climate is due to humanity is hubris. Certainly some is, and maybe it is for the better ... maybe the natural trend would have cooled slightly and that would be a problem. Maybe higher CO2 is increasing crop yields. What I am sure about is that for all the money (ie taxpayer money) we're throwing at this "problem" ... some people are getting very rich (but then that was ever the case). And now I think we're seeing some backlash against these government measures, what with "scrap the [carbon] tax!" and the price of energy is getting very expensive is several countries.

Sure, the consumption of fossil fuels in the latter 1/2 of the 20th century was unsustainable, but market forces would have dealt with that, and created competing power sources. And yes, "market forces" are a very course tool for doing this, and don't account for all the costs ... but better than government meddling.

Not to worry, social unrest (led by the destruction of the middle class) we see to us, long before climate (or personal pronouns) does.