Continue to Site

Eng-Tips is the largest engineering community on the Internet

Intelligent Work Forums for Engineering Professionals

  • Congratulations pierreick on being selected by the Eng-Tips community for having the most helpful posts in the forums last week. Way to Go!

Another mechanism found that they forgot to put in the models.

Status
Not open for further replies.

GregLocock

Automotive
Apr 10, 2001
23,653
As we know the climate models that make the scary predictions are heavily fudged, partly because they don't include messy things like clouds. So here is one aspect they are missing- sulphides emitted by plankton that inititiate cloud formation.

Despite being among the most studied climate forcers, quantification of the radiative effects of sulfur aerosols remains a challenge for global climate models, especially in the Southern Ocean where notable radiative differences between climate model simulations and satellite observations suggest that the effects of natural aerosols are being underestimated

But the science is settled! https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adq2465 for more laughs.
 
and yes Virginia, clouds are important even if your models just sort of average them out. OK this weather rather than climate but it is the sort of missing detail that the economic future of the West is being decided.


1733532302664.png
 
It's easy to blame the El Nino/La Nina cycle for sudden spikes, although I suppose you might wonder if the PMO is a symptom and not the cause (it seems reasonable that changes in water temperature will change cloud distribution, but I don't think it has been proved).
image_2024-12-07_115747558.png


It's all a bit chicken and egg so far as I can see. Anyway, that's a great graphic. One thing I've noticed is that many of these climate enthusiast websites aren't getting updated.
 
I don't know why... with increased ocean temperatures, other than for droughts, I would have thought cloud cover would have increased. I suspect that cloud cover increases global warming. Are you sure they missed it?

"One of the most fundamental questions about climate change is also one of the thorniest: How much, exactly, will the Earth warm in response to future greenhouse gas emissions?

The answer, scientists say, lies in the sky above our heads. Clouds are the fluffy, unlikely gatekeepers of climate change—they play a critical role in how quickly the world warms.

A series of recent studies have shed new light on that role. As the world warms, cloud cover will change across the globe. And these changing clouds will probably speed up global warming."
 
Last edited:
Nope, the models that predict the scary numbers don't explicitly model clouds. And although I don't particularly like shooting the messenger, SciAm used to be a serious if entertaining magazine, but like New Scientist it has swallowed the climate catastrophe dogma holus bolus and is no longer worth reading.
 
Nope, the models that predict the scary numbers don't explicitly model clouds
So the models may be underestimating the effects?
 
Here's what IPCC says. They don't know.

8.6.3.2.4 Conclusion on cloud feedbacks

Despite some advances in the understanding of the physical processes that control the cloud response to climate change and in the evaluation of some components of cloud feedbacks in current models, it is not yet possible to assess which of the model estimates of cloud feedback is the most reliable. However, progress has been made in the identification of the cloud types, the dynamical regimes and the regions of the globe responsible for the large spread of cloud feedback estimates among current models. This is likely to foster more specific observational analyses and model evaluations that will improve future assessments of climate change cloud feedbacks
 
What a strange article. It announces that the latest models eliminate any of the estimates of climate sensitivity below 3 degrees. Yet the real world has warmed by 1.2 deg C, in response to an increase in carbon of 0.6 of a doubling, which is 2.0 deg C/doubling of CO2
plot_warming_level_indicators.png
co2_data_mlo.png




But the computer says....
 
Last edited:
I don't deny, that it's a bit of a 'turkey shoot'. The consequences are so horrendous that I'm surprised that no one is taking this seriously.
 
Well sure, in some people's imaginations. The consequences of an asteroid smashing into the earth are demonstrably very horrendous, so where's the funding for my giant laser on the moon? The point is we have adapted to the changes in climate since the Little Ice Age and if allowed will carry on doing so.
 
The point is we have adapted to the changes in climate since the Little Ice Age and if allowed will carry on doing so.
Over millennia not decades... It could be a lot more interesting.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Part and Inventory Search

Sponsor