Can lithium batteries power all cars in America? 23

[Space car]

Can lithium batteries power all cars in America? The answer may be “Yes,” but we must change direction if we are to have any chance. Based on recent history, after the coronavirus pandemic is over, US new car sales will return to about 17.5 million units per year. When we get to a first year for all-electric car production, how much lithium will be needed? A lithium ion battery contains 0.3 grams of lithium per amp-hour of battery capacity, or about 0.09 kg of lithium per kilowatt-hour (kWh)

https://batteryguy.com/kb/knowledge-base/how-to-calculate-the-lithium-content-in-a-battery/

Lithium mines measure their output in kilograms of lithium carbonate. In terms of mine output, it takes 0.96 kg of lithium carbonate per kWh of battery capacity. Assume each car has an average battery capacity of 60 kWh. Multiplying by 17.5 million cars, the amount of lithium mine output needed will be 1.0 million metric tonnes of lithium carbonate for each year of new EVs
In 2020, total world mine output of lithium carbonate is projected to be about 0.7 million metric tonnes. The world is now scrambling to find more lithium. There are more problems:
• US auto sales are only about 22% of vehicle sales worldwide.
• Power companies are aggressively purchasing Lithium batteries for the grid.
Some say that science can solve the problem—"another, even better battery will be found that may not even need lithium.” Well, no, that isn’t the situation. No other element carries as much charge for its weight as does ionized lithium and the lithium ion cell produces a prodigious 3.7 volts. Current batteries obtain about 85% of the theoretical limit of energy storage for their lithium content. Future improvements will only be in battery structure, weight, and charging speed.

CONCLUSION: Power companies don’t need light-weight batteries—they MUST use something else! America must vastly increase domestic mining and processing of lithium and other strategic materials such as cobalt, nickel, aluminum, and rare earth metals needed for an electrified economy. Plus we can learn to be more thrifty. The auto industry can make more efficient electric vehicles that need only half as much battery capacity.

 

[moltenmetal]

There is plenty of lithium on earth- more than sufficient to transition the entire existing vehicle count to battery EVs. As EVs are built out, dead batteries from the last wave of EVs will start to be recycled (more for their Ni, Co, Cu and Al content than for the Li), and the Li will be recycled- because if you go after the others efficiently, you get the Li back easily enough.

The transition won't happen suddenly. It'll ramp up gradually.

In reality, nobody really needs 60 kWh worth of EV battery. It's just what people are used to from driving IC engine cars. As people become more comfortable with EVs and charging infrastructure gets built out more, you'll see more "commuter cars" - super cheap, built with smaller packs.

Kudos to getting the lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) per kWh roughly correct. Most screw that up, confusing LCE with actual lithium mass, which is only about 160 g per kWh. There's a lot of garbage data out there.

We agree that the lithium ion battery, which is optimized for energy density per unit weight and volume- neither of which matter much to grid storage- is likely not the optimal solution FOR grid storage- beyond some very high value, very short term grid stability applications. And so far, that's all Li ion batteries are being used for on the grid- that and people going totally off-grid.

 

[miningman]

No problemo. Like Moltenmetal states , there is absolutely no shortage of Lithium across the world. As a miner, Ill guarantee that the mining industry can scale up to any desired level of annual production , with one proviso. The costs might be more than society is willing to bear. How badly does society want this material??.

 

[JohnRBaker]

Society doesn't want the lithium, society wants clean air. If the price gets too high, society will find an alternative.

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
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[Comcokid]

Actually, lithium batteries are not being recycled. Even Elon's big battery factories and Tesla just dump the batteries. I work at a company that uses significant numbers of lithium batteries, and returned batteries are sorted into cells and everything else (circuit boards, busbars, etc). the cells are discharged and go in the dumpster. The other metals go a recycling direction. The reason the cells are even separated is to discharge them less they cause a fire on the trucks or at the landfill.

 

[CWB1]

When we get to a first year for all-electric car production, how much lithium will be needed?

Depends on how fast change is foisted upon us. If we're still using lithium, a LOT more than anyone figures due to the ~10 year lifespan. Hopefully we're not legislated down that road until we have a reasonable solution based on a better technology.

 

[moltenmetal]

Comcokid: somebody is doing a big, big no-no then.

Lithium ion batteries are NOT safe to landfill. They contain water soluble solvents which are also combustible, as well as leachate toxic materials.

Lithium ion batteries are being recycled in large masses already in China.

Post consumer collection and recycling here in North America is in its infancy.

However, they are better ores for all the metals they contain- for the Li, Co, Ni, Al and Cu- than any such ores mined on earth.

One of the big problems with mined ores for battery use is the need for purification. The Li in Li ion batteries contains no Na, K, Ca or Mg, so that means a lot less purification effort. Similarly the Ni and Co contain no Fe, and the Al and Cu are present as reduced metals, so quite easy to separate.

 

[moltenmetal]

miningman: bigger question is how much investment in new lithium production can be expected despite falling prices...

Direct lithium extraction from brines is going to potentially be a big source going forward. Some brines being harvested already for other things, like the Smackover brine in Arkansas extracted for bromine production, can easily have its Li removed- Standard Lithium is doing this in a demo plant at considerable scale right now:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6XeZ2B9Hi6M&t=19s&ab_channel=StandardLithium

 

[JohnRBaker]

Here in Irvine, CA, we're not allowed to dispose of any sort of batteries in either the recycle bin or the trash bin. They have a special hazardous waste drop-off site where you can take things like engine oil, paint cans, empty aerosol cans, electronic waste and batteries, everything except medical waste. In fact, they'll give you a free battery disposal containers to collect them in. I go about once or twice a year, mostly with aerosol cans and batteries, as well as the occasional old can of paint or garden chemical.

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
EX-Product 'Evangelist'
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without

 

[GregLocock]

Landfill sites are the mines of the 22nd century, as has been alluded to above.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376

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[Comcokid]

GregLocock - The 2015 book "Junkyard Planet" by Adam Minter is a fascinating read on worldwide scrap recycling. In the 70's- 80's large electrical motors were difficult to tear down and separate the copper and steel, so they were put into industrial landfills. After 2000 with China's need for steel and copper, and the emergence of the large metal shredding machines, these landfills were reopened and mined.

 

[gerhardl]

Battery technology is only one of the factors making electrical vehicles (cars and transport vehicles in general, including boats, ship, airplane and airships) possibly commercial competitive in the future.

Another main factor is how cheap (and clean) electrical power can be produced and made accessible, and also how strong the worlds will is to progress in this way.

In this context everything depends on everything else, as usual.

To the original question. Others have pointed out the large quantities of lithium on earth, without even mentioning what lies below sea level... (Oh yes, seriously discussed with deep sea technology!)

And battery development seems already to have surpassed the obstacle of lithium batteries..(search for: new developments in electric storage batteries)

As engineers we tend to make a pointed questions, and will get pointed answers.

As often stated: a helicopter view or thinking 'outside the box' will give a multitude of answers and a multitude of new questions...

 

[JohnRBaker]

Another adage (albeit slightly modified): if your only solution looks like a hammer, all your problems will look like a nail.

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
EX-Product 'Evangelist'
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without

 

[Doodler3D]

Lithium is not an issue - Cobalt+Nickel and the cathode/anode active material pose bigger problems. The $60/kWh battery cost in 2030 looks unrealistic assuming increasing costs involved in mining these metals in an environmentally friendly way.

 

[moltenmetal]

Nickel abundance is absolutely, positively NOT an issue. There are whole islands of laterite ores containing up to 1% nickel and 0.1% cobalt.

Cobalt's problem isn't a lack of abundance either- rather, its problem is that it is abundant in a desperately poor, corrupt and dysfunctional country where ethical mining corporations fear to tread. So poor people- and their kids- mine cobalt ore to pay for tomorrow's dinner, and sell it to unscrupulous Chinese middlemen who take 2/3 of the profit. Of course nobody who complains about cobalt in EV batteries actually cares much about poor people- otherwise they'd be lobbying for MORE cobalt mining and doing something about DRC's many dysfunctions so those people can profit from the minerals that are their collective birthright, just as the Saudis, Texans and Albertans etc. profited from the oil found under their patches of dirt. The industry is thrifting cobalt out of its cathode formulations to avoid the whole issue. Tesla already has a high Ni cathode with no Co, and of course lithium iron phosphate contains no Co or Ni- it is very safe and long lasting, but has a lower energy density than the Ni containing cathode materials.

Mining and refining Ni and Co in an environmentally friendly way has to be compared against the thousands of kg of fossil fuel mining, refining and burning that will no longer be needed as a consequence of using the batteries and recharging them with ever-greener, ever-cheaper renewable electricty.

The batteries at end of life are a better ore for the metals they contain than any such ore found in nature. They are being recycled right now in China, and the recycling methods will improve- and will become more economical- as the volume of dead batteries to feed them rises to levels permitting the construction of large-scale plants to do the recycling.

All energy production, storage and use technologies have negative environmental impacts- all real ones at least. So the only meaningful comparison is between them. Comparing impacts in isolation is pointless and in fact is a big part of the nirvana fallacy.

 

[hokie66]

As someone largely ignorant of battery technology, and if a lot of the material can be recycled, what in one of these new type batteries is used up? Or in other words, what makes them 'dead'?

 

[IRstuff]

Typically the chemical processing, which is the where the energy comes from in the first place. There are a number of reasons for the battery to lose its energy capacity over time, including loss or corrosion of electrode materials, poisoning of the electrolyte, or other damage to the electrolyte.

https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/bu_307_electrolyte

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert!

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[CWB1]

Another main factor is how cheap (and clean) electrical power can be produced and made accessible, and also how strong the worlds will is to progress in this way.

Unfortunately stateside the greenies have had us regressing for half a century, removing cheap hydro power to "reclaim" nature while simultaneously demanding we rid ourselves of fossil fuels and nuclear capacity. We are supposed to idolize our superiors on the socialized west coast while ignoring brownouts and ridiculous energy costs.

 

[Comcokid]

All those green windmills to generate power. But wind power is not steady and generating capacity can vary quickly. So you have to back up wind power with alternate power generation that can be quickly brought on line to keep power steady. And that means natural gas power generation. That's why Oil and Gas tycoon T. Boone Pickins was such an advocate for renewable energy. Ever hear of the "Pickins Plan"?

Green energy makes a lot of money for the fossil fuel folks and dumps the carbon in someone else's backyard.

 

[JohnRBaker]

There are some other 'green' energy sources which have only attracted a limited amount of interest, but that could soon change:

Are Tides And Waves The Missing Piece Of The Green Energy Puzzle?

Solar and wind are energy powerhouses until the sky is dark or the air is still. An ancient source of energy — the tides — could soon offer a predictable alternative.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/tidal-power_n_5fbe94aac5b63d1b7708c895

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
EX-Product 'Evangelist'
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without