Can lithium batteries power all cars in America? 23

[Space car]

Can lithium batteries power all cars in America? The answer may be “Yes,” but we must change direction if we are to have any chance. Based on recent history, after the coronavirus pandemic is over, US new car sales will return to about 17.5 million units per year. When we get to a first year for all-electric car production, how much lithium will be needed? A lithium ion battery contains 0.3 grams of lithium per amp-hour of battery capacity, or about 0.09 kg of lithium per kilowatt-hour (kWh)

https://batteryguy.com/kb/knowledge-base/how-to-calculate-the-lithium-content-in-a-battery/

Lithium mines measure their output in kilograms of lithium carbonate. In terms of mine output, it takes 0.96 kg of lithium carbonate per kWh of battery capacity. Assume each car has an average battery capacity of 60 kWh. Multiplying by 17.5 million cars, the amount of lithium mine output needed will be 1.0 million metric tonnes of lithium carbonate for each year of new EVs
In 2020, total world mine output of lithium carbonate is projected to be about 0.7 million metric tonnes. The world is now scrambling to find more lithium. There are more problems:
• US auto sales are only about 22% of vehicle sales worldwide.
• Power companies are aggressively purchasing Lithium batteries for the grid.
Some say that science can solve the problem—"another, even better battery will be found that may not even need lithium.” Well, no, that isn’t the situation. No other element carries as much charge for its weight as does ionized lithium and the lithium ion cell produces a prodigious 3.7 volts. Current batteries obtain about 85% of the theoretical limit of energy storage for their lithium content. Future improvements will only be in battery structure, weight, and charging speed.

CONCLUSION: Power companies don’t need light-weight batteries—they MUST use something else! America must vastly increase domestic mining and processing of lithium and other strategic materials such as cobalt, nickel, aluminum, and rare earth metals needed for an electrified economy. Plus we can learn to be more thrifty. The auto industry can make more efficient electric vehicles that need only half as much battery capacity.

 

[SnTMan]

"Can lithium batteries power all cars in America?" Possibly, but it's going to be a worldwide problem, as governments the world over are banning sale of new IC vehicles by 2030 or 2035.

The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

 

[hokie66]

Banning sale of IC vehicles? They may say that now, but governments change. They may find those target dates to be unachievable. It may work in small, heavily populated countries, but in large countries with lot of wide open spaces, e.g. Australia, Canada, I doubt it.

 

[SnTMan]

hokie I don't disagree with you, I don't think the Movers and Shakers have thought about the whole situation for more than a few minutes at a time. Nobody really knows how it's going to play out.

What I am pretty sure about is that M & S are going to be well insulated from any negative effects. As usual.

The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

 

[BrianPetersen]

"Banning the sale of combustion-engine vehicles by X date" is something they're saying for political points (and, in part, to drive change). As the date approaches, the infrastructure limitations that would require the government to spend money in order to solve (generating capacity, distribution to remote locations, distribution system capacity, etc) plus sales figures for EVs versus combustion-engine vehicles (which may hit a wall if the infrastucture issues aren't resolved) will probably make it quite apparent that a complete ban isn't feasible and it will end up getting postponed (or cancelled).

I have little doubt that the charging infrastructure for EVs is going to improve. I have little doubt that for daily-driver commuter vehicles, EVs are likely to become the most favored choice. (My next daily-driver commuter vehicle is likely to be an EV.) Governments in various places are likely to push this along by either banning combustion-engine vehicles from city centres or applying heavy taxes/tolls to them. (Already happening) I can see the 2030 timeframe for being roughly when EV sales figures become comparable to ICE sales figures instead of being the current small fraction of them. In Norway, as of right now, EVs are about 60% of total vehicle sales. That's boosted by heavy taxes on combustion-engine vehicles, but still ... that's the direction this is heading. If they can do it ...

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/0...-off-the-charts-record-ev-market-share-of-82/

 

[LionelHutz]

Enough green renewable energy to power all these new EV's is a pipe dream right now, and I'm not seeing any new solution that changes this yet. The parallel hope is to also power the existing electrical grid from green energy and right now there is no green energy that can come close to achieving this goal.

As an amusing case to me, the City of Toronto TTC is switching to electric buses. What they never mention in all the media hyping for this green incentive is that the buses are being charged with NG generators. Toronto Hydro doesn't have the grid infrastructure to supply the necessary charging power to the bus garages. 6 x 1.2MW generators were installed at the bus garage being used as the initial test site and similar installations are being planned at other bus garages. Shortly after the generators and switchgear was placed, they planted a row of closely spaced evergreen trees/bushes to hide the equipment from the public view when driving past the garage. The switchgear did have utility tie breakers, but there is no current plan to use them. More likely, they will connect to co-generate back onto the grid.

Here's a picture shortly after the generators were put on site before the trees were planted. I didn't fine one showing the trees, but I didn't look too hard.

Still, even though an electric bus is currently about $250k more than a diesel I do believe they will payback in operating costs and they will be more green than a diesel bus despite their dubiously marketed green-ness.

 

[SnTMan]

LionelHutz, we shall not go around looking behind the curtains

The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

 

[SuperSalad]

I'm not going to suggest it doesn't have trade-offs and downsides, as everything does, but there are potential benefits to stationary power generation compared to mobile for emission controls. I'm a little more versed in how that relates to diesel generators vs. vehicles, but that also has more to with NOx than carbon emissions, so NG generators might not have the same benefits. Assuming carbon capture is an option at some point though, it would be easier on stationary plants than vehicles, no?

That all being said, the compounding energy losses while converting from chemical, to electric, to motive make me wonder how efficient it really is compared to directly from chemical to motive.



Andrew H.

http://www.MotoTribology.com

 

[davefitz]

Samsung revealed a new silver-carbon solid state EV battery that eliminates the need for lithium.Their claim is a 500 mile range per charge and no battery fires from growth of dendrites.

If all US vehicles were EV's, then in order for that paradign to work with an all renewable electrical supply system, most EV's would need to be parked and plugged in to the grid during the peak daytime solar generation time period 10 am -4 pm . Also , the home rechargers and load centers would need to be 2-way, to allow small household loads ( lighting, internet) to be powered by the car battery if there was an electrical outage.

I understand there is anew EV on the market, called Kandi K27, with a sale price below $10K USD. Maybe a better alternative is buy a used Leaf and replace the battery with an upgraded battery.



"...when logic, and proportion, have fallen, sloppy dead..." Grace Slick

 

[hokie66]

In Brisbane, there is a mixed bag. The Council was in the process of going to all gas powered, then a couple of 'explosions' occurred. So now, they are transitioning back to diesel. Knee jerk reaction?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11...swaps-exploding-gas-buses-for-diesel/12840670

 

[BrianPetersen]

EVs are more efficient than combustion-engine vehicles even if the grid power is all coal. The central generating plant can run at a high-efficiency operating point almost all the time. 40% thermal efficiency is not uncommon. A petrol engine in a car is maaaybe capable of being 30-ish% efficient at an operating point that is hardly seen in real driving, and it spends an awful lot of time at operating conditions that are well below that, if not zero.

Yes, the EV has charge-discharge losses in the battery; these are pretty low for a good lithium battery. Offsetting that ... the combustion engine has a very complicated mechanical transmission that is order-of-magnitude same efficiency as the charge-discharge efficiency in a battery (85% - 90%); the single-speed reduction gear in an EV has insignificant losses. (No torque converter, no oil pump, no clutch plates sliding against each other, much lower oil-churning losses)

The grid distribution that we have is in no way capable of supporting a fully EV fleet right now. Even setting aside fast-charging ... imagine if your entire neighborhood had one (or two) EVs charging at 7 kW demand simultaneously. I highly doubt if the distribution network is designed to have every household at max demand all the time.

BUT ... Even if the alleged 2030 - 2035 timeframe for changing to substantially-all new vehicles being EV, that's 10 - 15 years off, and then it's going to take another 10 - 15 years for those vehicles to substantially replace the existing fleet. An overnight flip-the-switch transition to a substantially-all-EV fleet not only isn't going to happen, but it cannot happen. But a gradual shift over 25 years ... there's time to react.

The time that it takes to build (let's say) a nuclear plant ... needs to be kept in mind.

 

[JohnRBaker]

And 25 years from now, how many of those EV's will be garaged in a house with a solar roof/home battery infrastructure?

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
EX-Product 'Evangelist'
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without

 

[IRstuff]

There appears to be rather large disparity in efficiencies

EVs are on the order of 25 kWh/100 mi, while ICE cars are on the order of 125 kWh/100 mi

https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks... is the standard,per gallon to be equivalent.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg

faq731-376 forum1529 Entire Forum list

http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

 

[SnTMan]

And 25 years from now, how many of those EV's will be garaged in a house with a solar roof/home battery infrastructure?

And how many will be parked at apartments with...who knows what?

The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

 

[davefitz]

One style of fast charger stores energy kinetically ( via a high speed flywheel) during non charging periods, and can recharge a large EV battery in minutes. It may have an 8 hr cycle time, so the impact on the grid is minimal. In any case, most commuter cars are left in a daytime parked condition for 9 hrs , so they do not need fast chargers.

"...when logic, and proportion, have fallen, sloppy dead..." Grace Slick

 

[IRstuff]

In any case, most commuter cars are left in a daytime parked condition for 9 hrs

Keeping banker's hours, are we? ;-)

Nevertheless, the question is who's going to pay for all the infrastructure in the parking lot, although, if we can't adequately deal with COVID, only a few chargers will be needed.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg

faq731-376 forum1529 Entire Forum list

http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

 

[LionelHutz]

How people who live in city areas where they have no parking area on their property and have to park on the street are the ones I'm curious about as far as getting their electric cars charged.

 

[BrianPetersen]

Reality will set in. It always does.

When governments clue in to how much infrastructure spending is required to bring countless megawatts of charging-station capability to dense urban areas with no private parking ... something will give. Imagine the cost of replacing every street-parking meter with a 6.6 kW Level 2 charger. Think about what to do about all the areas with on-street parking without marking meters that would still need that.

Apartment buildings? All well and good to have three or four EV parking spots with charging stations. What happens when every parking spot needs to have a charging station? That's what it would come to in the dream world of all vehicles being EVs.

I suppose private ownership of vehicles is unfavourably regarded, especially in areas like that. Maybe someone dreams of it being all public transit, or all ride-sharing.

And it's true, in many such areas, you CAN get away without owning a car. Lots of people do. I can't. The nature of my job means not relying on public transit. My car has all sorts of stuff in it that I need from time to time. That doesn't work in someone's ride-sharing and public-transit utopia.

And that's why I don't live in an area like that!

Does something need to "give"? Absolutely.

 

[IRstuff]

What happens when every parking spot needs to have a charging station? That's what it would come to in the dream world of all vehicles being EVs.

My son's condo just upgraded to having charging cables for all parking spots, EXCEPT HIS, because it's not near a wall

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg

faq731-376 forum1529 Entire Forum list

http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

 

[SuperSalad]

My son's condo just upgraded to having charging cables for all parking spots, EXCEPT HIS, because it's not near a wall

Well duh, how would it stand up? Is is just supposed to float there?

For that to work, they'd have to invent some sort of "pole" or something and I just don't think we're quite there yet....

Andrew H.

http://www.MotoTribology.com

 

[JohnRBaker]

Tesla recharging stations are free-standing:

June 2016 (Sony a6000)

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
EX-Product 'Evangelist'
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without